Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?

[smith25]

1 minute ago, Jackski4 said:

Not quite sure what to do with myself as I wait for the next UKMO run... Nervous times ahead 

you wait.. the ecm will switch back to the colder outlook while the ukmo switchs to less cold again.

[Norrance]

42 minutes ago, reef said:

Just a small reminder, as there's so many one-liners in here that we cant keep up:

PLEASE USE THE MODEL BANTER THREAD
Thanks

Can nobody read? This was only posted a short time ago. Since then there have several one liners appearing.

They will soon be disappearing.

[Paul White.]

You know it’s funny I believed that a lot of posters on here were from a glass half full perspective, I’m now wondering if they actually own a glass to fill   it still looks wintry next week on some of the NWP maybe not as extreme. But it will be colder and I imagine snow will be about and if it was still Xmas dare I say it would be described as “seasonal” 

[Jackski4]

1 minute ago, smith25 said:

you wait.. the ecm will switch back to the colder outlook while the ukmo switchs to less cold again.

The way things are going, I wouldn't be surprised!

[damianslaw]

Another point to note is the jetstream profile forecasts - these show the UK locked on the cold side of the polar front jet for the forseeable - and as we end Jan and enter Feb a pronounced southerly more zonal flow, which indicates heights eventually likely to build strongly to the north.

[Jackski4]

2 minutes ago, sparky1972 said:

mentally prepare yourself for the UKMO to follow the rest of the models in letting us down, then it wont be such a shock to the system, lol

No way, I'd rather build up all hope and expectations and then have my hopes and dreams come crushing down! haha

[E17boy]

Morning peeps 

hope you all are ok . I know think I dare ask that with the doom stormcloud that has come over. Alas my heart sinks a few days ago things were looking worthwhile and there was light on the horizon, but now it seems dark storm clouds have taken the excitement away.

There is nothing positive I could pick out to get our heads up the reality of the British weather is staring on our face,

However just had a look at the latest update on weatheronline and that seems to be sticking to its guns on cold and snowey weather but with uncertainty. There is still time for the models to flip again but that's me thinking dreamland. I know it's disheartening but let's keep our heads up. Let's see what the later runs bring. 

We live in hope and always will 

hope you all have a great Saturday

the search for our winter wonderland continues

kind regards

[nick sussex]

Is the output terrible ? No but after seeing some great charts these mostly have bitten the dust and we’re left trying to salvage something from the wreckage of another easterly fiasco .

Expectation management is probably the real problem. There are some snow chances but the easterly signal has weakened .

That’s where we’re at . So that’s our baseline . Let’s see if we can squeeze out just a bit more . 

There’s still a chance there’s been some over reaction by the models to a new signal.

Lets see what the models do this evening , still a chance we could see some better changes .

[Chesil View]

4 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Another point to note is the jetstream profile forecasts - these show the UK locked on the cold side of the polar front jet for the forseeable - and as we end Jan and enter Feb a pronounced southerly more zonal flow, which indicates heights eventually likely to build strongly to the north.

Indeed Damianslaw. This whole long forecast colder section of winter has always been based on a nw/se based sinking jet which would allow hieghts to build to our north or north west. The Scandi high has never been a favoured option.  Even the ECM options of the past couple days only had it as a transient feature ready to retrogress quickly towards Iceland. The clusters that MWB examines for us have also gone noticeably for hieghts to the north or Northwest rather than the north East so I for one din,t quite understand the weeping and wailing at the removal of an option that was always tentative at best and going against the general direction of longers term ens guidance.

[saintkip]

The latest GFS run is far snowier for me than the previous runs including the boom run, I’m happy.

[swfc]

11 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

No way, I'd rather build up all hope and expectations and then have my hopes and dreams come crushing down! haha

B

 

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Is the output terrible ? No but after seeing some great charts these mostly have bitten the dust and we’re left trying to salvage something from the wreckage of another easterly fiasco .

Expectation management is probably the real problem. There are some snow chances but the easterly signal has weakened .

That’s where we’re at . So that’s our baseline . Let’s see if we can squeeze out just a bit more . 

There’s still a chance there’s been some over reaction by the models to a new signal.

Lets see what the models do this evening , still a chance we could see some better changes .

Why such a flip tho nick and so quickly??

[Bruegelian]

Sort of think (hope) there might be a 'not so fast' story to today but we'll see.

[phil nw.]

Latest London ens

Showing generally cold still -could that mid-term milder blip be correct?ECM op shows up as a mild run then and GFS op on the cold side.

I think it's fair to assume Tuesday is about as far as we can trust any output at the moment.

[nick sussex]

6 minutes ago, swfc said:

B

 

Why such a flip tho nick and so quickly??

Modelling of high pressure to the ne is often a problem . And the set up of low clearing se with ridge over the top is a very rare set up .

We hardly see that type of evolution . There is though still uncertainty upstream and with the pattern to the ne so I think it’s best we wait till tonights outputs before seeing what’s really on offer.

Edited January 19, 2019 by nick sussex

[andymusic]

hasn't there been a pattern of dodgy model runs in the mornings and better runs for the 12zs emerging over recent weeks? - hold your nerve for now and have some patience - some big changes for us and the models still may not have this worked out yet - ukmo/meto still holding too!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Southender]

4 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

Latest London ens

Showing generally cold still -could that mid-term milder blip be correct?ECM op shows up as a mild run then and GFS op on the cold side.

I think it's fair to assume Tuesday is about as far as we can trust any output at the moment.

If that’s classed as a disaster, then I’ll take that all day long. Yes a clear uptick towards the end of next week. But overall it’s still decent and cold enough for what most of us want...  

[Lampostwatcher]

Something has to start to be over

Tuesday May be the start of seeing snow for the uk 

Gfs thinks so 

And so do the met ukmo

cant be bothered to look at charts past that

Edited January 19, 2019 by Lampostwatcher

[Frosty.]

Way too much doom and gloom in here today, the models are still looking cold and in places very cold with no realistic sign of anything mild..cold and or very cold is good enough for me after the winter we've had so far!!!

[IDO]

The UKMO stops just before the important frame. However, if you look at the three frames to T144:

You can follow the path of that wedge to the North. It starts to sink at T122 and at T144 it is now moving SE, see the shape of the high. A cold pool to its SW likely to mitigate any WAA. The reason it is edging away is that forces to the west>forces to the east with nominal WAA.

Again upstream pretty much in line with ECM at T144 through the ECM more progressive with the upstream flow. So expect the ECM move towards the UKMO and vice versa. Overall the ridge v. likely to fail on UKMO IMO. That is assuming the status quo and by the 12z variables may have changed again!

The GEFS still have a cluster that represents yesterday's output so we cannot call it yet. Also, the GEM ENS has 33% support for the blocking to stay to the N/NE.

We will see after the 12z. All roads lead to cold so just how we get there...

[bluearmy]

8 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

Just spoke to a Seniro Operational Meteorologist for the Met Office, and they are still going for cold (like the long range forecasts suggests)

I don't think it's over until UKMO starts jumping ship.. Hoping it'll stay firm, and the others start to follow.

 

It’s potentially a three or four day less cold blip ..... the overall pattern hasn’t shifted 

[That ECM]

8 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

Latest London ens

Showing generally cold still -could that mid-term milder blip be correct?ECM op shows up as a mild run then and GFS op on the cold side.

I think it's fair to assume Tuesday is about as far as we can trust any output at the moment.

More of a spread in temps at day 6 than day 12.  

[BleakMidwinter]

25 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

No way, I'd rather build up all hope and expectations and then have my hopes and dreams come crushing down! haha

It's a huge advantage to have spent a lifetime supporting the Scotland rugby side, really...  you get used to huge hopes crashing down at the last twenty minutes

But all these models are only models, aren't they? All of it is based on "well, analysis of past very similar situations indicates that the outcomes are most probably this or this or this with possibly more likelihood of this one".

And one of the things I find really interesting, as an audience-member watching these discussions, is that it seems plausible to me that different models are better or worse at particular types of event or weather systems, but there seems a strong urge for people to defend their pet-model vehemently in all circumstances, or to damn their least-favoured model in all circumstances. 

It is fascinating to read - specially those of you kind and patient enough to explain why you have reached your particular conclusion!

My own personal aim is to have any kind of understanding of fax charts, which remain a pretty mystery at present... 

[northwestsnow]

As others have posted...

Exeter remain on page... thats good enough for me...

No doubting the 12zs will reveal more, personally i suspect the mood will lift later..

Edited January 19, 2019 by northwestsnow

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

It’s potentially a three or four day less cold blip ..... the overall pattern hasn’t shifted 

Correct!!

Although I can understand the frustration, i really can.

I keep banging on about the Euro low, while its there it will attract the jet, like moths to a flame...

Any mild will be shortlived..

In my humble and downright amatuer opinion.

[kold weather]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

It’s potentially a three or four day less cold blip ..... the overall pattern hasn’t shifted 

and even that blip could have legitimate snow chances for quite a few people as well.

I think the 06z was still a little fast in bringing in that HLB, also debatably a poor set of ensembles in regards to where the mean upper low is in the back portion of the run, but that really isn't of importance at this stage of course!