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Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted (edited)

V-intersting move by the 18z..further west..

And better feed for the canadian dieing lobe..

Worth a note....

Also the polar dynamics...fit its previous..notable runs!!!

gfsnh-0-78 (1).png

Edited by tight isobar
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blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted
1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

GFS a step more amplified through 78 & the jet profiles mean more of a Pressure rise east of Greenland...

Indeed. Don't normally trust the pub run but at 78hrs out - surely

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Rocheydub Seasoned

Rocheydub

Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

GFS a step more amplified through 78 & the jet profiles mean more of a Pressure rise east of Greenland...

You're not concerned about that shortwave west of Greenland at 84 Steve? Pressure is deeper between Ice-Greenland at 90 on pub run as opposed to 96 on 12z.

Edited by Rocheydub
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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted

Tue snow event looks better again , could see some early METO warnings for some places - not necessarily the North. Going to be a good run, big freeze IS ON!! 

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
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Posted (edited)

There’s literally zero change that I can see so far on the 18z. I wear glasses, but I’m pretty sure it’s almost identical out to +90

18z/12z

184851C9-3483-4B11-9E6A-5739199650FB.thumb.png.e72e31978e322757dde8168189cc8fb2.png47AF5219-B400-43DD-9F1E-A46C559364AE.thumb.png.3dd611002b481bb7d57f2d870ffe399b.png

Edited by karlos1983
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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted
1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Tue snow event looks better again , could see some early METO warnings for some places - not necessarily the North. Going to be a good run, big freeze IS ON!! 

NW areas Stockport, pasted through Cheshire Gap, winds turn more NW'ly then could be Midlands too

gfs-0-102.png?18

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Rocheydub Seasoned

Rocheydub

Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
Posted

As I said above, ridging is suppressed slightly with deeper pressure between Green/Iceland between 84 through to 96 and while it may only delay the ridging, it's a biggish change very early on!

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stratty Aficionado

stratty

Posted
  • Location: Mid Welsh/English Border
  • Weather Preferences: Snow! Exciting weather!
  • Location: Mid Welsh/English Border
Posted (edited)

 

image.thumb.png.7bc8ce3f9d6ca50e81d4c71f490a78aa.png GFS sticking with it's snowy early Tuesday scene atm 

Edited by Mapantz
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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

There’s literally zero change that I can see so far on the 18z. I wear glasses, but I’m pretty sure it’s almost identical out to +90

18z/12z

184851C9-3483-4B11-9E6A-5739199650FB.thumb.png.e72e31978e322757dde8168189cc8fb2.png47AF5219-B400-43DD-9F1E-A46C559364AE.thumb.png.3dd611002b481bb7d57f2d870ffe399b.png

Yes I'm seeing little change as well so far. Just as well given it's supposedly in the reliable timeframe! 

Tuesday will no doubt be a nowcast event but it's primed for a snowy outbreak somewhere.

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Banbury Experienced

Banbury

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
Posted
22 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

It did yesterday evening  - the charts at 9:57 were the 00z op and not the 12z. Whether that reflected that they didn’t believe the 12z , I wouldn’t know ......but they had the Iceland ridge as per the 00z op 

sorry jo ......

That's only Thursdays though 

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted
1 minute ago, Rocheydub said:

As I said above, ridging is suppressed slightly with deeper pressure between Green/Iceland between 84 through to 96 and while it may only delay the ridging, it's a biggish change very early on!

There’s a touch of irony in your post sir. Let it run a while :whistling:

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Rocheydub Seasoned

Rocheydub

Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
Posted
1 minute ago, Liima said:

Yes I'm seeing little change as well so far. Just as well given it's supposedly in the reliable timeframe! 

Tuesday will no doubt be a nowcast event but it's primed for a snowy outbreak somewhere.

Look again, there are big differences in the pressure areas of importance between Greenland and Iceland.

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Rocheydub Seasoned

Rocheydub

Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
Posted
1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

There’s a touch of irony in your post sir. Let it run a while :whistling:

Indeed, but these are big differences, not minuscule!!!

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
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Posted
2 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

As I said above, ridging is suppressed slightly with deeper pressure between Green/Iceland between 84 through to 96 and while it may only delay the ridging, it's a biggish change very early on!

Yes, but the stronger arctic high signal looks to override this on this run, pub run T114 v 12z T120:

image.thumb.jpg.f4650d72d9483268d20bcfe3ed21e733.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.9aa07bc6a3d0c54a3c536fa564470722.jpg

 

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Rocheydub said:

Look again, there are big differences in the pressure areas of importance between Greenland and Iceland.

What do you class as big differences? I agree there are differences but to me they are minor and typical of an updated output ie subtle changes. So far it isn't having a major effect. 

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blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted

Just want to add this thought to the mix. It was mentioned on here a few years ago that although the ecm was regarded as the best model in general, this was based on it's medium to long term performance. Up to day 4 it was not the most reliable and we should look more towards the ukmo at this timeframe. Something to ponder after that ecm 12z op. 

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Rocheydub Seasoned

Rocheydub

Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
Posted
1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, but the stronger arctic high signal looks to override this on this run, pub run T114 v 12z T120:

image.thumb.jpg.f4650d72d9483268d20bcfe3ed21e733.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.9aa07bc6a3d0c54a3c536fa564470722.jpg

 

Thankfully the stronger high in the Arctic saves the day, well spotted MP! Just shows the struggles on NWP in these circumstances. That was a significant difference in the Griceland area early on!

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

Indeed, but these are big differences, not minuscule!!!

However, it’s accelerated the ridging rather than delay it. 

F53952B2-AE62-479A-BC96-4D632E8DDEFD.thumb.png.a86489b80daf2b57352e55f0f94f75d3.png

You should stick to your advice because it was good advice let it run a wee while.

Edited by karlos1983
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BlueHedgehog074 Veteran

BlueHedgehog074

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
Posted

Tonight’s 500mb 6 to 10 day, and 8 to 14 day anomaly charts from the NOAA/CPC would, overall, favour a chillier than average outlook for the U.K with a North-Westerly upper flow over us. 

CA46D1C9-724C-41D2-95BA-4A3278B5A182.thumb.gif.da3e9565bb6c49600a9cb4e815c26d43.gif

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

6A6AAD3A-6492-4D2F-920C-2DAA2ECD7D83.thumb.gif.cd2b8451c086afc32ce86018152b1cec.gif

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

Lower than average heights to the South-East of the U.K favouring European troughing. Mean areas of ridging held out to our West in the Atlantic. So more cold than mild I’d say for numerous areas of the U.K.

While not the best charts for determining how settled or unsettled it could be, there would quite likely be a wintry mix of weather at times between the 6 to 14 day period. Though operational and short-range high resolution models will always the best guide for specific detail of the amount of precipitation, including snow, that might occur! 

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Rocheydub Seasoned

Rocheydub

Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
Posted
1 minute ago, Liima said:

What do you class as big differences? I agree there are differences but to me they are minor and typical of an updated output ie subtle changes. 

They were fairly big differences, especially so early on. The Arctic high was also more amplified, so that saved the day somewhat!

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Rocheydub Seasoned

Rocheydub

Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
Posted
1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

However, it’s accelerated the ridging rather than delay it. 

F53952B2-AE62-479A-BC96-4D632E8DDEFD.thumb.png.a86489b80daf2b57352e55f0f94f75d3.png

You should stick to your advice because it was good advice let it run a wee while.

With respect, I was responding to Steve Murr's early comment. I disagreed with him. Thanks for the advice.

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