Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?

[knocker]

The gfs this evening has the trough in the western Atlantic coming under severe pressure T120 and it disrupts and by T144 it is dishing out similar treatment to the ridge which takes on a positive tilt across the UK which initiates a north easterly wind across the northern half with temps around 3-5C. The pressure continues and by Saturday frontal rain is moving south east down the country with temps a tad above average generally. Although this does facilitate the advection of cold air, the position of the tilt keeps it east of Britain

The same time yesterday

Edited January 19, 2019 by knocker

[chris78]

1 minute ago, PolarWarsaw said:

Only If you completely ignore the fact that models, when an active period of weather is shown have completely failed to actually verify at Day 7, let alone Day 10 for pretty much this entire winter.

If you wish to take anything seriously at that time away then that's your prerogative. 

Totally agree PW, the only thing I would say is, very few people were saying the same when people were going OTT about the runs yesterday, I fact the few people who were cautious yesterday got a fair bit of stick  

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, Dominic Carey said:

Is likely the the snowy charts of yesterday could make a come back?

I'd watch the 1st week of Feb for the next real good cold shot potential. Maybe more snowy than severely cold looking at the trends thus far I've seen, but get the jet to the south and some form of northern blocking and the rest will come in time.

But as BA said, look at the broad trends, today they have been more and more towards blocking getting going around 300hrs.

[IDO]

Two runs in a row with a similar theme from the GFS. The NW to SE discharge of the Canadian Vortex from around D8 taking a week to disperse from Canada. PM shots in a generally cold upper flow with repeated zonal shots.

By D16:

Takes us to Feb 3 for our next attempt at blocking in such a scenario, which IMO is quite viable, though the timing may change. The Azores High is a semi-permanent feature which will heighten the chances of a GH in Feb.

So cold likely as we move through the rest of the month but blocking looks gone till Feb.

[feb1991blizzard]

Here we go again, the GEFS mean better at 96 just to keep us interested - someone just likes us to suffer this - still glad though because it could have ramifications re - stopping these hideous op  runs like the Icon and the  UKMO GFS from verifying.

Edited January 19, 2019 by feb1991blizzard

[kold weather]

4 minutes ago, IDO said:

Two runs in a row with a similar theme from the GFS. The NW to SE discharge of the Canadian Vortex from around D8 taking a week to disperse from Canada. PM shots in a generally cold upper flow with repeated zonal shots.

By D16:

Takes us to Feb 3 for our next attempt at blocking in such a scenario, which IMO is quite viable, though the timing may change. The Azores High is a semi-permanent feature which will heighten the chances of a GH in Feb.

So cold likely as we move through the rest of the month but blocking looks gone till Feb.

IDO, this has been cropping up in the ensembles quite frequently, although obviously it was somewhat masked by the fact the models already had a fairly good scandi block, so we are starting from scratch now which probably delays everything another few days at least.

This is something like the 5-6th GFS run to make some good northern blocking in early Feb, definite trend.

PS, I'd let the easterly go, its done and not going to happen now...look further ahead, there IS some real opportunities if you can look past this first fail.

Edited January 19, 2019 by kold weather

[Runcible Spoon]

I think this sorry episode may at least help keep some more grounded when day 5/6 cold/snowy charts show up on the models.

We can celebrate what they show as being great charts, but they don't show great actual weather as great weather is only that at T0,

I think I'd prefer to see mild storms showing as they are less prone to disappointing than BFTE charts that rarely verify or even cold zonality that often delivers rain episodes or sleety stuff leaving you think what could have been.

 

[bluearmy]

In a game which is currently fine margins, note the gefs 12z re amplify a tad on the mean at day 4 which probably takes it back to close to its 00z 

[Summer Sun]

7 day average unchanged from the 06z

Milder air spreading a bit further south on the 12z at D7

[Mr Frost]

11 minutes ago, edinburgh_1992 said:

I'm in Scotland and lower areas could very well see double digit temperatures from next Friday. +4/+5 uppers and cloud cover, nothing stopping the temperatures from gradually rising way above average. Let's face it, it's going to be mild from north to south

Mate I am based in Scotland and I think you live in a Scotland that is based in outer space!

I am on the West coast and have a high of 5 degrees for next Friday going by the Metoffice - Aviemore a high of 2 degrees ect ect...

John is spot on with his post.

 

 

Edited January 19, 2019 by Mr Frost

[Methuselah]

I'm sure this the same as the chart that promised 'disruptive snow' before the end of November? Has Trump signed an Executive Order instructing the GFS peeps to cut & paste?

[bluearmy]

Quite a bit of support for the gem solution on the gefs .... 

[Mike Poole]

Just drop this in, FV3 at T96

Maybe still chance this will link?

[Stuie]

3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

7 day average unchanged from the 06z

Milder air spreading a bit further south on the 12z at D7

Isn`t that quite bizarre? Milder air pushing in from the North?

[Weathizard]

Panels remain with some interest at day 6, okay not as good as last few days but certainly enough in there to keep interest

[kold weather]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Quite a bit of support for the gem solution on the gefs .... 

GEM is also a really good middle ground run which keeps the cold pool over Europe and close enough to tap into.

Interesting if the ensembles are trending towards that solution.

[nick sussex]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Quite a bit of support for the gem solution on the gefs .... 

The problem is BA the ops are moving in the wrong direction and given the timeframes involved the ships already sailed at day 5 . The higher resolution would surely mean they take precedence .

Unless the ECM does something different then so far this evening it’s been all downhill barring the GEM which I only go to in desperate straw clutching mode !

We’ll know soon enough when the ECM comes out .

[The PIT]

5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I'm sure this the same as the chart that promised 'disruptive snow' before the end of November? Has Trump signed an Executive Order instructing the GFS peeps to cut & paste?

Yeh due to the shut down they are not allowed to run the GFS so it's MS Paint and a bit of copying and pasting. Just wait until one accidentally copies and pastes a Dec 2010 chart by mistake.

GFS back to it's progressive self so the question is will ECM continue it's latest drift towards a less cold theme than previously shown.

[The Northern Ramper]

The ECM is going to flip, I can feel it

[Borei]

9 minutes ago, kold weather said:

I'd watch the 1st week of Feb for the next real good cold shot potential. Maybe more snowy than severely cold looking at the trends thus far I've seen, but get the jet to the south and some form of northern blocking and the rest will come in time.

But as BA said, look at the broad trends, today they have been more and more towards blocking getting going around 300hrs.

The next potential has been at 300 hours for over a month.

Personally I believe neither the models beyond 144 nor those who tell us about tele-connected led macro events.

The truth seems to be that our understanding of atmospheric science is still a long way from being able to predict very much into the future.

Thus isn't a plague on 'experts' it's just a reality check. The MO thread is a testament to exaggerated claims and eventual frustration.

Model output have evolved over the last 24 hours to a much less favorable outlook for U.K. cold. It may change again ........ and that's the point. It constantly illustrates the limitations of human understanding. We all need to re-connect with this reality in our attitude towards what is shown in MO.

 

[kold weather]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The problem is BA the ops are moving in the wrong direction and given the timeframes involved the ships already sailed at day 5 . The higher resolution would surely mean they take precedence .

Unless the ECM does something different then so far this evening it’s been all downhill barring the GEM which I only go to in desperate straw clutching mode !

We’ll know soon enough when the ECM comes out .

I think the thing is if we can find a synoptic set-up tjhat keeps the cold close by, if we do get the northern blocking in early Feb like being suggested may help to drag in colder air as LPs head south.

I still think the easterly is done, but doesn't mean we can't get some sneak surface cold if the Scandi high is close enough and it doesn't just collapse like the operational runs.

[Updated_Weather]

Just now, Ramp said:

The ECM is going to flip, I can feel it

We can only hope!

We are clutching at thin straws here!

[Met4Cast]

One positive is that besides a couple of runs the FV3-GFS wasn't really all that interested, worth making a note for future reference when it finally takes over from the current GFS

[Steve Thexton]

2 minutes ago, Leon1 said:

Well, the FV3 is meant to better because it's the updated one isn't it which gives me a bit of encouragement.

And however unlikely with reference to  that frame, has a far greater probability in being correct than anything modelled in Feb at this point

Edited January 19, 2019 by Steve Thexton

[Scandinavian High.]

I don’t believe the ship as sailed gem could have picked up an signal meto are still shouting cold let’s see what the ecm does hasn’t this happened before modles to drop then pick up a days or so later.???

Edited January 19, 2019 by abbie123