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Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

Clusters of this morning keep hope alive to me come on ECM throw us a lifeline! UKMO really isn’t a good model despite what’s often been said on here, I’d take a solitary GFS at day 5/6 over UKMO any day. The times UKMO has triumphed has been very rare, think it may have done in 2013. Broken clock?

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Adding insult to injury GFS pushing -10c - -15c uppers down towards the Balkans and Greece next weekend......lets just hope summer highers aren't going to be anchored too far east as well. 

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
2 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Just read from Facebook that the storm in the states is not behaving as forcast.. A lot of people that expected it to be bad have not had snow.. No idea on detail as its from people posting on Facebook... 

Plus I have equally no idea what impact this has on us... 

What I do know is that the information delay into the models our side will probs be about 12 hours... Ish 

Someone with more knowledge shed some light? 

Models have already updated this information. The ECM originally was the one showing the 850hp profile being much warmer than the others, and no surprise, its nailed it with other models with their tails between their legs following suit.

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
2 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

The thing is Crewe that your missing the point. Most of us on here don,t expect months of snowy Armageddon every winter. Most of us would be happy with two weeks of cold/snowy weather and that would make our winter, ano matter how less than brilliant the charts might look today that is still entirely possible and given the continued background signals actually quite likely.  

Oh absolutely. I'd be happy to see a couple of cm fall a this point (and we may well get that eventually). 

My point is, this winter had so much promise. I for one expected January cold- I was very bullish about this early on in the season... I'm happy to admit I was wrong though... Albeit unhappy with how things have turned out so far in terms of actual winter weather. 

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
3 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Just read from Facebook that the storm in the states is not behaving as forcast.. A lot of people that expected it to be bad have not had snow.. No idea on detail as its from people posting on Facebook... 

Plus I have equally no idea what impact this has on us... 

What I do know is that the information delay into the models our side will probs be about 12 hours... Ish 

Someone with more knowledge shed some light? 

I pointed this out earlier in the thread.

Now the storm is fully developed you'd expect the models to have a fairly decent handling on it's tracking, at least enough to swing the balance one way or another, it's possible 12z data is a little behind the actual track of the storm and the 18z/overnight runs will correct and bring back the Easterly, though I think that's major straw clutching

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Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
5 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

All that energy around southern greenland and the Lobe of death, same old problem... the models never pick up spoiler features until you get into that day 4 or so range where small nuances that make a big difference turn up, what happened to the day 10 charts we were seeing where the vortex was being broken apart? Clearly the SSW isn’t effecting the one area we need it too badly.

This situation is akin to having a straight flush in poker and your opponent pulling a royal flush, you just have to laugh... how can we be so unlucky?  

89CBA0DA-ED70-4B84-BD29-0BC36AC85FE9.png

I get the feeling that the GFS may be being a tad over progressive here. There are still some disagreements between the main models of the depth and track of the LP systems and until these are resolved, there could still be changes ahead in the short term.

Whilst the fantastic coldageddon charts may have disappeared, the overall picture may still remain positive. ECM will be interesting later, to see if it sides more with UKMO or GFS. I may be interpreting the charts incorrectly, but in my eyes, the 12z GFS high that collapses towards Iberia would not need much change to head up NE across the UK and maybe somewhere favourable from there? God damn another UK high..hope not! 

Edited by Chris K
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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.

Lol, couldn't make it up. Bitter uppers approach from the west.

gfs-1-210.png

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Really impressive cold coming from the west. Even if it is overdone (probable) there is still some great cold aloft and high lapse rates, very heavy constant snow showers for Scotland in particular on this run, western exposed locations could easily go 6-9 inches from that flow, and possibly more.

Ireland also smashed on this run.

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Thunderstorms, Heat (Summer) & Snow in Winter
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL

Honestly with all the background potentials what's to say the models won't flip again? 

Some posts make them (the models) sound like living entities that can conjure the weather up depending on what mood they're in. 

The weather is complex but we're looking at so many potentials that writing off winter for another X amount of time is silly. It will do what it does in the end but I for one am keeping the faith. Unless we're way down the line with nothing then my glass is half full. 

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Just now, johnholmes said:

Yet another quite large untruth.

I am in the process of trying to type a post to attempt to get some sense back into this thread, bear with me please. Your post is 'almost' tor for parts of the far S and SW but something of an exaggeration elsewhere for Scotland, 

Like I said bear with me and I'll come back with my view of the run compared to the 06Z. Remember also you are 168h down the line. Does this 12 compare to that from yesterday?

Why do I care about whats going on in Scotland when I live in Bournemouth? Double figures widely along the south coast and through the south west, 9c in London and up through the midlands. 

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Posted
  • Location: South Staffordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: South Staffordshire

Same old, same old in both the models and in the behaviour of some in this thread. 

I've said it once and I will say it again, sometimes as much as it is fun, having models that go out to T384 is not useful for expectations and people's hopes. Naturally, such is human nature people start getting excited and taking what are, in effect explorative computerised patterns seriously. However, to have a far more 'balanced' view of things people NEED to start understanding that until we have cross model agreement from ALL, or MOST models at T72 then take absolutely everything with a huge pinch of salt. Given what is and has gone on in the atmosphere in the last few weeks, that theory is even wiser right now than it ever normally is. 

Take nothing away from what's been modelled today though - we have missed the boat again. From the second that the ECM showed a downgrade and an edging of the pattern last night, it was clear that a back track was almost inevitable. The toy throwing though, is indeed, silly. I'm still optimistic that we will stay on the right side of cold in the next few weeks and if you haven't all taken 1 thing from this winter....day 10 never verifies!

Plenty to play for and for all of those overlooking in search of a nirvana...at T72 we have a potential snow event, that could be fairly widespread to at least monitor. 

Keep the toys in the undercarriage for now....

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Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
5 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Really impressive cold coming from the west. Even if it is overdone (probable) there is still some great cold aloft and high lapse rates, very heavy constant snow showers for Scotland in particular on this run, western exposed locations could easily go 6-9 inches from that flow, and possibly more.

Spot on mate - North/West again favoured on the GFS.

Proper beefy cheeky snow showers and a fair depth of snow if this came off! 

Pretty much my perfect Winter set up for this location - please let it be! 

 

B5B3B756-9B62-42AE-A504-F0CAE0C85BFF.png

Edited by Mr Frost
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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

So extreme is the westerly airflow, that there is actually a decent penetration inland of the snow showers by 216hrs, that's almost the westerly equivalent of a beast from the west!

Given the flow is still sending LP's broadly WSW direction still, could get some true cold zonality for a time, been a long time since real cold zonality.

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Posted
  • Location: Dublin
  • Location: Dublin

This evening's update should not come as a surprise considering this mornings EC ENS

 

There is now strong support for the flow next weekend to have some sort of westerly component.  Beyond that could support for a notherly.

 

ENS 15 dayer for Reading

 

image.thumb.png.5314b25060e7d47301f34adfe4e44463.png

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Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
8 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

All that energy around southern greenland and the Lobe of death, same old problem... the models never pick up spoiler features until you get into that day 4 or so range where small nuances that make a big difference turn up, what happened to the day 10 charts we were seeing where the vortex was being broken apart? Clearly the SSW isn’t effecting the one area we need it too badly.

This situation is akin to having a straight flush in poker and your opponent pulling a royal flush, you just have to laugh... how can we be so unlucky?  

89CBA0DA-ED70-4B84-BD29-0BC36AC85FE9.png

That suggests flat zonal by the end of the month to me.  With the strat not having disrupted the trop vortex, you'd expect the Jet to get going across the Atlantic.

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Posted
  • Location: Waltham Abbey, West Essex 144ft a.s.l.
  • Weather Preferences: snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Waltham Abbey, West Essex 144ft a.s.l.

Just seen something on the GFS. Why does it stall the low east of Scotland at 84-110hrs. There is nothing to stop it . Interesting 

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Also worth noting that the lobe is starting to shift eastwards on the GFS by 216hrs, this is KEY to getting a good -ve NAO set-up down the line, if the PV sits where it is, there is pretty much no chance.

About to get stormy by 252hrs I think!

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