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Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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10 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

GFSP at 180 is a stunner.  In my best Alan Partridge voice, 'yes, yes, yes, liquid weather'!!!! (a niche reference I know).

image.thumb.png.924e925cccf038d6fc44032f8e71fab8.png  image.thumb.png.a913ac85f86164982c2ebd1d4f449041.png

NWvWTg.gif

 

Parallel still solid

gfs-0-234.png?18

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Posted
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

No disrespect snowy36 but could you post the chart you are refering too

i have found it 120 hrs

arctic high evident there:oldgrin:

20190118_2316.PPVO89.thumb.png.aff5f387ff07ce302e7edaadb7f3147b.png

Superb from Exeter

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

FV3 T204:

image.thumb.jpg.5c3f79d40772efdb99a69499632f0865.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.55aff95e87eca4fae040d04a42bcc489.jpg

These low pressure systems undercutting into air as cold as this would cause absolute chaos.  And it won't stop there.  These charts 8.5 days away.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Very unstable starting NNW flow  being suggested by the fax charts, and it does tally up with the GFS runs which have been pretty consistent with dropping a decent snowfall in the west from the convection coming down, probable streamer action as well likely IMO.

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Posted
  • Location: Ynysybwl 200msl
  • Location: Ynysybwl 200msl
2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

No disrespect snowy36 but could you post the chart you are refering too

i have found it 120 hrs

arctic high evident there:oldgrin:

20190118_2316.PPVO89.thumb.png.aff5f387ff07ce302e7edaadb7f3147b.png

Sorry Ali i didn't know how to do it , oh yes its simple . I'll do it next time . Still looks closer to the ukmo/gfs than the ecw.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, kold weather said:

Very unstable starting NNW flow  being suggested by the fax charts, and it does tally up with the GFS runs which have been pretty consistent with dropping a decent snowfall in the west from the convection coming down, probable streamer action as well likely IMO.

I think there is a trough in the Blackpool area or just south meaning NW Wales/Cheshire grap could get pummelled..

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Seriously, EVERY single GFSP run has been top trumping the OP, despite how good they have also been. Almost unreal 18z GFSP.

Anyway, we really do need to see the ECM come onboard tomorrow to help shore up confidence, and I feel equally important is to keep the 00z UKMO onside as well, its dropping a set-up has spelled the death of MANY a cold spell before...

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

GORGIOUS!!!

gfsnh-0-234.thumb.png.98dc29983aab8bd213925d201af00402.png

it seems these FL charts all lead to Greenland heights after that initial Scandi one and always a good thing that as it resets the pattern for reloads from the N/NE.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

I think there is a trough in the Blackpool area or just south meaning NW Wales/Cheshire grap could get pummelled..

Yep, closer to the time watch for the met office to add a convergence line symbol on the output, it seems fairly primed to me for that to happen, may even get some left overs if there is enough of a force to it even down in CS England, models are suggesting it is possible.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, shaky said:

Well poor old ecm is a little bit isolated tonight!!!latest fax is the best i have seen in a long time and goes with the ukmo full on!!

As others have said, they usually go with their own model at 120-

Even a blend of UKMO/GFS/EC would be very good...

Major wobble but still a cold outlook.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
3 minutes ago, RAIN RAIN RAIN said:

WMC not having it

wmc-0-120.png?18-00

Oh well it was fun while it lasted

Working mens club having none of it!!!

never go there anyway.

FV3 at 276 is well,textbook again,that reload i mentioned...

gfsnh-0-276.thumb.png.d56ced152d1bdbeee445309cb521556a.png

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

Thought that GFS run was pretty epic but the GFSP is even better.

The utter borefest of the first half of this winter is fast becoming a distant memory.

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

image.thumb.png.58beea565a9fd6d62a540aab44c41181.png

No words needed feb graphe3_1000___-3.16202_56.10878_.thumb.gif.a5a3eb2ea06392453a364deb57f6a10b.gif graphe3_1001___-3.16202_56.10878_.thumb.gif.ce118eef38aaf25baf92305e1e35ae9c.gif graphe6_1000___-3.16202_56.10878_.thumb.gif.cf9ebc1002714475cdcb6362738c5404.gifgraphe6_1001___-3.16202_56.10878_.thumb.gif.2906b9748c51d7ec088fcf628cebdd90.gif 

having a quick look through the table view on the 18z GEFS for here and a cheeky little -14 850 hPa  in between these charts gens-5-1-348.thumb.png.2cad799008ab248baef80d50b8447091.png  gens-5-1-360.thumb.png.97576d6b16b1c73f7ef2ddd0ef71548e.png gens-5-0-348.thumb.png.10d51a5e3b194f7f600206f6f22a74d7.png gens-5-0-360.thumb.png.ba53b6a98c4b2a8eafc755684a81ce25.png http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=56.10878&lon=-3.16202&run=18&ext=fr&mode=0&sort=0  :cold: ❄️  

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Oh please fv3 c'on,another trough ready to drop under at 300>360.

gfsnh-0-300.thumb.png.6974de34424714fa5b633378817270c5.pnggfsnh-0-360.thumb.png.b76c20433f9472d1841eefee09dc3b30.png

i am happy with tonight's outs

brings a tear dripping to freeze on inpact.

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Monday night/tuesdays take on the snow pushing NW>SE with cold air cutting in behind the cold front.

final_synop_2_2019011812_81.thumb.jpg.4bf8fca42cf4a9a5b979a2cb09370277.jpgfinal_synop_2_2019011812_84.thumb.jpg.d3ab48338c0d7bfa74bb916ea3ecf46d.jpgfinal_synop_2_2019011812_87.thumb.jpg.36df0494fe61cd080de5da2fce36cc4c.jpgfinal_synop_2_2019011812_90.thumb.jpg.a1c626f176f06b968e5a8b0411690b93.jpg

http://www.myweather2.com/synop/player.aspx?synop=2

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl

Last post tonight - interesting to see the ensemble spread for mean see level pressure from the ECM for 7/8 days' time. 

render-gorax-green-009-b6a07f0b7be1ee2f1ad515c21ca67e14-XWBcBQ.thumb.png.e89393f3fccc8cc48477e14af1ca56bc.png

Note the greater spread to the north as the model struggles to get to grips with heights in that area. Has a big bearing on strength of the easterly and specific direction. Much still to be resolved which is why none of the more technical posters on here today have done much in the way of predicting specifics.

Good fun to be heading into a cold week where the exact pattern is still a lottery! Better than Game of Thrones.

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