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Model banter returns

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Just now, danm said:

Did the beast last year not convince you of that fact? Agree, it takes something very special to deliver in March, but it can happen. 

I know full well that it can snow in March, I said that, but the sun was strong and it was a case of drip. drip, drip during daylight hours, I really hate that. Under the same conditions in January and early/mid February, the snow would have hung around, no drip, drip, drip with the freeze lasting all day, more snow settling on top of the older stuff and true mid winter scenes without the bald patches.

There can be huge quantities of snowfall in March and April of course even in the south if conditions are spot on, all good fun to see, I remember the west country getting a dumping when I was still at school, many years ago, but it was gone almost as quickly as it arrived.

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48 minutes ago, snowray said:

 

 

After the 12th day of Christmas and The Ephifany, 6th Jan, days get noticeably longer, I hate to bring this up every year but the clock is ticking for winter, the mid winter period being from now to the second week of February. Having said all this I'm still hopeful for a late January or early February freeze, and it can snow in the UK any time til May of course particularly in Scotland although it does not hang around very long after February. keeping my fingers very crossed for this SSW to finally do something and we can switch our attention back to the shorter term models. :oldrolleyes:

I wouldn’t get that concerned so soon after the shortest day. For me it’s really not until mid Feb that the solar input overtakes the other factors that favour lasting snowfall.

We were fortunate that the cold was so deep in feb and march last year that it even stuck around as long as it did, and that skies were cloudy most of the ti,e during the easterly.

A bit like high summer, I can just about relax as long as we get a decent between January 20th and February 10th. Only after then will the clock really be ticking.

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Think I will avoid the other thread from now.  It's not nice to know that members have the right to call you a troll simply for pointing out that all projected cold spells do not always actually end up in cold spells, in response to their suggestion that all cold spells have their blips on the countdown to certain delivery!  I can quite understand why even renowned posters of old not longer care to contribute to it.

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14 minutes ago, MP-R said:

I wouldn’t get that concerned so soon after the shortest day. For me it’s really not until mid Feb that the solar input overtakes the other factors that favour lasting snowfall.

We were fortunate that the cold was so deep in feb and march last year that it even stuck around as long as it did, and that skies were cloudy most of the ti,e during the easterly.

A bit like high summer, I can just about relax as long as we get a decent between January 20th and February 10th. Only after then will the clock really be ticking.

It's just me though, I just start to panic a bit at this time of the year when I don't see any concrete building blocks mid term and FI charts chopping and changing about all the time. Only three weeks of January left remember and the thought of late snowfall and that drip, drip, drip sound starts to come into my head. It's also my location here thats a bit naff, near the Thames and very much a London climate, usually miss the really heavy snowfalls, when people around me are reporting 7/8 inches, I have 2 or 3 inches. I'm referring to snowfall yh.😨😀

 

Anyway, the ensembles are looking way more positive so hopefully we will see something half decent coming more into the reliable time frame before too long.

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53 minutes ago, snowray said:

I know full well that it can snow in March, I said that, but the sun was strong and it was a case of drip. drip, drip during daylight hours, I really hate that. Under the same conditions in January and early/mid February, the snow would have hung around, no drip, drip, drip with the freeze lasting all day, more snow settling on top of the older stuff and true mid winter scenes without the bald patches.

There can be huge quantities of snowfall in March and April of course even in the south if conditions are spot on, all good fun to see, I remember the west country getting a dumping when I was still at school, many years ago, but it was gone almost as quickly as it arrived.

When the beast arrived here I was too busy watching the icicles grow to notice any drip 😉 It was blinking cold here and the snow hung around for days, helped in part that it drifted so high but some drifts lasted nigh on two weeks.

On another note....reckon I'm definitely going senile, having spent the day up a ladder pruning an immense Wisteria and getting absolutely frozen for my troubles, I really cannot fathom why on earth I'd want it to get even colder. I work outside for goodness sakes, why oh why am I craving snow and ice? Senile or bonkers, it's certainly a long way from sanity.

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Posted (edited)
35 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

Think I will avoid the other thread from now.  It's not nice to know that members have the right to call you a troll simply for pointing out that all projected cold spells do not always actually end up in cold spells, in response to their suggestion that all cold spells have their blips on the countdown to certain delivery!  I can quite understand why even renowned posters of old not longer care to contribute to it.

Indeed the stick IDO and Knocker get for a realistic view of the models rather than the soothsayers praying on the majority's confirmation bias - plus the fact this gets left unchecked - is pretty poor tbh - just becomes an echo chamber - not a forum 'debating' and 'discussing' the models

Edited by JoeShmoe

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4 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

Didn't mean it that way, W. But with the FV3 still stuck on yesterday's 06Z, there are clearly issues there somewhere...

It's obviously getting in on the act of 'fake news'.

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3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Interesting news coming out this afternoon a new model is launching later this year

IBM Introducing the World’s Highest-Resolution Global Weather Forecasting Model
 

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/IBM-Introducing-Worlds-Highest-Resolution-Global-Weather-Forecasting-Model

Predicting thunderstorms  ..best of luck with that IBM.🤣

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Posted (edited)
24 minutes ago, jethro said:

When the beast arrived here I was too busy watching the icicles grow to notice any drip 😉 It was blinking cold here and the snow hung around for days, helped in part that it drifted so high but some drifts lasted nigh on two weeks.

On another note....reckon I'm definitely going senile, having spent the day up a ladder pruning an immense Wisteria and getting absolutely frozen for my troubles, I really cannot fathom why on earth I'd want it to get even colder. I work outside for goodness sakes, why oh why am I craving snow and ice? Senile or bonkers, it's certainly a long way from sanity.

Ahh yes indeed if I'd got a foot of snow and some big drifts instead of a couple of inches I guess I would not be complaining about snow in March or even April. It's all down to location at the end of the day.😁

Edited by snowray

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2 minutes ago, Easton Luna Boys said:

I don't think this place would be able to handle hourly updates. 4 times a day is bad enough as it is. 

 

A pub run every hour ! Gracious me 🍻 

pray for Netweathers Servers 🙏🏻 

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15 minutes ago, JoeShmoe said:

Indeed the stick IDO and Knocker get for a realistic view of the models rather than the soothsayers praying on the majority's confirmation bias - plus the fact this gets left unchecked - is pretty poor tbh - just becomes an echo chamber - not a forum 'debating' and 'discussing' the models

Can't argue with that, Joe...It was the 'killer fact', this is the Hunt for Cold thread that made me laugh...

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, snowray said:

All very true, the SSW event has completely dominated the conversation, and will undoubtedly continue to do so. I personally would love to see snowfall this winter that hangs around a while, multiple snow events even better, but I'm ready and looking forward for spring by March, late February in fact. The problem is that if the SSW has not effected our climate/trop in a way that reflects cold and snow by the first week of February, many on here will still be going about its likely effects on our weather in late February and March, and on it goes.

 

After the 12th day of Christmas and The Ephifany, 6th Jan, days get noticeably longer, I hate to bring this up every year but the clock is ticking for winter, the mid winter period being from now to the second week of February. Having said all this I'm still hopeful for a late January or early February freeze, and it can snow in the UK any time til May of course particularly in Scotland although it does not hang around very long after February. keeping my fingers very crossed for this SSW to finally do something and we can switch our attention back to the shorter term models. :oldrolleyes:

Agreed, being as mentioned im a summer person but I know if we were on the 9th of July and hadn't been way up in the high twenties by now with nothing in the offing in the models I'd be getting proper worried. Lets face it, events like the SSW earlier last year are rare. 4-6inches of snow along the south coast is a once every 10yrs event so certainly have no expectation of it happening again this year. 

Edited by Alderc

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Just now, Ed Stone said:

Can't argue with that, Joe...It was the 'killer fact', this is the Hunt for Cold thread that made me laugh...

This is the hunt for cold thread "at any cost", including geese, seaweed and the good old crystal ball. Oh and the occasional visiting goat.😅

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4 minutes ago, snowray said:

Ahh yes indeed if I'd got a foot of snow and some big drifts instead of a couple of inches I guess I would not be complaining about snow in March or even April. It's all down to location at the end of the day.😁

Location definitely helps, I live in the mild and soggy South West but when it comes to snow I'm helped immensely by living 600ft up in the Mendip Hills, the Somerset levels didn't get anywhere near that amount of snow. I have known a foot of snow fall at the beginning of April but that was all gone in a couple of days, caused carnage though. Personally will never forget it as I was moving house that day, try getting huge removal lorries down country lanes on the Mendip Hills with a foot of snow on the ground, it really, really doesn't work well!

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5 minutes ago, Raythan said:

A pub run every hour ! Gracious me 🍻 

pray for Netweathers Servers 🙏🏻 

I pray for Northwestsnow, how is he going to check the charts in work on the hour every hour without getting the sack. 😉

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7 minutes ago, jethro said:

Location definitely helps, I live in the mild and soggy South West but when it comes to snow I'm helped immensely by living 600ft up in the Mendip Hills, the Somerset levels didn't get anywhere near that amount of snow. I have known a foot of snow fall at the beginning of April but that was all gone in a couple of days, caused carnage though. Personally will never forget it as I was moving house that day, try getting huge removal lorries down country lanes on the Mendip Hills with a foot of snow on the ground, it really, really doesn't work well!

I have been saying for a while that I need to follow Steve M's example and move up a hill somewhere.🤣

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21 minutes ago, Raythan said:

A pub run every hour ! Gracious me 🍻 

pray for Netweathers Servers 🙏🏻 

It wont go out far if its every hour.

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7 minutes ago, snowray said:

I have been saying for a while that I need to follow Steve M's example and move up a hill somewhere.🤣

Makes a big difference. If it wasn't for the fact my family are intent on staying around here, I'd be on top of a big hill somewhere in Swaledale. My aim in the next year or two is to move to the Mendip Plateau, it's about 250ft higher than here, every little helps 🙂 

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50 minutes ago, snowray said:

It's just me though, I just start to panic a bit at this time of the year when I don't see any concrete building blocks mid term and FI charts chopping and changing about all the time. Only three weeks of January left remember and the thought of late snowfall and that drip, drip, drip sound starts to come into my head. It's also my location here thats a bit naff, near the Thames and very much a London climate, usually miss the really heavy snowfalls, when people around me are reporting 7/8 inches, I have 2 or 3 inches. I'm referring to snowfall yh.😨😀

 

Anyway, the ensembles are looking way more positive so hopefully we will see something half decent coming more into the reliable time frame before too long.

Likewise! Yes its easy to get carried away with the charts beyond day 10, reliability is the issue! No concrete building blocks appearing yet... as you say

Looking like February could be interesting so long as the pesky Atlantic takes a chill pill! Not getting too excited about the rest of January now most signals point towards a mobile and zonal weather pattern tbh, a transition period for February we hope!! 

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4 minutes ago, Matty88 said:

Likewise! Yes its easy to get carried away with the charts beyond day 10, reliability is the issue! No concrete building blocks appearing yet... as you say

Looking like February could be interesting so long as the pesky Atlantic takes a chill pill! Not getting too excited about the rest of January now most signals point towards a mobile and zonal weather pattern tbh, a transition period for February we hope!! 

Mid to late January may still surprise us Matty, never know our luck.

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34 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Can't argue with that, Joe...It was the 'killer fact', this is the Hunt for Cold thread that made me laugh...

It's not called that now but it appears the hunt rules have remained in place.  I wouldn't mind but I'm a huge cheerleader for cold, but one made wiser by my own experiences of rushing headlong into the excitement of "it's on its way" over the years 

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If only I could bring back some of this snow and dump it on the uk

20190109_123332.jpg

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I just read metoffice's long term forecast. They say eventhough  it's going to turn notably colder south won't get any snow, in fact we will get mild and wet weather time to time :( I hate winters here, nothing happens apart from rain and wind :( (I am writing from Brighton)

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Good FI again on the gfs 12z . As @northwestsnow says wedges make sledges. 

A48D4DE5-C163-4773-82A9-393C05CD8A6E.png

43900B5C-83BC-43C5-8802-090FD903A66C.png

8522F6D2-D006-4E25-899E-6C12B683B66C.png

A472FE62-0ED2-420C-8270-9E64B901237A.png

 

 

 

 

 

 

Even my location gets in on the fun there.  Pity it’s not T24......

Edited by Don

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The met office 10 day trend looks interesting 🙂 

 

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