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Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
7 minutes ago, shaky said:

Icon flatter at 84 hours!!lets see the rest of the run!!

Looks fine to me at 108h though!

EDIT: ICON looks good at 120h!

Edited by TomW
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

ICON better on the 18z, better ridge and looking slightly more  likely to link up with the heights in the arctic, here T120, and 12z T126 for comparison.

image.thumb.jpg.9f385e5e8ccd45fb28fbe2f96a4495c7.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.43b442600a2ad0a46754d5746041effb.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
Just now, Mike Poole said:

ICON better on the 18z, better ridge and looking slightly more  likely to link up with the heights in the arctic, here T120, and 12z T126 for comparison.

image.thumb.jpg.9f385e5e8ccd45fb28fbe2f96a4495c7.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.43b442600a2ad0a46754d5746041effb.jpg

Pattern still a tad too Far East for my liking so probably wouldn’t get the first bite like we get on the UKM/GFS, looks cleaner than it’s 12z though which is good. All academic at this stage though.

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
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Posted 1 hour ago

The two North American models are clearly seeing less disruption of a blocking easterly from the Atlantic, and I could relate that to retrogression they have indicated over North America. Time will tell if that's the case. But the GEM is known to be the most progressive-biased model so if it can find an easterly solution, that goes against its bias. The storm leaving the eastern US and Canada on Sunday-Monday heads up towards south tip of Greenland where it splits, so much depends on whether it encounters the first stages of north-south ridge building and gets shunted northwest away from the action. 

 

 

 

 

RJS

 

what does your research index model suggest as favourite?  Clearly this winter profile is a nearly but too Far East set up.  I’m not in ECM camp but middle ground again?

 

BFTP

 

 

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Thunderstorms, Heat (Summer) & Snow in Winter
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL

Some great model fun to be had lately it must be said; some of the options on the table are fantastic.  Sub zero temps and potential for disruptive snow who wouldn't sell their granny down the river for that. 

 

Let the runs well...run? Tongue in cheek Shaky...    

 

 giphy.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Thanks Marcus- FAX charts will be out soon, a real headache for the person on shift for sure!!

ICON 18Z slightly more amplified, but i can see enrgy where i dont want to see it..

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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Thanks Marcus- FAX charts will be out soon, a real headache for the person on shift for sure!!

ICON 18Z slightly more amplified, but i can see enrgy where i dont want to see it..

Thought ICON was ok

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff
  • Location: Cardiff
3 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

What I'm most disappointed about is that Tuesday seems to be almost nailed on as a rain event looking at majority of models when it had an oppurtunity for significant accumulations with heavy precipitition. Everything else is too far in FI.

Tuesday is a long way away with regard to the weather. Seen these situations upgrade plenty of times in the past

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Posted
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All seasons veteran of the 1981 winter
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

D Bett, nough said. He’s a mildy

Top post if it gets removed fair enough but that needed saying top class.

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Posted
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
8 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Firstly wrong thread 

But worth a response , D Bett showed cold NElies over the UK , this is on the Beeb web site updated at 20:56

" NWlies mid week , then look what happens NElies later in the week bring even colder air "……………….it clearly didn't follow ECM

The BBC don't have access to any more data than we view on here to the best of my knowledge.

You are far better trying to garner some insight from ITV or CH4 who still use the Met office for their forecasts.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
7 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Firstly wrong thread 

But worth a response , D Bett showed cold NElies over the UK , this is on the Beeb web site updated at 20:56

" NWlies mid week , then look what happens NElies later in the week bring even colder air "……………….it clearly didn't follow ECM

As was clear on yesterday’s forecasts, the beeb use the 00z run, even for their evening output so I’ve stopped watching them ....

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

00Z's the key, nervy hoping GFS dosen't trend towards EC, big guns on here slag GFS off, and 'hero' EC

so looking at that, EC could be right

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
4 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

Here's to a pub run special, and Shaky commentating on it in about 7 minutes. We should know about 10:15 whether we're going to get a favourable week next week for all or most!

Based on a Friday night pub run? 

Anyway, the icon 18z is still just more ecm day 5 than ukmo day 5. Unliklely to make the convincing ridge that Ukmo did 

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
4 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Id disagree with that , a forecast issued at 21:00 is still going off early morning data ? 

It did yesterday evening  - the charts at 9:57 were the 00z op and not the 12z. Whether that reflected that they didn’t believe the 12z , I wouldn’t know ......but they had the Iceland ridge as per the 00z op 

sorry jo ......

Edited by bluearmy
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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

No more on bbc, Thanks.

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Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Based on a Friday night pub run? 

I worded that badly, didn't I! 

 

I meant we'd know by 10:15 if GFS thought we'd have a favourable week!

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Just now, Rocheydub said:

I worded that badly, didn't I! 

 

I meant we'd know by 10:15 if GFS thought we'd have a favourable week!

Yeah. - especially as you took the pee out of shaky in the same post

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

I dont think UKM0 is going to be wrong at 120 personally and i suspect the FAX will be good.

Will be updated soon..

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
9 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

ECM ensembles 12Z... London mean 850s stay between minus 5C and minus 6C right out to February 1st. 

That's good news. Thanks for keeping us updated on those. 

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