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7 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

I must say I'm a bit miffed (to say the least) about John Holmes' comments about Ian Currie, on the Model thread just now. Ian has been an "Official" Met Office Observer for many years and has written many books on Meteorology. He has also appeared on Cable TV, giving forecasts. Ian has also written many weather columns, for local newspapers and a gardening magazine. He has also appeared on Channel 4 and Radio 4, talking about Frost Fairs on the River Thames.

Very harsh to suggest, "a bit like another bloke off the TV"!! :nonono:

Wanted to post this in here or PM John, as it's a moan plus I have sent John a very extensive PM, in the last few days.

Regards,

Tom. :hi:

Agree 100%.. but posting in the new thread will only lead to your post being deleted.. maybe John needs to remember that he is no longer an official weather man and has no right to diss others for doing a bloody good job while trying to understand all the stuff John himself says he has almost no knowledge of.

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Posted (edited)

The holding pattern? ET going home? image.thumb.png.636db2fe105cb373615b1827db05c1fb.png  

 

 

Edited by Ed Stone

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Have to say this new forum split is much better - hopefully can be extended to the one liner 'heres the UKMO at 144' or 'GFS might give a snowflake in kent at 168' type posts - not all of us can (or want) to watch each model run frame by frame and be able to go to a single forum that has some overarching, erudite commentary on the entirety of the runs

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2 hours ago, TomSE12 said:

I must say I'm a bit miffed (to say the least) about John Holmes' comments about Ian Currie, on the Model thread just now. Ian has been an "Official" Met Office Observer for many years and has written many books on Meteorology. He has also appeared on Cable TV, giving forecasts. Ian has also written many weather columns, for local newspapers and a gardening magazine. He has also appeared on Channel 4 and Radio 4, talking about Frost Fairs on the River Thames.

Very harsh to suggest, "a bit like another bloke off the TV"!! :nonono:

Wanted to post this in here or PM John, as it's a moan plus I have sent John a very extensive PM, in the last few days.

Regards,

Tom. :hi:

Indeed Tom I have had the pleasure of co/ writing a weather book with Ian Currie and contributing to his weathereye magazine. I have known him as a friend for more than 20 years. Something that John Holmes clearly hasn,t and if he had he would not making disparaging remarks about a true man of weather and a very competent forecaster and observer. 

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did he co write that book with john ketterly about cold weather in u.k. or something,can’t remember the name ,but was a fantastic read 

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33 minutes ago, coldie said:

Here is the YouTube link 🙂 

 

My goodness it's January the 8th of January...

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Posted (edited)

ooohhhh - I feel so more at home on a banter thread than trying to understand the model thread - I shall still look at the pretty pictures and try and work out what they mean lol

Edited by V for Very Cold
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No point having a hunt for cold if there's not going to be any cold.

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Posted (edited)

 

looks like  the cold is coming after watching that live chat on meto utube channel,the SSW has already taken place just waiting for the effects to be felt at the surface 

 

Edited by SLEETY
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4 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

 

looks like  the cold is coming after watching that live chat on meto utube channel,the SSW has already taken place just waiting for the effects to be felt at the surface 

 

Sounds promising sleety although i have not seen it.

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5 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

About as clear as their 30 day outlooks...possibly colder periods increase but possible mild interludes with no idea if they'll be any similarites to end of Feb 2018 the last SSW which to be honest is fair enough.

Yes a liitle vague       but the one downside to the show was  he didnt say if it would snow in Dudley  in 2 weeks time.  Pah experts. 

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Perhaps they'll have another more interesting one a few days before the cold arrives detailing where the biggest snowdrifts are likely lol

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49 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Funny, because the Met Office outlooks have actually brought the colder conditions forward....

No they havn't.

Still last week of Jan which is 25th onwards.

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

No they havn't.

Still last week of Jan which is 25th onwards.

First mention is in the 2 week ahead forecast. Where as before it was only in the extended outlook. The extended outlook also no longer says conditions will be mild at the beginning of that period.

Edited by MattStoke
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2 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

No they havn't.

Still last week of Jan which is 25th onwards.

Without derailing the thread   take a look at the update again. it says later period upto the 21st.   

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2 hours ago, ArHu3 said:

Just something funny from a Dutch newspaper from today 

 

"meteorologists surprised: weather model shows onset of cold winter weather" 

 

How come they are surprised, we've all been anticipating the cold since the polar vortex split😎

 

https://www.ad.nl/binnenland/meteorologen-verrast-weermodel-toont-intrede-winterkou~a0175665/

They're surprised because they'd been reading the Hunt for cold thread three days ago!

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22 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

Greece doing well again it seems

 

Don't read!

 

Snow closes schools in Athens. -23c recorded in Greece 😄 

 

https://www.rte.ie/news/newslens/2019/0108/1022016-greece-snow-cold/

Better make the most of it because the worms about to turn very soon(i hope)!

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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Better make the most of it because the worms about to turn very soon(i hope)!

Its no worm... more like a great big snake thats just about to bite, BRING ME MY SNAW

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Has the FV3 died, or has Donald J. Trump not pulled his finger out from his butt yet?🍑

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24 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

Greece doing well again it seems

 

Don't read!

 

Snow closes schools in Athens. -23c recorded in Greece 😄 

 

https://www.rte.ie/news/newslens/2019/0108/1022016-greece-snow-cold/

Authorities in Athens are closing schools even with 2cm snow and it's ridiculous imo. Athens is also surrounded by mountains so there are places 400m+ that have regularly a decent amount of snow. In North Greece where I'm from, snow amount right now is huge. Hometown is buried under almost 50cm of snow but that's quite usual there every winter. Ski resorts are also properly buried and it's going to get even better for them from tomorrow. Let's hope things will change here in UK after the 20th of this month and we will finally get our share. 

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11 minutes ago, More Snow said:

Its no worm... more like a great big snake thats just about to bite, BRING ME MY SNAW

h33QfDykQdV5.thumb.png.adb69c773d231d5d04e16299f9320c62.pngtempresult_uha2.thumb.gif.dfc4dc5e09e9af2ef513a5fd5d256ce3.giftempresult_ten3.thumb.gif.1006062ed41a93332858365305e9e179.giftempresult_hla8.thumb.gif.1259c61898709c0ba7cdc272f5b205e6.gifgensnh-17-1-384.thumb.png.4ee7fed97aefeb8c83cd89c7aef3d7b2.pngtempresult_xxc8.thumb.gif.866e9120cbbf035f0d340dd7d9170cf2.gif  ThunderousGranularDiplodocus-small.gif

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7 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

h33QfDykQdV5.thumb.png.adb69c773d231d5d04e16299f9320c62.pngtempresult_uha2.thumb.gif.dfc4dc5e09e9af2ef513a5fd5d256ce3.giftempresult_ten3.thumb.gif.1006062ed41a93332858365305e9e179.giftempresult_hla8.thumb.gif.1259c61898709c0ba7cdc272f5b205e6.gifgensnh-17-1-384.thumb.png.4ee7fed97aefeb8c83cd89c7aef3d7b2.pngtempresult_xxc8.thumb.gif.866e9120cbbf035f0d340dd7d9170cf2.gif  ThunderousGranularDiplodocus-small.gif

Oh my god we are gonna run out of bread and milk...lol...

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Posted (edited)

Current 12z GFS gradually turns into a very cold pattern with a direct northerly jet from near the pole to the UK by 24th.

Eventually this seems bound to verify as GFS has had the habit in the past of false starts before actual events (and we've seen this sort of thing several times in the past few weeks, only to be pushed back in time). 

This is a list of all ten-day cold spells (all days 0.0 CET or lower) in the records since daily reports began in 1772. I have arranged it so that visually you can see where in the winter season these spells occur. I added three later spells in March that were not quite cold enough to make the list but only because of higher solar angle, they were very cold intervals for that late. Mid-November 1929 was very cold, but the spell lasted six days. Otherwise I think this list catches most if not all of the memorable cold spells in that period. Where you see two in the same winter (e.g. 1963) it was probably perceived to be one unbroken cold spell but a few days in between warmed to some value slightly in excess of the freezing point. 

This might help you select a good analogue to consider in terms of timing and duration of possible cold later this month and hopefully on into February. 

 

Days _ Duration of Days 0.0 or lower ________________ Coldest ____ Average

______[] __DECEMBER__ [] __JANUARY__ [] _FEBRUARY_ [] __MARCH______

32 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...  27 Dec 1813 - 27 Jan 1814 ............. -- 6.7 ...... -- 3.2

26 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 7 Jan - 1 Feb 1776 ....................-- 7.5 ...... -- 3.0

22 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... . 5 - 26 Feb 1947..-- 6.7 .... -- 2.5 ****

20 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...  8 - 27 Jan 1881 ......................... -- 8.1 ...... -- 4.6

20 ... ... ..(+12d see below) .. 7 - 26 Jan 1963 .......................... --8.4 ...... -- 3.6 ***

18 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .. 6 - 23 Feb 1855 ... -- 7.5 .... -- 3.7

18 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 9 - 26 Jan 1823 ........................ -- 8.9 ...... -- 3.0

18 ... ... ... ... ... 9 - 26 Dec 1890 ................................................ -- 6.8 ...... -- 2.1

17 ... (very cold 31 Dec - 7 Jan).10-26 Jan 1795 ....................... -- 8.9 ...... -- 4.0

15 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 21 Dec 1870 - 4 Jan 1871 ......................... -- 6.9 ...... -- 3.6

15... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 10-24 Jan 1940 ...(+11d later) ..... -- 7.1 ...... -- 3.3

15 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .. 24 Dec 1892 - 7 Jan 1893 ...................... -- 5.0 ...... -- 3.3

15 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 18 Jan - 1 Feb 1784 ........... -- 3.7 ...... -- 2.1

14 ... ... ... ... ...(+10d earlier) . 8 - 21 Jan 1838 .......................... -- 11.9 ...... -- 5.1

14 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 5-18 Feb 1895 .... -- 8.3 ...... -- 4.8**

14 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...  3-16 Jan 1820 .................................... -- 8.5 ...... -- 3.6

14 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 21 Jan - 3 Feb 1780 ........ -- 3.6 ...... -- 1.0

13 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 26 Jan - 7 Feb 1954 ..... -- 5.0 ...... -- 2.5

13 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 17 - 29 Dec 1860 .......................................... -- 3.7 ...... -- 2.1^

13 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 6-18 Feb 1986 ....... -- 4.6 ...... -- 1.6

13 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 14 - 26 Feb 1956 .. -- 3.2 .... -- 1.6

13 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 29 Dec - 10 Jan 1811 .......................... -- 3.6 ...... -- 1.5

12 ...... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 6-17 Jan 1987 ............................... -- 7.7 ...... -- 2.6

12 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 23 Dec 1962 - 3 Jan 1963 .(plus 20d ^^)... -- 3.6 ...... -- 2.2 ***

12 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 18 - 29 Jan 1880 ........................ -- 4.3 ...... -- 2.1

12 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 3 - 14 Feb 1991 .......... -- 4.7 ...... -- 1.9

12 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .. 25 Dec 1853 - 5 Jan 1854 ....................... -- 5.0 ...... -- 1.8

12 ... ... ... 30 Nov - 11 Dec 1796 ......................................................... -- 4.7 ...... -- 1.8

12 ......... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 17 - 28 Feb 1955 .. -- 3.3 ... -- 1.7

11 ...... ... ... ... ... ... ... .17 - 27 Dec 2010 ............................................. -- 7.0 ...... -- 3.9

11 ...... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 11 - 21 Jan 1867 ................................ -- 5.0 ...... -- 2.9

11 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 1 - 11 Feb 1917 ................. -- 7.2 ...... -- 2.8 *

11 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 9 - 19 Feb 1985 ..... -- 4.1 ...... -- 2.7

11 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 2-12 Jan 1879 ....................................... -- 4.8 ...... -- 2.3

11 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 6-16 Jan 1850 ................................ -- 2.8 ...... -- 1.4

11 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 25 Dec 1820 - 4 Jan 1821 .............................. -- 3.3 ...... -- 1.3

11 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 11 - 21 Feb 1853 . -- 3.2 ...... -- 1.2

11 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...(+15d earlier ^^) . 9 - 19 Feb 1940 .... --2.5 ....... --1.1

10 ...... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 6-15 Jan 1982 ................................... --7.6 ...... -- 4.0

10 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 8 - 17 Jan 1826 .................................-- 6.9 ..... -- 3.7

10 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 20 - 29 Jan 1945 ............... -- 7.6 ...... -- 3.5

10 ... ... ... ... 5 - 14 Dec 1844 ................ ....................................................-- 5.5 ...... -- 2.7 ... see below Mar 1845

10 ... ... ... ... ... 8 - 17 Dec 1878 ................................................................. -- 5.3 ...... -- 2.9^^

10 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 16 - 25 Jan 1829 .................... -- 4.8 ...... -- 2.8

10 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .. 14 - 23 Jan 1809 ..................... -- 5.1 ...... -- 2.4

10 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 24 Dec 1836 - 2 Jan 1837 ...................................... -- 3.3 ...... -- 1.3

10 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...23 Dec 1837 - 1 Jan 1838 ..(+14d later) .................. -- 2.7 ...... -- 1.4

10 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 21 - 30 Jan 1917 .(1-11 Feb^) . -- 1.8 ... -- 1.1 *

__________________________________________________

^ Most of the period 1-16 Jan 1861 was also subzero, the 31-day period 17 Dec 1860 to 16 Jan 1861 averaged -1.3 C.

^^ This cold spell extended from 7 to 26 Dec, 20 days in which the mean CET was --2.4 C. The interval 20-25 Dec was --3.7 C.

* Except for +0.3 on 31 Jan 1917, a 22 day spell avg --1.8 C lasting 21 Jan to 11 Feb.

** A longer spell of 24 days with +0.4 as warmest, 26 Jan - 18 Feb 1895, avg --3.7 C.

*** Although there were only two spells in winter 1962-63 that qualified for this list, note that the period of 35 days that includes the two, 23 Dec to 26 Jan, averaged -2.7 C and 70 days 22 Dec to 2 March averaged -- 1.5 C.

**** The 45-day period 23 Jan to 8 Mar 1947 averaged --1.9 C.

<<>> RECENT NEAR MISSES & EXPANSION OF 1986 FROM LIST <<>>

25 Nov to 4 Dec 2010 averaged -- 1.7 C and 25 Nov to 8 Dec averaged -- 1.7 C but these periods failed by a slight margin to make the list (25 Nov was +0.3 and 5 Dec was +0.4).

The 26-day period from 6 Feb to 3 Mar 1986 averaged -- 1.2 C.

The 15-day period from 5 to 19 Jan 1985 averaged --1.7 C. (11th not subzero so it has no ten-day interval)

1 to 10 Jan 2010 averaged --1.9 C but failed to make the list because 2 Jan was +0.3 C.

16 to 25 Jan 2013 averaged --0.9 C but failed to make the list because 24 Jan was +0.7 C.

8-26 Dec 1981 averaged -- 2.3 C.

___________________________________

honourable mention should be given to 11-20 March 1845, there were two days in that 10-day interval slightly above zero but the average so late in the season was --1.7 C and contains the coldest March day (-6.5 on 13th). Also, in terms of a sustained cold anomaly, 21 March to 1st April 2013 (12 days) had a mean of +1.2 C. 1785 was even colder at the same time of year, 13 days from 22 March to 3 April had an average of +0.8 C. In terms of early winter season sustained cold, the interval 11-16 Nov 1919 averaged --0.3 C. 

________________________________

ANALYSIS of starting dates for 10-day or longer cold spells

Of all the 51 spells (in 47 winters, roughly 19% of the years surveyed) including the later ones in March, but excluding those that just missed during the winter season, this is the frequency count for starting dates:

xx Nov to 10 Dec __ 4

11 to 20 Dec ______ 2

21 to 31 Dec ______ 9

01 to 10 Jan ______13

11 to 20 Jan ______ 6

21 to 31 Jan ______ 3

01 to 10 Feb ______ 8

11 to 20 Feb ______ 3

21 Feb or later ____ 3

For whatever reason, there is a period from 21st January to start of February when these spells are less likely to commence. A second cluster then emerges around first week of February often lasting longer than 10 days. We have now reached the point in the winter when half of these significant cold spells had begun. The three-quarters point is around 8 February. Not that length is the only important point when comparing cold spells, last winter's late bloomer lasted about five days but "did the business" for snowfall and set a daily record on the 1st of March. Not all of the above set daily records, about two-thirds did (and sometimes quite a few, for example 1776 set five in a row). You will find examples of winters with a cold spell listed and some other memorable cold or snow outside that interval, for example, in Dec 1796 a later but shorter cold spell produced the coldest December day. February's coldest day in 1816 was embedded in a seven-day subzero stretch which was about a week after an earlier five day interval at end of January. The spell listed for 1956 is not the most memorable cold of that month, that happened in the first few days of February. But that spell only ran to five days.

Will this winter join the list? If so, likely to be 23 January or so before it begins. The 1947 subzero cold spell began on 24th, the interval to 2nd averaged -1.7 but fell one day short of this list (and by 0.1 C on 23rd). Two days of 0.7 separated that from the main cold spell shown in the table and it then stayed very cold to about the 10th of March. 

 

Edited by Roger J Smith
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