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Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Hi peeps 

I am back again just had a thought. With regards to this SSW it has been said that it will have a impact on the models. I was just thinking could we just be at that stage now where the models are getting confused and that's what has brought along this swing. I know we could just think this just to ease the nnerves but 1 in a 10 chance could it just be this I wonder. Once we pass this stage then all will follow one trend. Well this was just a thought I had.

I think deep down there are some underlying factors that are making the models jump. We will have to see but st this stage I would say we don't know what's going to happens beyond 2 days away. It's just a matter of seeing how this situation unfolds and where we end up going. 

Kind regards again

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Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge Kent
4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

As others have posted...

Exeter remain on page... thats good enough for me...

No doubting the 12zs will reveal more, personally i suspect the mood will lidt later..

Let's hope so northwestsnow

I'm feeling a bit battle weary this morning!

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, snowblizzard said:

Let's hope so northwestsnow

I'm feeling a bit battle weary this morning!

I think we all are...its been a tough winter for coldies so far...

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Posted
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
26 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Is the output terrible ? No but after seeing some great charts these mostly have bitten the dust and we’re left trying to salvage something from the wreckage of another easterly fiasco .

Expectation management is probably the real problem. There are some snow chances but the easterly signal has weakened .

That’s where we’re at . So that’s our baseline . Let’s see if we can squeeze out just a bit more . 

There’s still a chance there’s been some over reaction by the models to a new signal.

Lets see what the models do this evening , still a chance we could see some better changes .

Almost certainly. No one model will ever get the situation spot on at a 7 day range; ablend is almost always the likely solution.

And things still remain positive. I suppose it's natural to feel disappointed that Narnia is not on the cards, but we are still in a cold pattern and will likely remain so for the foreseeable future.

For those who tie in so much emotion to each run, the @nick sussexhelpline is always available...

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

ps, anyone who wants to see something cool take a look at wetterzentrale and look at the 10m wind map for the UK. You can literally see the boundary snaking up and down the north sea along the kinks until 215hrs when the front blasts it to the east.

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

Met office posts have been removed. Please use the appropriate thread. 

Thanks 

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
3 minutes ago, snowray said:

 

gfs-16-72.thumb.png.4ab78130ccc56828ad679bedb8dcef06.png

 

Anyway, let's wait and see what the 12z runs turn up before jumping to conclusions. I would still prefer that it didn't snow in Northern Italy next week mind, at the end of the day I want it all over here for us to enjoy!

for fun, but awful chart!

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

for fun, but awful chart!

Its a start though, we have to start somewhere in this mainly snowless winter so far of a flake or two here and there.

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
56 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

They were based on output which is over 24 hours old rob

the 8/14 dayer still looks reasonable - it’s the 6/10 which is out 


yep... but their confidence is 5/5 for both charts, so they might shift tonight and if they do fair play. on the other hand we have often seen the ops go off on one only to return to an earlier prediction.  as ever, further runs needed.
 

56 minutes ago, Firefly2005 said:

Could you explain this more to those of us who are lay people and only have a very basic understanding? Thanks in advance

basically they show the mean upper airflow, where the ridging and troughing is most likely to occur. i view these charts first then view the ops and then take the ops with the closest to the anomalies as 'most likely'. nowts certain.
im sure there will be something in the learning zone about these charts.. not got time now myself.

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Posted
  • Location: West Ipswich, Suffolk
  • Location: West Ipswich, Suffolk
8 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

for fun, but awful chart!

A small explanation of how you find this chart for Tuesday awful please.

TIA

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
Just now, bluearmy said:

It’s not the metoffice thread but clear that their thinking is leaning more to the euro trough being suppressed further south .......that’s a little away from the eps mean which is very troughy  

We have seen this many times before a cold spell though, models have a wobble, then a day later they are back on track. Or will this winter really go down in history as the winter of near misses, and the cold not turning up until March again?

I'm feeling relatively confident of us getting something half decent in the next couple of weeks.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
28 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Way too much doom and gloom in here today, the models are still looking cold and in places very cold with no realistic sign of anything mild..cold and or very cold is good enough for me after the winter we've had so far!!!

And the outlooks suggested by UKMO and GLOSEA models ought to provide everyone with at least a little solace...Pheeew!:cold:

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Posted
  • Location: West Ipswich, Suffolk
  • Location: West Ipswich, Suffolk
1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

not really for this thread, but was for fun, as snow charts at this range is FI, it shows lying snow in most areas except here, 

Cool cheers, i would have thought being Saturday, that a Tuesday snow chart would not be so much FI

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Posted
  • Location: Bromley
  • Location: Bromley
1 minute ago, Chris101 said:

Cool cheers, i would have thought being Saturday, that a Tuesday snow chart would not be so much FI

True, but it seems like Fl has been reduced to 10 hours rather than 10 days at the moment

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Just now, Chris101 said:

Cool cheers, i would have thought being Saturday, that a Tuesday snow chart would not be so much FI

here is hi res chart, snowfall chances, backedge snow monday night is still on, here between midnight and 3am

image.thumb.png.1fc1a67c75d2216306729353fee7a18f.pngimage.thumb.png.15d0737b3e59a996b0b8446184a3aef3.png

image.png

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Posted
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
2 minutes ago, Chris101 said:

Cool cheers, i would have thought being Saturday, that a Tuesday snow chart would not be so much FI

When it comes to exact PPN type in this sort of situation we cannot be sure until much closer to the time. The high resolution models will give us a much better idea. It's a complex situation and there are many variables involved which can affect PPN either way within a small area of just a few hundred miles; far too small a scale for the model runs we have at the moment.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

And the outlooks suggested by UKMO and GLOSEA models ought to provide everyone with at least a little solace...Pheeew!:cold:

As already referenced, the extended ens are not really changing .....the questions relate to the period days 5/11. We don’t have any visibility of mogreps. Glosea is a model which deals with the period post week 2 

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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20

FWIW, the ECM 6z (which runs only to 90 hours) is very close to the ECM 0z. Maybe a tad slower in clearing the lower heights south out of the UK.

500 Mb anomalies shown below (0z then 6z)

 

ECM-00z_500_crop.png

ECM-06z_500_crop.png

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Posted
  • Location: Ashford Kent
  • Weather Preferences: 1. Clear skies 2. Cold 3. Snow 4. Hot
  • Location: Ashford Kent

An observation about Model Output Discussion

Why don’t Mods create a thread for each model for next 10 days.  Then you only post about that model, in that thread.   You experts might then be able to look back over 10 days and get an intriguing perspective on accuracy and interpretations.  

Edited by Big Dave
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Posted
  • Location: Hereford
  • Location: Hereford

Mmm, amazing how quickly elation turns to despondency. Most of us get too high based on model runs, - even if they look convincing. Equally we get too despondent at times too. 

Rule of thumb is not to fully believe the models until we get to around T24/48 for good old blightly. Our weather is so much more affected by a multitude of variables compared to a large continental landmass.

The back edge snow predicted by GFS for Tues/Weds is not floating my boat as even if it does happen, it will be falling on relatively warm ground/grass that will already be wet from the rain that is likely to precede it. Hardly a recipe for low level settling!

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Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh
  • Location: Edinburgh
27 minutes ago, snowray said:

Not had a chance to post the last couple of days due to bits of business that had to be sorted out, including funnily enough a couple of legal documents that have to be signed in a town in NW Italy at over 400m asl next Thursday. Heavy snow was showing up for this area for Wednesday and Thursday of next week and I was worried that the the solicitor would not be around in his offices if there's 2 or 3 foot of snow or that the elderly signatories would end up stuck in a mountain snow drift, I thought just my luck, hardly any snow south of the Alps and it has to bucket down next week. (Its snowed lots in Central/Southern Italy though of course). 

But out of the blue hardly any snowfall at all is showing this morning for Northern Italy so I thought I'd take a look at the ensembles.

 

London, no outlier there.graphe_ens3.thumb.gif.7c75a8c6a1c5fac42600c3049ba4fe6e.gif

 

 

Lugano (Italian/Swiss border), the operational is a clear outlier.graphe_ens3-1.thumb.gif.ff57607523a03a93ddcd9fe71e4ffa05.gif

 

Florence. North/Central Italy.graphe_ens3-2.thumb.gif.7c18fc56136b801bde01a2266b47586a.gifMassive outlier.

 

So It seems to me that the GFS operational has this Low pressure sinking south way, way too quickly, in view of this I expect everything to be further north again on the 12z runs. I'm not expecting the crazy beast from the east charts for next week, although you never know, but am thinking that UKMO is likely to be on the money, or maybe a UKNO/GFS blend.

UW144-21.thumb.gif.b960b4249cf10e6c4b35c61d1da7c42d.gifgfs-0-144.thumb.png.a279c56d43f5e39d48b1da4ac498cb94.png

ECM has the low even further south, so looking well over done to me, should be some big changes coming up on the 12z runs, certainly less progressive in my opinion.

ECM1-144.thumb.gif.37ecdecf02f69747a6545b9ba4263963.gif

 

Best of the best this morning is the NAVGEM, poor model, but every model can have its day.navgem-0-180.thumb.png.dd22cd7fcdbee171732713a69c39c52d.pngnavgem-1-180.thumb.png.58ebdc5fc9b95ca78708e58905a8254f.png

The up and coming China model also looking great.

cma-0-180.thumb.png.763dae4acbd557035da760256aee5e45.pngcma-1-180.thumb.png.ad0c24532aa2b450efe8ee482a9e1086.png

So hopefully lots to look forward to still for coldies from Tuesday onwards. 

gfs-16-72.thumb.png.4ab78130ccc56828ad679bedb8dcef06.png

 

Anyway, let's wait and see what the 12z runs turn up before jumping to conclusions. I would still prefer that it didn't snow in Northern Italy next week mind, at the end of the day I want it all over here for us to enjoy!

You'd be surprised, I lived for a few years (2008-2013) not far from Varese. It snowed every winter, definitely a lot more than in Scotland. 

North Western Italy has a peculiar climate, snow usually comes with southern/south-western air currents. Due to it being surrounded by the Alps, the cold air gets "trapped" and it takes a lot to kick it out. So as a milder and wetter airmass moves over the area from the Mediterranean, it almost always falls as snow. And the snowfall is usually heavy and persistent too.

There are very rarely disruptions even with 10-20cm snowfalls. Roads are immediately cleared and salted and smaller snow ploughs clean all the paths. Major disruptions are very rare, unlike in the UK. 

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