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Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?

Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Hello everyone and welcome back.

18z GFS although may not be deterministic for the ins and outs on specific details for the upcoming cold spell, it will still be a good indication towards how our weather will progress for the near future.

Exciting but nervous times ahead.

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37 minutes ago, Paul said:

@Nick F has written a blog this evening that is well worth a read - looking ahead to how this cold patten may play out, and exploring how the recent SSW is now impacting the troposphere. 

Think It's Cold Now, It Could Turn Much Colder Later Next Week

Just wanted to post this in here as it's definitely worth a look.

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Yet, with all the despondency, this ecm would have got the place buzzing just 4 days ago..expectation risen a tad too much?

 

ECMOPEU12_240_1-6.png

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There's something I really like about the GEFS 12z mean...what could it be..hmmm..oh yes it becomes cold / very cold and blocked!👍😉:cold:❄️

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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

 

It doesn’t really matter how good the 18z runs are, or the beeb 10pm forecast, or the clusters .......until we see the 00z runs, we won’t really have a clue how the middle to latter part of next week will pan out . (And the likelihood is we still won’t at 9am)

hey ho ..........

Agree with this bit in particular. 

GFS 18z largely irrelevant, until we see the ECM tomorrow morning and tomorrow afternoon we won’t know if this new trend picked up by the ECM is just a wobble or something more serious. 

I made a post a couple of days ago that for the sake of people’s health you shouldn’t get overly excited by stellar runs or overly despondent by downgrades until we’re within 72 to 96hrs. 

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Ecm is completely wrong tonight  Gfs following the trend ...--1....0 to gfs 

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Where’s your money?  (my view is that those returns in the gfs are so crazy as to make the run less likely than the less likely ec !)

E7C7C6EB-DA62-47CB-9FD2-AE27A4EFE37E.thumb.jpeg.958dc3dc9c42967566cf836fd0873342.jpeg

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Just as the ball is about to cross the line the goalposts are moved!  I am not concerned with the ECM op particularly but the wider uncertainty on the ECM ensembles is a slight, repeat slight, concern that this cold spell might not get off to its start progged by most of the main models in recent runs, i.e. risk of some kind of delay.  I don't think it would be any more than that because of the increasing impact of the SSW downwelling, but I'd prefer it if we did indeed nail it first time of asking.

So to the 18z, I don't expect much change from the ICON but if it happened that would be helpful.  GFS and FV3 holding their own would be difficult anyway given the 12z output, so no significant downgrades being key.  And then, yes, over to the 0z runs....

Edited by Mike Poole

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And the golden rule still exists. The models only suggest what they think will happen, the weather will do what the weather will do. The tantrums and childish behaviour is very difficult to read.

 

As for the outputs, if you have been a member here as long as I have, you will notice that ALL the models, including the old favourites, struggle in blocked and potentially HLB scenarios. Especially on our latitude and longitude right on the edge of a continental land mass and a warm ocean. Don't take each run as gospel, more of a suggestion of how things may pan out. Keep that in mind after T72 and you'll have a much calmer life on here.

 

Roll on the 18z runs. Roll on Wintery Nirvana.

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Tonight's BBC medium range update clearly following tonight's ECM, indeed the presenter said "cold yes but this is no best from the east"

I think the GFS definitely overdoing the easterly but even the watered down version will be good compared to the miserable winter so far.

Andy

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Just now, Penrith Snow said:

Tonight's BBC medium range update clearly following tonight's ECM, indeed the presenter said "cold yes but this is no best from the east"

I think the GFS definitely overdoing the easterly but even the watered down version will be good compared to the miserable winter so far.

Andy

I interpreted that as even if we get an easterly it likely won't be as potent as last year's Beast. They won't be pinning their medium ranger on one output alone.

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Cold in a word for the foreseeable, with a high chance of becoming very cold later next week, which could hold for some time..

Repeating others but its not worth getting hung up on the models beyond the reliable timeframe, which at the moment is quite short - Wednesday, the evolution to significant cold will be determined by the path of the low heights dropping through the UK, and the location and strength of heights building in behind, which in turn will be determined by events over NE Canada - and the arctic - the two major players - remains of the shattered PV lobe over NE Canada and how this interacts with the jetstream which is projected to sink way way south, and the building of heights over the Pole - the arctic high.

There are some exceptional charts on offer at the moment in the medium term a la GFS 12z in terms of depth of severe cold and potential very disruptive snowfall, but we also have the ECM which has sobered some.

The Ensembles have held steadfast for a long time now for heights to build strongly to the NW latter part of the month and a deep trough anchoring down to our SE - this would suggest all paths leading to prolonged cold, and quite likely severe cold!

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8 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

Tonight's BBC medium range update clearly following tonight's ECM, indeed the presenter said "cold yes but this is no best from the east"

I think the GFS definitely overdoing the easterly but even the watered down version will be good compared to the miserable winter so far.

Andy

That is correct it never was in the medium range

no beast yet as under the impression that was 5 or 6 days away

fair enough if I’m wrong though.

Edited by snowbob
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Icon flatter at 84 hours!!lets see the rest of the run!!

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7 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

Tonight's BBC medium range update clearly following tonight's ECM, indeed the presenter said "cold yes but this is no best from the east"

I think the GFS definitely overdoing the easterly but even the watered down version will be good compared to the miserable winter so far.

Andy

Hmmmmmm...

Maybe EC is onto something...

Still think we will get a decent cold spell.

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Could anyone explain why the ECM was so good this morning and then less than several hours later flipped to show a much less satisfactory offering, what was the cause?

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1 minute ago, Bazray said:

Could anyone explain why the ECM was so good this morning and then less than several hours later flipped to show a much less satisfactory offering, what was the cause?

Just the size of the envelope. Look at the ensembles graph. The Det could have sat anywhere in that envelope, we just happen to have seen a few cold runs recently. Time will tell, but the 12z can’t be disregarded 

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Not concerned with that ECM run, for a few reasons.

1. It doesn’t really backup the ECM seasonal models, which have performed well this winter.

2. The outlook is cold and it is only a question of how cold. Even if next week’s easterly doesn’t cut it, there will be further opportunities.

I’ll only be concerned if various models move to a mild outlook, but there is nothing remotely mild looking likely for the next few weeks.

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