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Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Ravelin Maestro

Ravelin

Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
Posted
6 minutes ago, Gadje said:

Where?

graphe3_0000___2.7397_57.265_.thumb.gif.2e3a21930f3abcff743fcb2571ccefb8.gif

As can be seen by the black (control) line on the 850s graph above. Admittedly at the coldest end of the spectrum for that date by the looks of it. 

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted (edited)

You can only read this one way

B8884815-0141-49EA-9613-1C061DA1F704.thumb.gif.e885d196da73d65e1cebb6089b4944a7.gif

gawgeous

what does it tell me? It tells me the Det went against the grain at D9&10 & I’ll be very surprised if we don’t see a much better run tomorrow.

Edited by karlos1983
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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)

FV3 T150, yes it is going for it!  And further west than 12z, here left, compared to 12z T156:

image.thumb.jpg.6dbe371949d95cc17ef64a90dcaff741.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.b3503ede0dce59704b91e3bf6dfb2fb5.jpg

And a nod to Scandi in the 18z...

Edited by Mike Poole
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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted
1 minute ago, Ravelin said:

graphe3_0000___2.7397_57.265_.thumb.gif.2e3a21930f3abcff743fcb2571ccefb8.gif

As can be seen by the black (control) line on the 850s graph above. Admittedly at the coldest end of the spectrum for that date by the looks of it. 

That is a "v" good short set of ens there,90-95%,maybe pushing 97% below -5.

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted

Hmmm GFS ensembles are still broadly in agreement with a colder evolution, but the number showing a fail has increased for sure on this suite and that has to be a slight concern as well ,you really want it going the other way as you get closer!

P14 by the way is identical to the 12z ECM upto 180hrs by the way!

Definate hints at the GFS suite trying to create a quick fire west based -ve NAO as well by 192hrs. Also a signal for the HP to move southwards towards the UK, maybe in advance of that west based -ve signal starting to show in the later parts of the runs.

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Catacol Maestro

Catacol

Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
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Posted

It's a good GFS after a below par ECM.

A lot of stuff gets said on here about ECM and GFS. Verification stats definitely favour ECM, but if you run the stats for the various models there are some interesting realities. First would be that month by month there is volatility - and while ECM tend to remain on top the other models get close. Very interestingly KMA 12z would appear to be every bit as good, if not better at times, than ECM - but we don't seem to have access to it (or does anyone know where we can get it?)

Second - and maybe not so good after today!! - ECM 12z verifies much better than ECM 00z for the European area in the medium range (72 - 168) pretty much always....and often by quite a lot.

But finally - and here is a twist. Which model performed best at 240h in Feb 2018, the last time we had a SSW impacted pattern? (and was only just behind ECM in March)? JMA. If you don't believe me - here's the graph. JMA by a whisker, over ECM 12z.

1135861167_2019-01-18(2).thumb.png.551dd6bbdcb15f7bb9fec8efac5dcceb.png

The other model which recently has been very close to ECM verification is CMC (GEM). At 192 no difference through December compared to ECM.

So - if there is a moral to this story it is that we probably shouldn't ever discount any run. For me ECM blew GFS away with the trough forecast BUT once GFS got a handle on the trough it appears to have got a handle on the trajectory more quickly than ECM, guilty perhaps again of over amplification. Weight of evidence is now saying snow for north and east on Tuesday, but definitely not so good for us SW folk...

Later in the week? Bit tired tonight after a long day - and I'm going to hold fire on details still. To me the ECM evolution after 168 looks all wrong from a hemispheric angle with a quashing of the arctic high and very little extension of the Alaskan ridge - and the other models appear much cleaner and well formed with more heights over the pole. Prepared to disregard it a bit, assuming things improve tomorrow, though let's not forget the 12z verifies better.

So - finish on something optimistic. If the JMA verified best in Feb 2018 at 240h what does it see for now? Pretty good.

J240-21.thumb.gif.19e3fecb36f8b4cb77af7c986cb5032d.gif

 

 

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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted

GFSP at 180 is a stunner.  In my best Alan Partridge voice, 'yes, yes, yes, liquid weather'!!!! (a niche reference I know).

image.thumb.png.924e925cccf038d6fc44032f8e71fab8.png  image.thumb.png.a913ac85f86164982c2ebd1d4f449041.png

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

The fv3 upping the anti,trough undercut incoming and a better profile with more height's to our north though the 12z wasn't bad neither,

gfsnh-0-186.thumb.png.a3384cdadc5f3e64131afef10960d4ab.png

 

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kumquat Seasoned

kumquat

Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Popular Post
Posted

If nothing else, I swear I am going to "like " this cold armageddon into existence

gfsnh-0-186.png?18

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted

Interestingly some of those 'fail' runs actually still turn out good, the LP that commits the crime just dives SE as the Arctic high flexes its strength. That's a big advantage of having a quick build upper high like the GFS is trying tonight, a slower evolution probably doesn't have that luxury.

Also a lot of the colder ensemble members end up with HP close to the UK, with a cold high set-up at 192hrs. I've gotta think those runs are just waiting to get scooped up by the next round of blocking, providing it doesn't set-up shop too far west.

Tomorrow morning going to be important run, the low is now well into the formation stages so the models really should start to have a good hold on it, indeed that is true for both the main LP players.

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted
2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The fv3 upping the anti,trough undercut incoming and a better profile with more height's to our north though the 12z wasn't bad neither,

gfsnh-0-186.thumb.png.a3384cdadc5f3e64131afef10960d4ab.png

 

Omnipresent Euro trough 8)

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted
3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Clearly, the 18z GEFS are very cold out to the 26th of Jan, bar the odd run...

 

Only a couple look average at the surface (I don't see any 'mild' runs) and most are cold, regardless of whether its deep cold from the east/north or whether its due to a surface high over the UK.

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted
2 minutes ago, snowy36 said:

The latest Fax chart looks alright .

No disrespect snowy36 but could you post the chart you are refering too

i have found it 120 hrs

arctic high evident there:oldgrin:

20190118_2316.PPVO89.thumb.png.aff5f387ff07ce302e7edaadb7f3147b.png

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ITSY Seasoned

ITSY

Posted
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
Posted

Reloading pattern via sliders, a pattern we’ve become accustomed to in the last few days. Just a tad chilly! 

A3C6E667-70DD-4D43-9B7A-39629A3CE3EF.png

88E79B46-5565-48B6-A10E-981C98A1D43A.png

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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted

GFSP at 222.....  fantastic.  I've seen enough, goodnight fellow cold lunatics.  A restless night to come!

image.thumb.png.932dc169500ee9b19ab6105f8741d262.png image.thumb.png.66cefb9c917d29fcea4e12bfe02856f9.png

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