Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?

[Catacol]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

Just want to add this thought to the mix. It was mentioned on here a few years ago that although the ecm was regarded as the best model in general, this was based on it's medium to long term performance. Up to day 4 it was not the most reliable and we should look more towards the ukmo at this timeframe. Something to ponder after that ecm 12z op. 

Yes - I think this is right. UKMO in the reliable time frame tends to trump the others often I think.

 

[bluearmy]

Just now, DiagonalRedLine said:

Tonight’s 500mb 6 to 10 day, and 8 to 14 day anomaly charts from the NOAA/CPC would, overall, favour a chillier than average outlook for the U.K with a North-Westerly upper flow over us. 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

Lower than average heights to the South-East of the U.K favouring European troughing. Mean areas of ridging held out to our West in the Atlantic. So more cold than mild I’d say for numerous areas of the U.K.

While not the best charts for determining how settled or unsettled it could be, there would quite likely be a wintry mix of weather at times between the 6 to 14 day period. Though operational and short-range high resolution models will always the best guide for specific detail of the amount of precipitation, including snow, that might occur! 

When the 12z ec suite moves, these charts don’t reflect at all as it isn’t  included ........ however, the message in the 8/14 period mean hasn’t really changed 

[Spah1]

8 minutes ago, stratty said:

 

GFS sticking with it's snowy early Tuesday scene atm 

Looks like rain to wet snow to me. 

 

[chionomaniac]

Kind of chart we search all winter for at just T+132...

 

 

[MattStoke]

GFS looking good. Thank goodness! Might calm some nerves in here.

[Mair Snaw]

3 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Looks like rain to wet snow to me. 

 

looks like snow for me..

[seabreeze86]

GFS still going for it as others have said a stronger Arctic wedge of heights helps us a lot here.  Let's just enjoy this run because anything could happen on the morning runs. But I will say this the ECM always has a wobble before a easterly let's hope this is it

[Updated_Weather]

1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

GFS looking good. Thank goodness! Might calm some nerves in here.

It is a pub run after all! Can we ever complain with what it throws up?

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, chionomaniac said:

Kind of chart we search all winter for at just T+132...

 

 

Do you think we are still in business Ed? -  Darren Bett thinks not - i need something to give me confidence - the only thing that will make me feel better is a good EPS ./ ECM overnight early doors.

[Derecho]

GFS 18z looks fine to me!

[karlos1983]

6 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

With respect, I was responding to Steve Murr's early comment. I disagreed with him. Thanks for the advice.

Fair enough RD, was just a bit of fun, like the shaky stuff, .

looking like a good run anyway

Edited January 18, 2019 by karlos1983

[MattStoke]

1 minute ago, Updated_Weather said:

It is a pub run after all! Can we ever complain with what it throws up?

It's consistent with previous runs.

[karlos1983]

Epic 

[Mike Poole]

4 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

They were fairly big differences, especially so early on. The Arctic high was also more amplified, so that saved the day somewhat!

This is important I think.  The arctic high signal is from the SSW and will only increase now that the wind reversal is down welling into the trop.  Ironically the ECM 12z actually showed a stronger arctic high before it's run was derailed by other stuff.  That won't be happening in a day or so, or I'll eat my socks after I've been to the gym.

[feb1991blizzard]

Now if we could get this inside 72 on all three models then BOOM!

That's going to be a right dumping followed by a beast with really cold uppers.

[blizzard81]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Do you think we are still in business Ed? -  Darren Bett thinks not - i need something to give me confidence - the only thing that will make me feel better is a good EPS ./ ECM overnight early doors.

We need two things. Firstly, we need a damned good ecm 00z op in the morning. Secondly, we need to stop listening to what Darren Bett says. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

better than 12Z now, but this run not the key, the EC 00Z is

Edited January 18, 2019 by I remember Atlantic 252

[Weathizard]

GAME ON @feb1991blizzard  

[Rocheydub]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

This is important I think.  The arctic high signal is from the SSW and will only increase now that the wind reversal is down welling into the trop.  Ironically the ECM 12z actually showed a stronger arctic high before it's run was derailed by other stuff.  That won't be happening in a day or so, or I'll eat my socks after I've been to the gym.

Actually agree 100% with this. Think cold is fully nailed on, the path to it is up for choice!

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

8 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Were home @ dry for the 18z Beast-

T132

The Arctic / Scandi High further which is very good !

What is your view on the percentage chance of the Beast after this afternoon's and this evening's runs Steve?  

[Guest]

1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

It's consistent with previous runs.

Absolutely. Very encouraging to see it follow the 12z reasonably closely. @feb1991blizzard don't pay too much attention to Darren Bett as he is notorious for pooh-poohing cold weather. Take solace in the solid 18z output, get some sleep and like the rest of us await the 00z outputs with a mixture of cautious optimism and nervous trepidation!

 

 

[Ice Day]

168 is just beautiful, just enjoy it

   

I think we'll get a potent easterly with cold locked in on this run?

[northwestsnow]

Nice trough moving into the SE @168-

Plenty of snow for you guys on 18z..

[Mike Poole]

All sorts incoming from the east, holy shmoley, pub runT174:

[Wilxy]