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Model banter returns

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

Well, we'll certainly look forward to that.

No need to be a smarty pants . 🤪 . Looking forward to your future analysis 😏

Edited by ICE COLD

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39 minutes ago, Lauren said:

This really. Whatever we did, someone wouldn't be happy. We're trying to provide the reasonable middle ground.

As a new mod, I had absolutely NO idea of the workings of a forum. The number of reports, pms, whinges, people wanting different things etc etc. It's absolutely non stop sometimes even with all hands on deck.

That said, I love this forum. I've been here for years and I've learnt loads and I think we're all, for the most part, a good bunch. We want to make as many of you as happy as possible. So when we ask you to kindly do things, it's for the betterment of experience, honest. 🙂

I'd hate to think what it'll be like if things really pick up over the next week or two. 😂

But seriously when people all get on it's a great place to share the common interest we all have, even more so when there's interesting weather going on which has been in short supply lately. 

And on a model related note. Seems the 18z looks a bit like this.

temp.thumb.jpg.6e0ab8ca264a33863446e0e1ef767ce6.jpg

 

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51 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

Write off the GFS?....

We see the classic 'angel fish' 2 wave pattern taking shape here- 

GFS(P) (last available run)

gfsnh-0-324.thumb.png.5c051822b0c415ef63c207f685aca56f.png

GFS op -

gfsnh-0-384-7.thumb.png.b796f65b8f7684bc7710f06fb15e9dcd.png

And.... December 1962 -

archivesnh-1962-12-27-0-0.thumb.png.3abe3c195b0d59123577f1d81f29aa42.png

If my land rover sees this, there'll be a puddle of engine wee in the morning...

 

 

Nah the wee will be frozen.

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12 hours ago, More Snow said:

??????????? hints of lemon? cow pats lay thick??  

Lemon shaped P V I felt and I do have cow pats in my valley

But interesting to note I zygote on sky news mentioned much colder spell of weather towards end of January into Feb so all still good

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Oh look, its all at day 10 again ..

Groundhog day in the cold thread ...

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I just can't get excited at the moment. GEFS mean stuck at -5 for Central Europe which means no winter down here. At least mountains are safe so there's that. Little bit frustrating that we are stuck in no man's land in the middle of the winter.

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Good old metcheck - never lets u down. First snow nailed on for my neck of the woods on the 19th 

0D4B4FFD-ACB6-4173-97EC-14962396E93F.thumb.jpeg.d22f886b3350aa56bc8690a76ec44561.jpeg

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Anyone else missing the less formal Hunt for Cold thread? 😔

It totally get how annoying it must be for Mods to deal with the "kids" when they start sniping/arguing BUT I just wish everything could be back in one place. Surely tweets and Meto/other forecasters mentioned are all still forecasting related which is basically what we're all trying to do and decifer!!

Plus, when things get exciting (crumbs it doesn't happen often!) I like some light-hearted jokes and excitement, the odd stupid meme picture and hilarious comments!

I would understand the separation of such things if all threads stayed active and busy but they don't! I think this was also proven when the Hunt for Cold was created to step away from the formality of the traditional MOD thread because the latter died a death!

I don't have all the answers and I'm honestly not having a go but just putting it out there 🙂 x

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1 hour ago, JoeShmoe said:

Oh look, its all at day 10 again ..

Groundhog day in the cold thread ...

try looking at the bigger picture not just the operationals from the models😏as most people appear to do

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Good morning Gang ,sausage sandwiches with brown sauce , a coffee then up the wood shed to prepare for hopefully the arrival of winter later next week .we have Grit bins in several places in our village , all up till now still have last years leftovers in them but hey Bingo this morning the Lads have been out topping them up . Iwent out and spoke to the gang filling them up and they told me that their bosses had been informed of wintry weather arriving in about a weeks time ,they also said that all the gritting lorries were being checked over at the yard in preparation .i am almost opposite the yard and the several vehicles have been moved this morning ,and yes they are checking them over .On with the charts ,nothing really very wintry showing yet but looks like some very deep and active lows will start to track south east next week , and i am expecting the main charts soon to start to show some good winter interest .this is certainly a slow burner , take care all and catch you all up soon ,Stellas all round , cheers ..

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BTW, this is in Cyprus - one of the warmest islands in the Med!! This isn’t at the top neither. Must be the UKs turn soon.

0829BC97-98CA-4A9C-9BD3-E43EB07ED556.jpeg

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Well Well Well....models didnt forecast this....its SNOWING in Stoke!!!

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12 minutes ago, Paul Faulkner said:

Well Well Well....models didnt forecast this....its SNOWING in Stoke!!!

Some of us were mentioning snow, for today, a week or so back. So the GFS isn't always wrong?

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Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, Paul Faulkner said:

Well Well Well....models didnt forecast this....its SNOWING in Stoke!!!

I there is some snaw kicking aboot the day 👍

1546152413_ScreenShot2019-01-09at12_25_41.thumb.png.b70b3747395c8aee797ed7fdf244c264.png 

Edited by ghoneym
slang

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3 hours ago, JoeShmoe said:

Oh look, its all at day 10 again ..

Groundhog day in the cold thread ...

Have to agree even met office keep pushing back. Far to many misinterpretation of the charts too with one saying looks amazing yet the same chart another saying looks dreadful. But end end of the day fi is just that FANTASY. Anything can happen yet though and I'm not ruling anything out till end of Feb. 

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Its this high pressure to the Sw of us now thats delaying the uk winter. 

And it looks like going nowhere fast

If its still there at the end of this month 

Im going to put my snow shovel away 

And look forward to a warmer than average spring :drunk-emoji:

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9 minutes ago, sorepaw1 said:

Its this high pressure to the Sw of us now thats delaying the uk winter. 

And it looks like going nowhere fast

If its still there at the end of this month 

Im going to put my snow shovel away 

And look forward to a warmer than average spring :drunk-emoji:

Agree with you. But usually what happens is that we get the super duper wintry weather turn up outside of winter proper like last year, when most people are looking forward to spring. Why on earth is it so difficult to get decent snowfall in December/January in this country these days? More chance of it snowing in November or April!:olddoh:

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Fantastic update from the MO

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4 hours ago, cobbett said:

Good old metcheck - never lets u down. First snow nailed on for my neck of the woods on the 19th 

0D4B4FFD-ACB6-4173-97EC-14962396E93F.thumb.jpeg.d22f886b3350aa56bc8690a76ec44561.jpeg

With metcheck I think you've more chance of nailing a jelly to the wall than that verifying! 😂 

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On 07/01/2019 at 21:59, snowray said:

It was more like the cold hard ramping thread, and if your not ramping up cold hard enough, or god forbid mention the M word; You are exterminated! 🗡️🔫☠️🤣

And lets be fair its been mild pretty much all winter so far. I only defrosted by for the first time a couple of days ago. 

Its all good and well looking at the big picture, however that's the same big picture we know even less about than the conditions at the surface, to be honest I'm not a cold weather fan, I'd rather it be 35C every day of the year however the odd bit of snow doesn't go a miss. That said we've had 8weeks of impending death by SSW bliazzards forecasting and I'm sick of it one event linked to a SSW last Feb has driven everyone crazy. 

Lets look at the models and concentrate on the piece most have a better understanding on and have a much higher set of verification stats - oh wait look nothing cold and snowy in the next 7-10days.......

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18 minutes ago, Alderc said:

And lets be fair its been mild pretty much all winter so far. I only defrosted by for the first time a couple of days ago. 

Its all good and well looking at the big picture, however that's the same big picture we know even less about than the conditions at the surface, to be honest I'm not a cold weather fan, I'd rather it be 35C every day of the year however the odd bit of snow doesn't go a miss. That said we've had 8weeks of impending death by SSW bliazzards forecasting and I'm sick of it one event linked to a SSW last Feb has driven everyone crazy. 

Lets look at the models and concentrate on the piece most have a better understanding on and have a much higher set of verification stats - oh wait look nothing cold and snowy in the next 7-10days.......

All very true, the SSW event has completely dominated the conversation, and will undoubtedly continue to do so. I personally would love to see snowfall this winter that hangs around a while, multiple snow events even better, but I'm ready and looking forward for spring by March, late February in fact. The problem is that if the SSW has not effected our climate/trop in a way that reflects cold and snow by the first week of February, many on here will still be going about its likely effects on our weather in late February and March, and on it goes.

 

After the 12th day of Christmas and The Ephifany, 6th Jan, days get noticeably longer, I hate to bring this up every year but the clock is ticking for winter, the mid winter period being from now to the second week of February. Having said all this I'm still hopeful for a late January or early February freeze, and it can snow in the UK any time til May of course particularly in Scotland although it does not hang around very long after February. keeping my fingers very crossed for this SSW to finally do something and we can switch our attention back to the shorter term models. :oldrolleyes:

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11 minutes ago, snowray said:

All very true, the SSW event has completely dominated the conversation, and will undoubtedly continue to do so. I personally would love to see snowfall this winter that hangs around a while, multiple snow events even better, but I'm ready and looking forward for spring by March, late February in fact. The problem is that if the SSW has not effected our climate/trop in a way that reflects cold and snow by the first week of February, many on here will still be going about its likely effects on our weather in late February and March, and on it goes.

 

After the 12th day of Christmas and The Ephifany, 6th Jan, days get noticeably longer, I hate to bring this up every year but the clock is ticking for winter, the mid winter period being from now to the second week of February. Having said all this I'm still hopeful for a late January or early February freeze, and it can snow in the UK any time til May of course particularly in Scotland although it does not hang around very long after February. keeping my fingers very crossed for this SSW to finally do something and we can switch our attention back to the shorter term models. :oldrolleyes:

I think we can count the entire month of Feb and first few days of March as the time available for cold/snow. 

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5 minutes ago, danm said:

I think we can count the entire month of Feb and first few days of March as the time available for cold/snow. 

Don't start!:olddoh:🤣

 

 

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1 minute ago, snowray said:

Don't start!:olddoh:🤣

 

 

Did the beast last year not convince you of that fact? Agree, it takes something very special to deliver in March, but it can happen. 

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To me having followed models on here and TWO since the 90's its quite a simple method i follow - if there is deep cold and energy gradients in Greenland you can usually forget widespread snowfall (maybe a transient northerly but that effects about 5% of the country). And until that area is shown as clear of energy (i.e. shortwaves which dont usually materialize until T-144 ) i dont buy in - as yet havent seen any model showing these so far but will keep checking in every few days ..

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