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Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Just out of interest are those long term watchers (over decades) seeing any changes due to this “15% decline” of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (gulf stream) that we occasionally read about in the news? 

Wondering if that’s going to impact things in our lifetime or not? 

Assuming that without that we’d behave a lot more like a continental land mass and have a climate more similar to Moscow...?

Interest sparked by seeing people posting charts from the 80s etc. Massive amount of knowledge in here! 

(And at least I’m not complaining about no snow so it lightens the mood  )

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

OK UKMO has flipped,i think most of us expected it too..

IMHO 144 isn't that bad progression wise- i'd expect the azores high to move west as the low drops SE @168..

Lets see what EC comes up with-

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

The ec clusters say that the upcoming run could easily be more than interesting. Icon goes on a route which was visible on the ec spreads, Ukmo goes on a tangent and gem seems to be happy with the  scandi high it built earlier. 

But my advise would be to expect nothing and you won’t be disappointed.......... days 7/10 should be an improvement on the 00z run but that will just empower the ‘jam tomorrow ‘ brigade (and who can blame them!) 

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Posted
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
6 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

For those bemoaning our current chart output am I not right in Thinking that the guys with greatest knowledge. GP etc were going with a start date of around the 21st for snow prospects then a possibility of needing a few bites of the cherry before the severest of the weather arrived for the first half of February.  As far as I can see that is still the picture. 

Indeed. But clearly people have to go through their catharsis first! Perhaps we do have to wait until the MJO phase plays its hand and rise on GLAAM shows through. But, SSW effect is still there and as the recent model upsets have shown, it is very difficult to model.

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire
  • Location: Lincolnshire
14 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Im afraid Thats me calling time - All models now increase in forward momentum at about T196-120

Thats me out.

UKMO 144 is a total mess & scatter gun of pressure everywhere

At least you're man enough to admit it Steve. Maybe something in February will deliver.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The ec clusters say that the upcoming run could easily be more than interesting. Icon goes on a route which was visible on the ec spreads, Ukmo goes on a tangent and gem seems to be happy with the  scandi high it built earlier. 

But my advise would be to expect nothing and you won’t be disappointed.......... days 7/10 should be an improvement on the 00z run but that will just empower the ‘jam tomorrow ‘ brigade (and who can blame them!) 

To be fair the GFS wasn't too bad in that sort of time range. I think this run unfortunately is going to be a good deal slower in getting the pattern change happening and any NW flow afterwards probably tempered due to the Azores High presence.

I'm still happy as well with the set-up aloft and all the parts in play, but we can't afford too many more blunders like this one if we want to get this cold spell the right side of winter! (AKA March 13, which was good, but sun was a little too much for lowland S.Britain for anything too impressive.)

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Goes to show short term modelling is pretty much king compared to all the long range forecasts!!ec46 glosea can show whatever they want but it just takes something at 96 hours to change the whole complexion of the long range!!2012 im pretty sure is a prime example!!

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Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
7 minutes ago, gottolovethisweather said:

Weekend wobbles, all back on track next Monday.

Lol I agree that does tend to happen. I really think that they could just as easily flip back again as there’s a lot of uncertainty within the models

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Posted
  • Location: Southside Glasgow (135m)
  • Weather Preferences: Beginning with S ending with W ;)
  • Location: Southside Glasgow (135m)
5 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Hahahaha! Well.. there we have it. ICON was right after all.

Worth noting this for future reference that UKMO tends to be slower at picking up pattern changes followed by GFS and ECM being first out the gate. It's still cold and there's still going to be snow around but significant cold from the East at least for now looking very unlikely. 

2012 called, it wants it's failed Easterly back..

Least with this one - the poor sun can't be blamed for this one like 2012 - the sun would be thinking "i have kept quiet for you guys". Really need to hope Ecm weeklies have been on the money for last week of Jan and majority of Feb only way to make up for this - they have been consistent plus overall pattern remains favourable as a few have mentioned earlier. 

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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

The broad pattern cannot see the micro ......but over a period of several weeks, it will be right on occasions. That’s why I remain totally confident that this is a blip. 

Fair enough should make some interesting charts once this passes

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Posted
  • Location: Cleckheaton, W Yorks
  • Location: Cleckheaton, W Yorks

I’m pretty new to posting on this forum but I can’t believe some people on here, talk about teddies out of the pram!

The rate the models are flipping we’ll be back in the fridge tomorrow! How anyone can call anything beyond Monday at the minute is beyond me!

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
6 minutes ago, Norrance said:

Please cut out the one liners or off topic posts if they don’t contribute anything to the model debate! A number have been removed recently and it could / should have been more.

Please bring back the hunt for cold thread.. it was much friendlier and you could actually have a small bit of banter without getting moaned at constantly. 

------

The general NH pattern remains favourable for future attempts at cold, we are in a cold spell currently and temperatures look to remain below average for the forseeable, all that's really happened with the models is they've ditched the lets face it unrealistic historic Easterly that they were showing a couple of days ago in favour of something more realistic.

Could be some pretty low minima late next week under high pressure/slack winds. It's only January 19th, plenty of time!

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire

It’s always the way when you want UKMO to be right because it’s showing the best solution it backs down . It works the other way round as well when the others all show the best outcome the UKMO shoots it all down . Onwards to the next phase , hopefully not to far away

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Lining up for that NW airflow around 180hrs, despite my worries timing looks about the same. This is the first sign of a synoptic shift aloft possibly occurring and could still be a good thing for the north of the UK in terms of snow as the 06z showed.

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: Hereford
  • Location: Hereford

Most of us are addicts, so as bad as things seem now, we will still keep coming back for more.

Each model has its known bias, but this serves as another lesson in that these biases do not always show up  and each model and run should be looked at as objectively as possible. Never fully discount anything!

Its only weather and there are more important travesties going on in our world.

 

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Just read from Facebook that the storm in the states is not behaving as forcast.. A lot of people that expected it to be bad have not had snow.. No idea on detail as its from people posting on Facebook... 

Plus I have equally no idea what impact this has on us... 

What I do know is that the information delay into the models our side will probs be about 12 hours... Ish 

Someone with more knowledge shed some light? 

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

All that energy around southern greenland and the Lobe of death, same old problem... the models never pick up spoiler features until you get into that day 4 or so range where small nuances that make a big difference turn up, what happened to the day 10 charts we were seeing where the vortex was being broken apart? Clearly the SSW isn’t effecting the one area we need it too badly.

This situation is akin to having a straight flush in poker and your opponent pulling a royal flush, you just have to laugh... how can we be so unlucky?  

89CBA0DA-ED70-4B84-BD29-0BC36AC85FE9.png

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
1 minute ago, Runcible Spoon said:

Most of us are addicts, so as bad as things seem now, we will still keep coming back for more.

Each model has its known bias, but this serves as another lesson in that these biases do not always show up  and each model and run should be looked at as objectively as possible. Never fully discount anything!

Its only weather and there are more important travesties going on in our world.

 

Yep certainly true. I've been here so many years, seen so many of these failed cold attempts, still hurts everytime they backfire, that never gets any better!

However just have to let it go and move on to what could be and hope for the best. In this set-up, we do have several real positive factors which at least hoping for another cold spell attempt is reasonable enough.

Looking good for Scotland and NW England (and N.Ireland) for 216hrs.

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Posted
  • Location: .
  • Location: .

Hi all, ho hum. I've not posted this winter because I've not yet seen anything to make me sit up. I still feel that's the case. The easterly never looked as prolific as it ought to from the timeframe (considering they nearly always downgrade as they approach) and now we look to be heading for something pretty insipid really. Chilly midweek and some snow around in places, but nothing exactly dramatic. 

Please forgive me if I'm misreading it but it's a bit ... meh.

Might be a little more nippy in Prague where I'm headed for a few days:

1593689474_ScreenShot2019-01-19at16_26_49.thumb.png.26e85f066edcfb062f53dbd18cfb5e6e.png

1863086712_ScreenShot2019-01-19at16_27_01.thumb.png.6993c42b87c5b9a3d3ae52f630afc3c1.png

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