Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
5 minutes ago, kold weather said:

I worry too because the arctic looks pretty unfavourable on the ECM. I know the GFS goes for it, but given the downwelling happening we maybe about to lose some prime time.

Do you feel like it might just be one of those wintets where the vortex is just poorly located for us?

Nope - it will hit but it may take a few bites (assuming this one has missed which I’m not 100% sold on - I was never 100% sold on it hitting either ) ......... just a shame we are missing wintry time (and yes I remember beg last March but they were exceptional sypnotics at  and I recall looking at the slow thaw as the drizzle fell out of my window and thinking how incredible it could have been a month earlier ).  Chins up! 

  • Like 7
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire

If this ends up been correct then it also shows the trop on this occasion is king over the strat, don't shoot the messenger gang but as I said if it can go wrong then it will, 

May go the entire winter snowless now there's a thought!!!

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Nope - it will hit but it may take a few bites (assuming this one has missed which I’m not 100% sold on - I was never 100% sold on it hitting either ) ......... just a shame we are missing wintry time (and yes I remember beg last March but they were exceptional sypnotics at  and I recall looking at the slow thaw as the drizzle fell out of my window and thinking how incredible it could have been a month earlier ).  Chins up! 

Cool, let's hope it is worth the wait. The fact muzzy says the extended are still good is good to hear. GFS ensembles also are still fairly good down the line into early Feb, lots of cold zonal runs with blocking hinted at.

Many won't believe it if it's advertised again though, it's upto us to take it at each merit but fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me I suppose will be the thought.

Edited by kold weather
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
2 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

ECM huge backtrack as The Slug fights back.  Its a big swipe at such short timescale, for me it makes it poor as well as the others....because if it was so good how come such a climb down at such short range.?  Ah well.....we definitely ain’t there yet 

 

BFTP

The pattern was dependant on a system leaving the esb (in a developing amplified n American pattern - tough to get that right)  and then, once that failed to live up to its billing, an arctic ridge (more of a node)  appeared on the scene to rescue things .....but they are fickle things .... it’s not quite past the point of no return for next weekend ....

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
4 minutes ago, mulzy said:

FWIW, the ext EPS (days 12-15) rock solid with a cold pattern.  Very low heights over Europe with heights rising to the north-west as advertised by the EC46 many times.

GP alluded to this exactly this yesterday-

And the EC mean keeps this euro low anomaly throughout, it may well be EC trumps the others regarding 96-120, even if it does, as your post shows, all is far from lost..

The over riding feeling this morning is frustration, understandably..but upgrades are not out of the question ..

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
12 minutes ago, Heaywave said:

I am new to this forum, can someone tell me I heard somewhere ecm was updating to 4 runs a day I might be wrong. 

I hope not!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
7 minutes ago, mulzy said:

FWIW, the ext EPS (days 12-15) rock solid with a cold pattern.  Very low heights over Europe with heights rising to the north-west as advertised by the EC46 many times.

Actualy you can kind of see that already on the day 10 means with the Azores hihh pivoting and the upper trough nearby with NW winds. I could easily see a solution where that upper trough drops further.

Remains to be seen how cold that pattern can get, it's not typically a great one for deep cold unless we already have a good cold pool nearby.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The pattern was dependant on a system leaving the esb (in a developing amplified n American pattern - tough to get that right)  and then, once that failed to live up to its billing, an arctic ridge (more of a node)  appeared on the scene to rescue things .....but they are fickle things .... it’s not quite past the point of no return for next weekend ....

It isn’t but then yesterday morning it was almost all supported.  For me models are t72/96 restricted.....beyond that....well.

UKMO model 12z is the one today....I think it’ll jump ‘towards’ ECM.

Interesting that GFS holds back a bit then goes into the deep freeze.....could the ECM be too extreme a move and edge back a bit?  Very possible

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
6 minutes ago, Tuxedo said:

 

Ensemble mean of the EC at 144 is fairly conclusive I'd have thought, but like others, I hold total judgement until the 12z suite. 

If this is a fail, into Feb we look! 

Edited by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on.
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

GP alluded to this exactly this yesterday-

And the EC mean keeps this euro low anomaly throughout, it may well be EC trumps the others regarding 96-120, even if it does, as your post shows, all is far from lost..

The over riding feeling this morning is frustration, understandably..but upgrades are not out of the question ..

If I actually recall 2012 right, wasn’t it the 12z GFS that signalled the initial let down, and the ECM with the egg on its face? It’s like a complete role reversal going on here. The GFS was usually the first on board to signal the Atlantic break through. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Yes - to day 6 but not for public consumption at all (afaik)

incidentally, here is the 10/15 uppers from the eps - coldest yet this winter at such a range 

DC3FB5E2-D8BE-4752-9BEA-8AB2EDE27A60.thumb.jpeg.b6618ac4730d2b3fd1c18669dba87c14.jpeg

Good mean, sure does feel like we are chasing that pot of gold at the end of the rainbow mind you!

Looking forward to seeing what the extended ranges look like, still have the whole of Feb to go.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
1 minute ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

It isn’t but then yesterday morning it was almost all supported.  For me models are t72/96 restricted.....beyond that....well

 

BFTP

It wasn’t all supported though . We didn’t have all the models with the same pattern days 6/8. Far from it. Yes the trough drops but still no certainty as to how the ridge follows and how flat it bacame thereafter. Good means need to have good spreads for certainty. I haven’t told anyone about snow being a problem as yet ....... unless they live on a northern hill. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
1 minute ago, kold weather said:

Good mean, sure does feel like we are chasing that pot of gold at the end of the rainbow mind you!

Looking forward to seeing what the extended ranges look like, still have the whole of Feb to go.

We are 12 days from the end of this month!! We don’t know where we will be in 5 days time.

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Yes - to day 6 but not for public consumption at all (afaik)

incidentally, here is the 10/15 uppers from the eps - coldest yet this winter at such a range 

DC3FB5E2-D8BE-4752-9BEA-8AB2EDE27A60.thumb.jpeg.b6618ac4730d2b3fd1c18669dba87c14.jpeg

No doubt this storm across the pond has complicated things Blue, i'm still happy to see the Euro low, which will be our saviour ...

Its an excellent signal- 

No panic from me, although i accept things maybe 'delayed'..

One has to be realistic..

Edited by northwestsnow
  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
3 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

If I actually recall 2012 right, wasn’t it the 12z GFS that signalled the initial let down, and the ECM with the egg on its face? It’s like a complete role reversal going on here. The GFS was usually the first on board to signal the Atlantic break through. 

UKMO never backed it at all, all of the ECM ensembles followed it.

There's been other cases that the UKMO has trumped other models which is why it's been titled the Slayer and such.

Don't move anywhere till the UKMO goes with it.

  • Like 6
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow, Thunder storms and lightning
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands

 

4 minutes ago, eddy88888 said:

So why is this expert from the met office saying at the end of his forcast from this morning their could be cold and disruptive snow next week dont you think he knows the models etc should listen to him, here is link https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

UKMO and gfs support the cold outlook at present and we also cant see what Glosea is saying. Expect it to change if they both jump ship later. But it's very finely balanced.

 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Kildare, Ireland
  • Location: Kildare, Ireland

Schadenfreuders dream here this morning, you gotta love em though

The influence of the beast from the west coming out of states may be overstated by the ECM after the initial data is fed in, it seems hard to believe one system can disrupt two large HP cells hell bent on a love affair so drastically.  I’m gonna check back it in at 18:24, I don’t look at the models anymore, it’s much more fun just catching up in here ?

Edited by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

It wasn’t all supported though . We didn’t have all the models with the same pattern days 6/8. Far from it. Yes the trough drops but still no certainty as to how the ridge follows and how flat it bacame thereafter. Good means need to have good spreads for certainty. I haven’t told anyone about snow being a problem as yet ....... unless they live on a northern hill. 

It was supported well enough Nick by each op yesterday morning.  I’ve always gone for a transient Scandi HP which will directly then  indirectly, then directly etc affect us as I seem a futher diving displaced PV NW/SE towards us towards months end.  That means I was quite surprised by the strength of some easterlies...but happy if they come off. I think ECM jump is too extreme, but also think we’ll see a general move away from major easterly into transient ones at this early stage. Its about the troughing over us and into Europe for me

 

BFTP

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...