Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?

[Banbury]

I'm expecting a NW / SE slider followed by an Easterly between 168 -216

[booferking]

EC46 anomaly was more Greenland high that's were i see ECM shiting later on not scandy.

[Djdazzle]

1 minute ago, Banbury said:

I don't think anyone has every said the cold is nailed on 

 No but some people posting like it was.

[kold weather]

2 minutes ago, Banbury said:

I'm expecting a NW / SE slider followed by an Easterly between 168 -216

I think we'd be lucky if that came off, flow is very zonal by 144hrs and that's obviously not good. Hopefully we can get a good NW flow at some point though later in the run ,especially if it tries to make a west based -ve NAO again.

Hate to say to people, this is VERY borderline and I said all along that the trend has been moving the wrong way with these small shifts eastwards. For all those who have criticised me for 'overanalysing'...this is why...small shifts over time make big differences...

Edited January 19, 2019 by kold weather

[The Eagle]

 

 

ICON

 

ECM

[Roger J Smith]

Solutions like ECM are based on mid-Atlantic ridge staying east of 30W, close enough to catch Ireland and western Britain (if not all of Britain) in a somewhat milder flow -- it will still be rather cold however. Other solutions are based on this ridge either weakening to such an extent that a Scandi high can take over, or retrogressing to 35-40 W and clearing a path for easterly winds to reach Britain (and perhaps Ireland). 

I would say the more likely outcome is the western Atlantic position. There are signs of retrogression just starting up now in North America with this current low pushing up warmer air and the next one in four days' time heading for the central Great Lakes. I will stick my neck out a bit and say that I think the model trend later this weekend will generally fall in line with the colder solutions now available. This is partly because I think retrogression will peak in early February and so the train is just starting to pull out of the station. And usually a retrograde episode will be accompanied by a strong Scandi high, so I do expect to see one materializing by early to middle of next week. Forecasts should be hedged though, this is no guarantee either way. 

[Weathizard]

The 0z has done this literally countless times recently, I’m not saying it’s right or wrong but it’s too much to be a coincidence now it’s beyond that! Keep calm till the 12s IMO.

 

edit: going to be a few sore heads when people wake up and see this monstrosity  

Edited January 19, 2019 by Weathizard

[ICE COLD]

2 minutes ago, booferking said:

EC46 anomaly was more Greenland high that's were i see ECM shiting later on not scandy.

Well I can’t even see the EC46 being right now mate . I mean the ECM picked up the easterly first and dropped it just like that , so if that can happen at day 5/6 what chance does the even longer range have . Disappointed so disappointed  

[Banbury]

ECM 168 is so different to yesterday's 12z well in FI at this stage 

[Mucka]

3 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

I'm just saying, it's going to be proved most accurate again and at decent range. 

I'm happy about that, not about the outcome for cold. 

2nd best model after the ECM for me.

Disappointed for everyone looking for a quick route to severe cold though.

Well if it does turn out to be right then I will take more notice of it in future but we don't know whether it is or not yet.

The models often flip flop on these knife edge situations and Easterlies are notorious for failing once they get  inside the 120/144 range.

There are plenty of twists and turns to come yet. 

No reason we shouldn't get a 2nd or even 3rd bite at the cherry int his set up if needed.

[snowangel32]

4 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

If it does go wrong this should be bookmarked to teach people a lesson for the future. Nothing is ever nailed on until T48.

We have seen it happen before most famously that ECM. But this time the background signals were so good at one point all models had agreement. There's still time to pull it bk. But at present the writing does seem on the wall for this opportunity. I still think it's 50/50 though just that damm shortwave.

[Djdazzle]

Just now, ICE COLD said:

Well I can’t even see the EC46 being right now mate . I mean the ECM picked up the easterly first and dropped it just like that , so if that can happen at day 5/6 what chance does the even longer range have . Disappointed so disappointed  

Weren’t the EC46 solidly behind last summer’s heatwave continuing through August? I wouldn’t trust them either,

[shaky]

3 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Well I can’t even see the EC46 being right now mate . I mean the ECM picked up the easterly first and dropped it just like that , so if that can happen at day 5/6 what chance does the even longer range have . Disappointed so disappointed  

Totally agreee and look how flat the atlantic is at 168 hours!!!back to square one lol!!unbelievable!!no scandi heights no greenland heights!!just crazy!!

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

3 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

Solutions like ECM are based on mid-Atlantic ridge staying east of 30W, close enough to catch Ireland and western Britain (if not all of Britain) in a somewhat milder flow -- it will still be rather cold however. Other solutions are based on this ridge either weakening to such an extent that a Scandi high can take over, or retrogressing to 35-40 W and clearing a path for easterly winds to reach Britain (and perhaps Ireland). 

I would say the more likely outcome is the western Atlantic position. There are signs of retrogression just starting up now in North America with this current low pushing up warmer air and the next one in four days' time heading for the central Great Lakes. I will stick my neck out a bit and say that I think the model trend later this weekend will generally fall in line with the colder solutions now available. This is partly because I think retrogression will peak in early February and so the train is just starting to pull out of the station. And usually a retrograde episode will be accompanied by a strong Scandi high, so I do expect to see one materializing by early to middle of next week. Forecasts should be hedged though, this is no guarantee either way. 

Maybe but it's just another garden path scenerio and it got everybody walking the path again only at t96 to start changing once most thought we were home and dry but I'm so glad Iv learnt from the past years of this happening but stil get emotionally caught up in the hype that's what weather lovers do unfortunately but if it will go wrong for anyone then it will for the brits in afraid 

 

[Djdazzle]

Just now, snowangel32 said:

We have seen it happen before most famously that ECM. But this time the background signals were so good at one point all models had agreement. There's still time to pull it bk. But at present the writing does seem on the wall for this opportunity. I still think it's 50/50 though just that damm shortwave.

Background signals don’t guarantee anything though  Merely increase the probabilities.

[Roger J Smith]

You can see that the ECM takes all of the circulation of the east coast U.S. storm for this weekend south and east of Greenland, other models have it colliding with the south tip of Greenland and much of the energy staying west into the eastern Canadian arctic. Keep an eye on that detail in future model runs (it happens around Monday). This is why the cold trough over the UK on Tuesday has less bite on the ECM, it gets energy (and therefore warming) from the remnants of that system. A bit less energy might mean a lot in terms of future placements of upper features. 

[KTtom]

Well when I went to bed last night I certainly didn't expect to be waking up to any model showing southwesterlies for this time next week!

On the plus side, restrict myself to just viewing the 'big 3' to save over anylising...ecm is so different from gfs and ukmo at 144 it's untrue...

So, the usual winter battles begin....ukmo/gfs v ecm. It's never easy in the UK!

[The Eagle]

Just now, Mucka said:

Well if it does turn out to be right then I will take more notice of it in future but we don't know whether it is or not yet.

The models often flip flop on these knife edge situations and Easterlies are notorious for failing once they get  inside the 120/144 range.

There are plenty of twists and turns to come yet. 

No reason we shouldn't get a 2nd or even 3rd bite at the cherry int his set up if needed.

I don't doubt we will get another bite but the first attempt is not going to happen realistically now. It will take at least another phase in my opinion. 

I'm optimistic that we will get an easterly in the next couple of weeks.

[kold weather]

Just now, Roger J Smith said:

You can see that the ECM takes all of the circulation of the east coast U.S. storm for this weekend south and east of Greenland, other models have it colliding with the south tip of Greenland and much of the energy staying west into the eastern Canadian arctic. Keep an eye on that detail in future model runs (it happens around Monday). This is why the cold trough over the UK on Tuesday has less bite on the ECM, it gets energy (and therefore warming) from the remnants of that system. A bit less energy might mean a lot in terms of future placements of upper features. 

Oh certainly. the fact that the set-up is VERY borderline given the set-up aloft, it could just as easily slip back the other way if something isn't being modelled correctly.

ECM will probably still be at most average throughout, it doesn't exactly look mild, and we should still be roughly in a cool ish zonal flow which will bend increasingly more NW with luck.

[Panayiotis]

Not to worry guys... ECM might not show the easterly we’ve been seeing in recent days but it’s gearing up for something more special! You can clearly see the strat impact starting to take hold. Watch that mid Atlantic HP shoot up towards Greenland 192hrs+

Edited January 19, 2019 by Panayiotis

[Djdazzle]

Will wait for the 12z runs before throwing in the towel.

[Banbury]

I'm not sure how ANYONE can claim victory with anything, just look how different ECM is from yesterdays ………….consistent no its  not , not saying its wrong but its moving its own goal posts run to run 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

Will wait for the 12z runs before throwing in the towel.

Wait till tomorrows 18z before giving up on the first one maybe even Mondays 00z and 06z.. FI is still about 3 days.

Edited January 19, 2019 by Surrey

[Whether Idle]

A slap in the face from the ECM for coldies.  Will it be slapped down itself though?

[snowangel32]

2 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Well when I went to bed last night I certainly didn't expect to be waking up to any model showing southwesterlies for this time next week!

On the plus side, restrict myself to just viewing the 'big 3' to save over anylising...ecm is so different from gfs and ukmo at 144 it's untrue...

So, the usual winter battles begin....ukmo/gfs v ecm. It's never easy in the UK!

But even the UKMO and GFS were not as good with gfs some how just scraping through. UKMO could have gone either way. So what ever way we cut it Last nites Icon spotted that pesky Shortwave and now the other models have caught up. Sucks but it's how it is unfortunately.