Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

 Share
Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

Recommended Posts

bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted

Ec again the model to take most note of .......doesn’t mean it’s always right cos it isn’t. It can have a bad run pre day 5/6 like all of them but unless you have ecm on board, never count your chickens ......no easterly. Similarly, I would always want Ukmo day 5 on my side. Question is, how short can this Azores ridge blip be ???

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Winter Hill Seasoned

Winter Hill

Posted
  • Location: Horwich, Bolton.. 196m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow.. frost. Freezing fog
  • Location: Horwich, Bolton.. 196m asl
Posted
1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes T120 confirms this ship has sailed

image.thumb.jpg.3ada72dc17c7e1a8756a3016f7578591.jpg

We would have been jumping for joy last year. 

We still have low heights that’s a good thing 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Weathizard Accomplished

Weathizard

Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
Posted

We are cursed on these isles honestly, all major models in agreement with amazing charts, Icon/Navgen/BOM go for dirge and we always seem to end up with the worst possible outcome, very very frustrating. 

16EF5839-DC98-4FD1-B0DE-0CE5902D9930.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites
tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted

A definate step back this afternoon..

Lets hope its just models still in confuse of decipher of the large scale params!!!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
danm Maestro

danm

Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
Posted

UKMO 144. Unfortunately it has followed the ECM.

 

988931FD-862E-4B5E-B757-0B8B7FC69571.png

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
WhiteFox Community Regular

WhiteFox

Posted
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
Posted
3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

 

ps, the UKMO also has gone. Well done on the ICON as well, first saw the change and the others have really followed its lead.

I disagree. The ICON has flipped since yesterday. All it tells us is that it was a finely balanced situation. All the models showed it at one point or another.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted
1 minute ago, Winter Hill said:

We would have been jumping for joy last year. 

We still have low heights that’s a good thing 

Absolutely, the next ship due in a few days!!

Link to comment
Share on other sites
kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted
Just now, bluearmy said:

Ec again the model to take most note of .......doesn’t mean it’s always right cos it isn’t. It can have a bad run pre day 5/6 like all of them but unless you have ecm on board, never count your chickens ......no easterly. Similarly, I would always want Ukmo day 5 on my side. Question is, how short can this Azores ridge blip be ???

If its going to fail then wqe may as well kick the ridge to the east as fast as possible and get back into a more mobile flow which could help us develop into another cold attempt. Wonder where the GFS goes later on and whether it builds a decent HLB again deeper into the run.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
frosty ground Veteran

frosty ground

Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
Posted
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Ec again the model to take most note of .......doesn’t mean it’s always right cos it isn’t. It can have a bad run pre day 5/6 like all of them but unless you have ecm on board, never count your chickens ......no easterly. Similarly, I would always want Ukmo day 5 on my side. Question is, how short can this Azores ridge blip be ???

It’s not a blip it’s a change with the high to our north not coming south enough 

 

few weeks to go again 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted
3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes T120 confirms this ship has sailed

image.thumb.jpg.3ada72dc17c7e1a8756a3016f7578591.jpg

But in this set up ships will be like buses, another will be along soon

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Skullzrulerz Maestro

Skullzrulerz

Posted
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
Posted
3 minutes ago, shaky said:

Pretty much game set and match on the ukmo!!and also we shall be looking at another week.or so of winter eaten away and thats of anything wintry actually shows up!!

Just because the BFTE isn't happening doesn't mean it won't snow per Tuesday event and next week 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites
kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted
1 minute ago, WhiteFox said:

I disagree. The ICON has flipped since yesterday. All it tells us is that it was a finely balanced situation. All the models showed it at one point or another.

Still gotta give it credit, it saw the flip first, and not the first time it has picked up such shifts in our neck of the woods either, good or bad...

ECM also has done well with spotting this earlier than the rest as well sadly. Hopefully the upstream pattern doesn't mess us up for too long.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
chrisbell-nottheweatherman Accomplished

chrisbell-nottheweatherman

Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
Posted
1 minute ago, danm said:

UKMO 144. Unfortunately it has followed the ECM.

 

988931FD-862E-4B5E-B757-0B8B7FC69571.png

What strikes me about that is how well-structured the vortex appears to be, which might reinforce earlier posts from stratosphere experts that suggested that the tropospheric vortex is resisting the effects of the SSW.

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
markw2680 Accomplished

markw2680

Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
Posted

Is still don’t believe this is a done deal yet tbh, far from it and imo there could still be upgrades. Fair enough if it dosnt start to link up tomorrow then yeah that ship may of sailed but it’s still too soon to be saying it’s game over 

3BE05AFD-50D7-4049-9256-220E23E25BB9.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
BLAST FROM THE PAST Maestro

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted
7 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

ECM huge backtrack as The Slug fights back.  Its a big swipe at such short timescale, for me it makes it poor as well as the others....because if it was so good how come such a climb down at such short range.?  Ah well.....we definitely ain’t there yet 

 

BFTP

ECM backtracked to extreme as was the incredible easterly? As I followed up with.  Yes I think so as I expect a little more vigour in the initial dropping trough.  UKMO had moved ‘towards’ ECM as expected.....but no disaster as mot jumped on board but chucked a line to pull them together to get a solution..... and ‘primed’ for a much better diving trough to follow.  

 

BFTP

Link to comment
Share on other sites
swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted

Wow another bubble burst.weeks of anticipated wintry weather and over 24hours it comes then goes.hopefully things pick up heading threw February on the nhp.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
MattStoke Maestro

MattStoke

Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
Posted
2 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Unbelievable turnaround, you honestly would not believe it if you didnt know the nightmare that it is getting cold to these isles, joke!

B3F86EC7-1A47-47E8-A8D1-C038ADED9BC3.gif

CDC1CDED-1887-4C5D-B516-E74D38BFC989.png

Hardly unbelievable. It happens often for our part of the globe.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
snowbob Seasoned

snowbob

Posted
  • Location: Addington
  • Weather Preferences: Love a bit of snow
  • Location: Addington
Posted

If the models are going to upgrade I believe ecm will grab the signal first and the rest will follow 24 hours later

just a hunch

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share
Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...