Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.

Charts like this first one are a real kick in the proverbials for UK cold fans. Gets better later in the run though. Real monster trough there.

gfseu-0-174.png

gfseu-0-264 (2).png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
1 minute ago, Empire Of Snow said:

This run is the worse case scenario. It's a nightmare. Even in FI I'm afraid that the main cold pool will be pushed east/southeast because of another NW ridge into us. And again it seems North Greece will have another snowfest. 

Not necessarily. Feb 1991 started off with a cold pool over the Ukraine and headed directly westward. This is not over by a long shot. 

Edited by East_England_Stormchaser91
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Nutts Corner
  • Location: Nutts Corner
2 minutes ago, karyo said:

Best to wait until it comes into euro 4 view. GFS precipitation charts are always overdoing the snow.

Totally agree mate

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
2 minutes ago, Empire Of Snow said:

This run is the worse case scenario. It's a nightmare. Even in FI I'm afraid that the main cold pool will be pushed east/southeast because of another NW ridge into us. And again it seems North Greece will have another snowfest. 

FAr from the worst case scenario, still plenty of chances of snow events, though the locations that are most favoured has rather flipped round!

Here comes the kicker low at 264hrs by the way, heights will rise soon afterwards near Greenland, lets hope its enough!

PS, as hard as it will be to watch, once the jet drops we WANT Euorpe to be as cold as possible as that's the air we will be importing, it would reduce marginality.

Edited by kold weather
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

There’s nothing positive to post about this mornings runs. Major backtrack in progress, we’ve been 2012’ved. 

I’d fully expect the UKMO to drop the Easterly on the 12z runs now too. Massive ensemble spread so we *could* see it return but quite frankly that’s looking incredibly unlikely. 

Cold this week with snow chances for many but the end of the week unlikely to be offering anything significant. Back to looking at day 10+ I suppose

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

A real Arctic High on this run so that is a tell-tale sign of downwelling and we should expect a very cold and snowy Feb if this trend maintains...

gfsnh-0-312.thumb.png.7918a70b2cde157f32b7202e102a83f8.png

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
10 minutes ago, Chris K said:

If a block unfavourably sets up, maybe. However it gets slightly bemusing when just because this time round it could "fail", suddenly 3 weeks worth of weather is decided...I don't think so. Overall theme is still positive of a euro trough. Everything just needs to go right for the UK to get the amazing cold spells...which is difficult!

Normally I would agree but the shift is enough east to Lose the low heights over Europe 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Just now, Daniel Smith said:

There’s nothing positive to post about this mornings runs. Major backtrack in progress, we’ve been 2012’ved. 

I’d fully expect the UKMO to drop the Easterly on the 12z runs now too. Massive ensemble spread so we *could* see it return but quite frankly that’s looking incredibly unlikely. 

Cold this week with snow chances for many but the end of the week unlikely to be offering anything significant. Back to looking at day 10+ I suppose

Nothing positive ? Plenty of snow chances for most over the next 10 days or so

FBC5E697-EDA7-4B4B-959B-09CF01677009.png

9CED752D-62A3-403F-BD3B-9E3B47D0682C.png

A3C5C26C-BBF1-44D6-950B-8AFB924933C9.png

4EC596F5-015D-4502-881D-BD69F55C94DF.png

111E2820-C49D-43FE-8B42-762773CD352D.png

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Interesting to see the stages of grief today on these forums!

Actually looking VERY good from 216hrs onwards globally in terms of the broad blocks, the PV lobe stretches out and in its place your going to get high pressure forming and that will shuff the jet southwards and open up slider/full blown LP set-ups that offer snow chances.

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Just now, Tim Bland said:

Nothing positive ? Plenty of snow chances for most over the next 10 days or so

FBC5E697-EDA7-4B4B-959B-09CF01677009.png

9CED752D-62A3-403F-BD3B-9E3B47D0682C.png

A3C5C26C-BBF1-44D6-950B-8AFB924933C9.png

4EC596F5-015D-4502-881D-BD69F55C94DF.png

111E2820-C49D-43FE-8B42-762773CD352D.png

I was referring to the Easterly.. did you read the 1st line of my post & then decide to reply before reading the rest?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Just now, karyo said:

So you prefer Europe to be warm? Where will the cold come from to us?

I know what your saying but how many times have we seen this in the last few years . As in Greece frozen and most of euro land and we’re left with zilch ? 

Day 7 and 8 on gfs 6z very cold in Europe- 80C96A2B-7EC5-492E-9DE6-84CDCFA1864E.thumb.png.7bc89b5b5499d2974da711db36cb40de.pngD2F4B0F0-A300-4CAB-AEFD-B3414E84E38D.thumb.png.43e807088903b1eb9c3b8c9ce3aa4261.png

Day 7 and 8 on the ECM 00z no cold air to be seen . Just so frustrating ED13E3FE-2AAE-4451-9490-BD51B07860DD.thumb.png.d59a8c5082e2c39577f3fb8ca264b746.pngBC4668B6-DF43-44B0-AAB7-559BE74A670C.thumb.png.c81fab05f6eaa1f0b531cd742bbc3e02.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
21 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

What amazes me is how the strat warming hasn't worked out. I think we should now accept that this has been a fail with no proper heights to our North. Some might remember me say this time and time again over the last week. You need proper heights to our North. Almost everyone has to backtrack on this one Inc the Meto and beeb etc. We laugh about the ceefax/teletext days of the 80.......has weather forecasting got any better since though?!

It does make you wonder in a non zonal set up, what is the point of model output in the t+120 timeframe, especially for these small Islands.  

If the pattern at t+96 pushes East by 50 miles, by the time we get to t+168 that could be 500 miles and all the cold shifts into the continent.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hernia Bay
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy Snow
  • Location: Hernia Bay
1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

ECM ensembles for this Thursday: 2 days ago when I checked, it was about 80/20 in favour of some sort of easterly/northerly. This morning is about 40/60. That is a flip. Rather embarrassing for me as I've been staking my forecast on the consistency of these ensembles for days!

What I think will happen now, what with the UKMO and GFS so different and with the easterly far from dead in the ensembles, is that we are likely to get a fudge. The middle ground will be a shorter easterly followed by a quick sinker. That looks most reasonable to me. It's rare at such short range for either model to be completely wrong. And maybe that would still allow a snow event later next week. But the weather will do what it wants, when it wants, and just occasionally make fools out of us. 

Nicely Balanced take on things. I agree. Commendable 

Edited by snowfish1
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
3 minutes ago, IDO said:

A real Arctic High on this run so that is a tell-tale sign of downwelling and we should expect a very cold and snowy Feb if this trend maintains...

gfsnh-0-312.thumb.png.7918a70b2cde157f32b7202e102a83f8.png

Over 20 years on this forum my mind is full of Arctic highs not delivering. For me its simple Greenland or Scandinavian high for proper cold

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Ending beautifully-

image.thumb.png.3ed600dc4577ed378096b6dabcb582d2.png

While we have the euro low we are in the game- 

OK this pain in the rear storm over the states has delayed the progression, i still think we will get our jackpot..

Textbook -ve NAO. The models never really got onboard with this set-up and went the more risky Scandi high progression for this cold spell.

Anyway, nothing positive, there are at least 3-4 snow events to talk about. Its no 00z GFS run (which lets not joke, was one of the best runs EVER, didn't matter what the 06z did it was going to be a downgrade comared to that.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

If your post is missing or dissapears it's because it's off topic and does not belong in here, Some great Model watching to be had, So let's not jump the gun.

Thanks.

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

I know what your saying but how many times have we seen this in the last few years . As in Greece frozen and most of euro land and we’re left with zilch ? 

Day 7 and 8 on gfs 6z very cold in Europe- 80C96A2B-7EC5-492E-9DE6-84CDCFA1864E.thumb.png.7bc89b5b5499d2974da711db36cb40de.pngD2F4B0F0-A300-4CAB-AEFD-B3414E84E38D.thumb.png.43e807088903b1eb9c3b8c9ce3aa4261.png

Day 7 and 8 on the ECM 00z no cold air to be seen . Just so frustrating ED13E3FE-2AAE-4451-9490-BD51B07860DD.thumb.png.d59a8c5082e2c39577f3fb8ca264b746.pngBC4668B6-DF43-44B0-AAB7-559BE74A670C.thumb.png.c81fab05f6eaa1f0b531cd742bbc3e02.png

Yes, it is disheartening when we miss out but it also gives us a chance to tap into the cold with a slight change in the wind direction, especially when central Europe gets in the freezer.

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Funnily enough, the clusters offer some solace ....... there is one of the main two (37%) which is very Ukmo ...the op cluster is by far the smallest in the important timeframes  - by day 8 we are paying sinking the trough across us again 

Edited by bluearmy
  • Like 8
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...