Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?

[SMU]

Today 12z is going to be the equivalent of sitting down to watch the weather model Royal Rumble..!

Anyway ECM mean @144 backs the op-

So are T120 we are totally in no mans land with a solution..

Edited January 19, 2019 by Steve Murr

[bluearmy]

Just now, Steve Murr said:

Today 12z is going to be the equivalent of sitting down to watch the weather mode Royal Rumble..!

Anyway ECM mean @144 backs the op-

So are T120 we are totally in no mans land with a solution..

I think we just lost another week ...........

[The Eagle]

ECM 144 mean

Not the best. I'll give it to the 12z before calling it though. 

[frosty ground]

2 minutes ago, mulzy said:

The EPS in the medium term (days 6-8) definitely trending backwards.  Looks a lot more troughy around the UK allied with losing any tenuous heights to the north.  Not great sadly but it's just one suite.

It’s also the ECM  the best model and two runs on the bounce we have a direction of travel. It’s not done but it’s gonna take a turn around.

 

this one change will have large knock on effects down the line the next 46 sayer is going to be different 

[The Eagle]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Today 12z is going to be the equivalent of sitting down to watch the weather mode Royal Rumble..!

Anyway ECM mean @144 backs the op-

So are T120 we are totally in no mans land with a solution..

Is that a thinly disguised apology for icon? 

[Roger J Smith]

Too bad Doctor Who is not a member of this forum, then we could just sit back in total confidence.

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

 

Looking back at a post of mine last night, I’d actually like to address something, where I said Darren Bett is a mildy. That was wrong of me, he’s a professional of his field, is also human being. So I’m not really sure why I said that and would absolutely like to take that back. Pretty annoyed with myself I’m truth!

 

Lol! 

That paragraph sounds like you've just been messaged by Darren himself asking you to retract what you said before he sues you 

[kold weather]

4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Today 12z is going to be the equivalent of sitting down to watch the weather mode Royal Rumble..!

Anyway ECM mean @144 backs the op-

So are T120 we are totally in no mans land with a solution..

I hate to say it but I do think the direction of travel is pretty clear for all of us now.

Warning signs have been there with that shortwave edging closer and closer to Iceland every single run (which is why I analysed to death, that is why I did not relax yesterday!) along with the trough being slightly slower. I felt like a broken record and people complained but there was a good reason for it.

Its still possible we could get a victory but odds fobeeem to be getting worse. My gut tells me the 06z is going yo fall in line with the para/control GFS. Pray I'm wrong!

Edited January 19, 2019 by kold weather

[frosty ground]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I think we just lost another week ...........

Ha ha make that two and now we are looking at mid month February

not sure the Extended EPS averages and 46 dayer that has promised so much and delivered so little should be used as much

[kold weather]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I think we just lost another week ...........

I worry too because the arctic looks pretty unfavourable on the ECM. I know the GFS goes for it, but given the downwelling happening we maybe about to lose some prime time.

Do you feel like it might just be one of those wintets where the vortex is just poorly located for us?

[frosty ground]

4 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

Is that a thinly disguised apology for icon? 

Icon is not a great model the stats show that but past performance does not guarantee future returns 

[Team Jo]

Morning Cold-Chasers..

Before we kick off another fraught day in here, please remember that the models do not dictate the weather, and it is pointless picking holes and overanalysing and getting yourself in a tizz over computer generated statistical simulations. It really isn’t! I know everyone is dying for a day off work BUT..

Every single cold event has its wobbles. Unfortunately with the wobbles seem to come unhelpful posts- and for anyone that saw my post last night which is probably 10000 pages back, I talked about one-upmanship. So once again-there are no prizes for being the person who declared that this would be a bust already. If you like the feeling of being right and dwelling jn the misery of others, this isn’t the place for you. The tone of some of the ‘I told you so’ posts creeping in already is really unpleasant and unnecessary. This isn’t what this forum is about and is not in the spirit of things at all.

If you wouldn’t say it to someone in the pub for fear of losing some teeth, it’s probably best not typed out and posted. I appreciate that these scenarios cause emotions to run high but it’s not okay to turn on one another. It’s also not very cool to mudtrack into twitter - going off and complaining about this forum and it’s posters on a public platform replying to senior Meteorologists just makes you look like a child. If you have an issue, please report it to the team.

Finally any obviously trolling or wind up posts will be removed and you’ll find yourself unable to post for a bit. 

PLEASE be nice to each other. Otherwise might be best turn your screen off and enjoy some cold air- it’s not like it was in December!

[bluearmy]

Having viewed the spreads at day 5/6, I would give this another twelve hours ....... the fat lady may not quite have left the stage for end this week but she’s defo ripped up her contract whilst the promoter is scrambling on the floor with some sellotape ......

[frosty ground]

5 minutes ago, kold weather said:

I hate to say it but I do think the direction of travel is pretty clear for all of us now.

Warning signs have been there with that shortwave edging closer and closer to Iceland every single run (which is why I analysed to death, that is why I did not relax yesterday!) along with the trough being slightly slower. I felt like a broken record and people complained but there was a good reason for it.

Its still possible we could get a victory but odds fobeeem to be getting worse. My gut tells me the 06z is going yo fall in line with the para/control GFS. Pray I'm wrong!

The heights to the north being further north is the reason there is no link up and the reason energy is allowed to remain

[Ravelin]

So it appears that this morning we have the well regarded ECM model backing away from the cold solution at relatively short range, and we have the maybe even more well regarded UKMO model edging towards the colder solution at relatively short range. 

What a conundrum. 

There's only one thing to do in these situations..... Lights off, back to sleep. 

[Heaywave]

I am new to this forum, can someone tell me I heard somewhere ecm was updating to 4 runs a day I might be wrong. 

[karlos1983]

Well at least it doesn’t look likely that D7 will verify!

which makes you wonder where it it goes wrong initially.......

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Having viewed the spreads at day 5/6, I would give this another twelve hours ....... the fat lady may not quite have left the stage for end this week but she’s defo ripped up her contract whilst the promoter is scrambling on the floor with some sellotape ......

Yes i think as Steve posted earlier, the 12zs will be fascinating viewing..

Such a shame the EC did a u-turn after viewing the 12z UKMO/GFS yesterday..

It might u-turn again this evening..

Day 10 mean still looks cold with the euro low in place to our SE..

[kold weather]

About a 3c uptick in the 850hpa temps on day 7 compared to 3 suites ago...ouch!

Looks like it goes wrong as early as 72hrs on the models. 

Just proves the models still have a ways to go.

Northwest, yeah still seems like troughing nearby us keeping winds NW, nothing mild in the horzion, looks average, maybe a little below still.

Edited January 19, 2019 by kold weather

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

With it still being at 96-120 hours out, that is a long time in these types of scenarios. Watch out for a bounce back. I’ve seen an easterly disappear at 24 hours out and then suddenly re appear again. December 2005 easterly. 

[smith25]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes i think as Steve posted earlier, the 12zs will be fascinating viewing..

Such a shame the EC did a u-turn after viewing the 12z UKMO/GFS yesterday..

It might u-turn again this evening..

Day 10 mean still looks cold with the euro low in place to our SE..

I think it will be sunday morning it will turn around... just a hunch.

[Stuie]

Morning, safe to come in?

Didn`t want to see the EC do that again but at least we have the UKMO.... for now.

 

[mulzy]

FWIW, the ext EPS (days 12-15) rock solid with a cold pattern.  Very low heights over Europe with heights rising to the north-west as advertised by the EC46 many times.

Edited January 19, 2019 by mulzy

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

ECM huge backtrack as The Slug fights back.  Its a big swipe at such short timescale, for me it makes it poor as well as the others....because if it was so good how come such a climb down at such short range.?  Ah well.....we definitely ain’t there yet 

 

BFTP

[Frosty.]

Think I must be missing something, the models look cold next week with a risk of snow..in that respect, nothing has changed!!!!!!!