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Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Wow complete 180 from all the models this morning. The question is whether this surpasses the hype - disappointment of dec2012. Shame though , I was looking forward to it. Still possible to see something I Feb I guess. But the ship for this has just set sail 

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As suspected, level of cold is being watered down somewhat by todays outputs. Next week now looking cold, but some of the extreme solutions we have been seeing now seem unlikely. Still good signals in the background for other shots at something a bit more extreme. Patience required if like myself you are hoping for something notable and memorable as oppose to average winter cold.

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
2 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

Wow complete 180 from all the models this morning. The question is whether this surpasses the hype - disappointment of dec2012. Shame though , I was looking forward to it. Still possible to see something I Feb I guess. But the ship for this has just set sail 

It is always disappointing to see how quickly a cold spell can downgrade or even vanish from the models at such a close range.

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

Never ceases to amaze me how easily and quickly any significant cold for the UK can go to pot. Even though I’ve seen it happen dozens of times. The difference in model output between last night and this morning is vast. All because of such tiny differences in handling certain features early on.

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
Just now, Magic Trichs said:

there are about 20 odd runs a day from all models.  They have all been consistenty cold.  We have had one run of less cold and it's game over.  

Pull yourself together man!

One run? You haven't viewed the last two ECM runs?

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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20

Yes, the trend is not what we want to see but it's far from "game over".  We need to wait for tonights' 12z runs to see if the trend is maintained or reversed.

Even the 6z GFS is close to being a really good run.

Edited by mulzy
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Posted
  • Location: Waltham Abbey, West Essex 144ft a.s.l.
  • Weather Preferences: snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Waltham Abbey, West Essex 144ft a.s.l.

Watch the 6z will be an outlier

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire

That is game over on this attempt. I’m usually quite positive but not now it’s over . 

Yesterdays T144 6z was great 5B917915-7F45-4EF8-978A-8078364FCADB.thumb.png.391852811e61ac43fceef781aea6d112.png

Todays T120 it nothing like it . A84B525F-7B3B-4A35-918C-DF1998ABD6F2.thumb.png.c988f6eacd8e4b43b4afbb116b7afdf4.png

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Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)

What amazes me is how the strat warming hasn't worked out. I think we should now accept that this has been a fail with no proper heights to our North. Some might remember me say this time and time again over the last week. You need proper heights to our North. Almost everyone has to backtrack on this one Inc the Meto and beeb etc. We laugh about the ceefax/teletext days of the 80.......has weather forecasting got any better since though?!

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff
  • Weather Preferences: Day 10
  • Location: Cardiff
1 minute ago, karyo said:

One run? You haven't viewed the last two ECM runs?

Two then against an overwhelmingly cold trend, cold cold cold signals consistently all saying the same thing.  Big picture needed to be borne in mind...

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Posted
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall

Before we say it's game over ? Is it not best to see what the ECM does this weekend before it's really over ?

A fair bit of bad moods around this morning they I can understand why since there was a heaven of cold just to be sent to below

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

As long as the ukmo remains rock solid, I will remain optimistic. Still time for the ecm to revert back later today. Bring on the 12z runs. 

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

Never ceases to amaze me how easily and quickly any significant cold for the UK can go to pot. Even though I’ve seen it happen dozens of times. The difference in model output between last night and this morning is vast. All because of such tiny differences in handling certain features early on.

You do kind of get a feeling that things might be risky when you see these set-ups enough, there have been a couple of warning signs that the pattern may not be as favourable as once suggested, like the upper low taking slightly longer each time to disconnect froom the PV lobe in Canada each run, like the shortwave getting ever so slightly further NE each run compared to the previous, like the US storm edging further east in its formative stages, etc.

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex

Never expected anything anyway. That’s the best way to look at it. It always looked like one of those situations that needed too many things to fall into place, and the margin for error was too small.

Don’t understand all the emotion. It’s happe s numerous times where it just takes one model to drop the cold for it all to go  wrong. Ironically where we were looking at full on reversal, it could now be back to zonality. Hope not, but ther you go.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

The small margins identified yesterday evening are magnified now ....but they remain small margins ...... for the time being ....by tomorrow they won’t exist - in either direction re this particular spell !

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Well the only thing I’d be surprised by now is if there is a bigger flip/disappointment this winter. Move over January let’s see what February has to offer! 

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

If the pattern doesn't flatten again we could see a decent NW airflow by 216hrs  being fed directly by the PV lobe, would probably bring snow down to low levels for most if we tapped into that flow and help the next possible evolution towards a sustained cold set-up...

Maxes still only 2-3C in the SE at 168hrs by the way.

ps, definitely not a mild pattern forecasted, any milder spell is going to be a 24-36hrs jobbie.

 

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
6 minutes ago, Magic Trichs said:

there are about 20 odd runs a day from all models.  They have all been consistenty cold.  We have had one run of less cold and it's game over.  

Pull yourself together man!

You haven’t checked all the runs then I take it? It’s only really the UKMO that shows any decent potential now.

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Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District

Ask yourself the question.

If nobody had seen the EC46 and Met Office longer range musings, would the picture of Narnia be in your sights quite as much.?

Because that picture has been painted, it skews our thinking.

It's not worth worrying about.

At least it's not Brexit, for some it's seems like Brrrrr..exit.

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Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

As long as the ukmo remains rock solid, I will remain optimistic. Still time for the ecm to revert back later today. Bring on the 12z runs. 

At least if we expect nothing won't be disappointed! But I think the trend is not good! 

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Posted
  • Location: Runcorn
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWWWWWWWW
  • Location: Runcorn

We still have the 12Z, the ECM and the (highly anticipated) UKMO later on today. There's still time you guys, in the words of Michael Jackson, KEEP THE FAITH!

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