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Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Part 1 of the easterly downgrade nearly complete on the icon!!3 more potential downgrades left lol gfs ukmo and ecm!!!low coming out of states much further east!!

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Just now, bluearmy said:

Icon back closer to its 00z output 

You have to laugh really..

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

Yep, cross ICON off as flipping: icon-0-132.thumb.png.7066d06a71d3a24ca9b53daf55097ec4.png

Maybe even more progressive with a breakdown...

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Posted
  • Location: Ayton, Berwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Ice and snow, heat and sun!
  • Location: Ayton, Berwickshire
25 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Hard to tell but does that storm look a little North-West of where the GFS predicted it?

999702691_Screenshot2019-01-19at14_49_20.thumb.png.13d6b85792b48514f26f90410a0d2d5c.pngGFS.thumb.png.8c95cf79955cc007eab7a0b0f0f187aa.png

I doubt you can compare a satellite photo very well as the chart will be distorted due to the impossibility of projecting the globe accurately onto a flat surface. In addition, the scale will be slightly different.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
2 minutes ago, TomW said:

icon-0-132.png?19-12

Can that low drop down from the north?

To be honest, it would make more sense to me if it did within the current pattern ....a toned down version of the Tuesday feature 

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
5 minutes ago, IDO said:

Yep, cross ICON off as flipping: icon-0-132.thumb.png.7066d06a71d3a24ca9b53daf55097ec4.png

Maybe even more progressive with a breakdown...

Yes it appears Shannon has arrived on the scene and she's brought her mate Entropy with her......

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
20 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Yep, generally rare to see frontal back edge snow in the south with a northwesterly polar flow undercutting, but an arctic northerly flow can produce back-edge snowfalls in the south, 25th Jan 2004 nationwide thundersnow event along a potent cold front moving south a good example. Be nice to experience here in the south back edge snow with a NWly undercutting for once though!

I think Winter 2000 saw nationwide snow from a Northwesterly but it's as people say it's not often that happens in the south of the uk

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

Yes I'm still with METO on this.

Monday evening through to Tuesday looks interesting with 528 dam present

fax84s.gif

GFSOPUK06_69_10.png

GFSOPUK06_69_53.png

Edited by Norrance
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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

At 36 hours low pressure slightly further east in the us and also slightly less dig of atlantic low!!could have big impacts later on in the run good or bad!

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
8 minutes ago, shaky said:

At 36 hours low pressure slightly further east in the us and also slightly less dig of atlantic low!!could have big impacts later on in the run good or bad!

Sorry shaky but it won’t make any difference ......

if you want to make an observation at T60, the jet is slightly east than it was on the 06z, so no gfs miracle on Tuesdays system 

Edited by bluearmy
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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
5 minutes ago, shaky said:

At 36 hours low pressure slightly further east in the us and also slightly less dig of atlantic low!!could have big impacts later on in the run good or bad!

Or not eh?

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Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs

DD87897F-48BA-46FE-B4D4-1860BE2806E2.thumb.gif.149718c9c08f835affdd334b67389834.gif

UKMO 96hrs

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Crunch time, fellow posters, and there's no build up, the first UKMO chart is the T96 for reasons which I have never understood, anyway here it is and it looks....

image.thumb.jpg.14bd62fff564c417772adcfd04480c23.jpg

Awful, no chance that link up with the Arctic high.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Could be a very snowy day on Tuesday for those in Ne Scotland if that low sits there and wraps around. Also still got a good backedge event regardless of what the models do.

Expect a downgrade from the 12z suite and start to look ahead to other set-ups, to quote something, 'its dead Jim'.

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: Waltham Abbey, West Essex 144ft a.s.l.
  • Weather Preferences: snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Waltham Abbey, West Essex 144ft a.s.l.
1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Crunch time, fellow posters, and there's no build up, the first UKMO chart is the T96 for reasons which I have never understood, anyway here it is and it looks....

image.thumb.jpg.14bd62fff564c417772adcfd04480c23.jpg

Awful, no chance that link up with the Arctic high.

Awful????

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Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs

F4214A58-A671-4221-BA85-EB2378E704F7.thumb.gif.1bddbedc5d1faafe823916068a091458.gif

UKMO 120hrs

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
2 minutes ago, john mac said:

Local forecast for Boston MA says 14hrs of snow before it turns to rain. 

GFS and most mesoscale models have really warmed up the 850hpa layer, so latest runs give about 6hrs of light-moderate snow before abit of freezing rain. ECM really nailed that set-up. Really markedly warmer though in the mid levels on the last few runs.

ps, the UKMO also has gone. Well done on the ICON as well, first saw the change and the others have really followed its lead.

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
8 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Talking of downgrades, the NE states have gone from a 12-18 inch snow event to a leading edge snow into rain type event looking at the 12z suite, quite a large shift (towards ECM).

They must be gutted inland

gfsna-2-24.png

gfsna-1-24.png

gfsna-0-24.png

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