Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?

[frosty ground]

Look at all theirs heights being pushed into Europe small changes now big changes later expecting long term changes next 2-3 weeks worth at least 

[mulzy]

Even this 6z run has a band of snow passing through next Sunday - just for fun of course but it's not all lost!

[Bristawl Si]

1 minute ago, January Snowstorm said:

What amazes me is how the strat warming hasn't worked out. I think we should now accept that this has been a fail with no proper heights to our North. Some might remember me say this time and time again over the last week. You need proper heights to our North. Almost everyone has to backtrack on this one Inc the Meto and beeb etc. We laugh about the ceefax/teletext days of the 80.......has weather forecasting got any better since though?!

What amazes me is how unreliable weather model output remains in 2019 compared to, say, 10 years ago i.e. nowt has changed.

Last couple of days basically settling in an outlook from mid next week right through to early Feb; now seemingly quite large changes. Or maybe.....

I just return to my long held belief that our islands are just too damned hard to forecast days and weeks ahead (maritime climate + gulf stream) and are just too miniscule in relation to the geographical mass 'we' sit in, SSW or no SSW.

[Radiating Dendrite]

1 minute ago, Had Worse said:

Ask yourself the question.

If nobody had seen the EC46 and Met Office longer range musings, would the picture of Narnia be in your sights quite as much.?

Because that picture has been painted, it skews our thinking.

It's not worth worrying about.

At least it's not Brexit, for some it's seems like Brrrrr..exit.

Narnia has been painted numerous times by the models the last few days and not even deep into FI. A chart going to pot at 96hrs compared to 300hrs is a lot harder to take. 

[Deep Snow please]

1 minute ago, Had Worse said:

Ask yourself the question.

If nobody had seen the EC46 and Met Office longer range musings, would the picture of Narnia be in your sights quite as much.?

Because that picture has been painted, it skews our thinking.

It's not worth worrying about.

At least it's not Brexit, for some it's seems like Brrrrr..exit.

I disagree with you - even in the reliable we've seen Narnia charts these past few days, but even if I didn't it's a welcome distraction from real life at the moment, which I think is why there was a greater excitement presently than there has been before.

 

Still time for a flip, but we seem to be running out of steam sadly. 

[MattStoke]

Well, it looks less likely but not yet impossible that we’ll see significant cold from the east later next week.

If some output is to believe we’ll actually see a mild/milder spell later next week. I struggle to believe that this is correct given the bigger picture of background signals, strat developments and seasonal modelling.

[IDO]

The cold is never too far away, even on this run, and I expect this to be close to the worst-case scenario, a normal GFS over-reaction to a pattern change:

Corrections west could keep it interesting as we await the next attack from the Canadian lobe?

[Team Jo]

If you are unable to support your one liner or cannot keep your emotions in check I really suggest you head into banter to moan or even better just step back from the models for a couple of hours.

Writing off the winter in January is totally ridiculous. Let’s just nip that in the bud.

[SLEETY]

gfs was very close to an easterly in the semi reliable,.I wouldn’t be writing off the chances yet ,especially with ukmo still on board

[kold weather]

Heavy snow showers for Scotland, N.Ireland and N.England at 216hrs in a fairly cold looking NW/WNW airflow. Ok its not a easterly, but we can't choose what the weather will do.

Also first hints of something good developing in the northern latitudes again, hope we see it emerge towards the end of the run, probably will have a week of fairly zonal stuff to deal with beforehand.

[snowangel32]

8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

6Z setting up for a potent PM blast in FI (IMHO)..

Unless it's 24 hours away I won't belive it, won't be led down the garden path again. 12z I feel will be the final nail for this attempt.

[Weegaz]

Tuesday still looking good, better than nought

Things changed overnight, could change again for the better over the next 24hrs, reliable timeframes still should be considered up to 72hrs imo

Edited January 19, 2019 by Weegaz

[Chris K]

7 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Look at all theirs heights being pushed into Europe small changes now big changes later expecting long term changes next 2-3 weeks worth at least 

If a block unfavourably sets up, maybe. However it gets slightly bemusing when just because this time round it could "fail", suddenly 3 weeks worth of weather is decided...I don't think so. Overall theme is still positive of a euro trough. Everything just needs to go right for the UK to get the amazing cold spells...which is difficult!

Edited January 19, 2019 by Chris K

[pureasthedriven]

11 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

As long as the ukmo remains rock solid, I will remain optimistic. Still time for the ecm to revert back later today. Bring on the 12z runs. 

Agreed. Extended text update overnight remains very positive. 

[chapmanslade]

2 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

What amazes me is how unreliable weather model output remains in 2019 compared to, say, 10 years ago i.e. nowt has changed.

Last couple of days basically settling in an outlook from mid next week right through to early Feb; now seemingly quite large changes. Or maybe.....

I just return to my long held belief that our islands are just too damned hard to forecast days and weeks ahead (maritime climate + gulf stream) and are just too miniscule in relation to the geographical mass 'we' sit in, SSW or no SSW.

I'm afraid the first line of your post is fundamentally wrong. They have and are improving all the time - Met Office stats are there to demonstrate this.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/open-days

Well worth a visit and lots of info on model performance given in some of the talks when I went

 

[beefy201]

1 minute ago, Team Jo said:

If you are unable to support your one liner or cannot keep your emotions in check I really suggest you head into banter to moan or even better just step back from the models for a couple of hours.

Writing off the winter in January is totally ridiculous. Let’s just nip that in the bud.

Hi Jo, mine was a tease in reaction to the over reaction to the slightest pattern change many apologies

[karyo]

At least Europe gets in the freezer so the cold will never be far away to reach.

The 6z brings a major winter storm for Italy and Greece by next weekend!

[kold weather]

Could see a lot of snowfall in those exposed western locales, easily see 6 inches + if that NW flow does come off like that, pretty unstable flow. Maybe the odd shower even in the south making it through, but south looks dry and reasonably cold.

[karlos1983]

Shall we try again

trough dropping SE, GO!

[Tim Bland]

Whilst the amazing Synoptics and raging easterly has all but disappeared- The actual weather on the ground is not much different. Still remains colder than average with occasional snow. GFS 06z for example looks poor compared to yesterday but look at the snow potential 

[That ECM]

We’ve gone from this to this in 6 hours. Volatility is an understatement

[karyo]

4 minutes ago, Weegaz said:

Tuesday still looking good, better than nought

Best to wait until it comes into euro 4 view. GFS precipitation charts are always overdoing the snow.

[kold weather]

Yes Tim Bland, we have some snow as the front moves across the east and hits the remains of cold air that was present on the western edge of that Scandi high and then a lot of heavy snow showers coming into the NW quadrant of the UK, could see some decent falls accumulate.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

the 06z still has an almighty cold pool hovering over Europe. Looking very similar to Feb 2012 now! The main thing is that the low heights still cut off and headed SE to the med, so the idea is still there and hasn’t been abandoned completely. It’s now a case of observing the tip of Greenland very carefully within 72hr timeframe. That lobe split / arctic high link up is make or break. 

[Empire Of Snow]

3 minutes ago, IDO said:

The cold is never too far away, even on this run, and I expect this to be close to the worst-case scenario, a normal GFS over-reaction to a pattern change:

Corrections west could keep it interesting as we await the next attack from the Canadian lobe?

This run is the worse case scenario. It's a nightmare. Even in FI I'm afraid that the main cold pool will be pushed east/southeast because of another NW ridge into us. And again it seems North Greece will have another snowfest.