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Good grief I don’t look in this thread for 1 hour and apparently the world is ending. Some of you need to get a grip, honestly. How often has either ECMWF-GFS-or UK Met done something simila

Looks like someone has been out celebrating last night snow with a bottle of my favourite Spanish Cava !

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7 minutes ago, Disco_Stu said:

Rules for Acceptable Posts in the Model Thread

1.Include charts that may/may not/no clue if theyll verify.

2.Describe in infinite detail why charts will verify in deep cold/heavy snow fall for the entire UK.

3.Describe charts as 'BOOM'.

4.For 1,2 and 3, use whichever model will please readers of the model thread the most.

5. Under no circumstances, say that the charts will downgrade. Seriously don't!!!

6. Continue through October to March.

?

7.Say comments like, 'still in the game' and 'all to play for'. ?

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Do you know what the really annoying thing is? Last time we had a split vortex and polar temps (it was -14C with blue skies), I hadn't made the observation about horses drinking more when cold is on the way. I spent 2 weeks desperately trying to get water to them after every supply in the place froze. All I remember about that was spending 2 hours a day with a kettle trying to unfreeze the tap and pipes at the stables.

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1 minute ago, Fiona Robertson said:

Do you know what the really annoying thing is? Last time we had a split vortex and polar temps (it was -14C with blue skies), I hadn't made the observation about horses drinking more when cold is on the way. I spent 2 weeks desperately trying to get water to them after every supply in the place froze. All I remember about that was spending 2 hours a day with a kettle trying to unfreeze the tap and pipes at the stables.

Invest in a roofers blowtorch and gas bottle it what I use 

 

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This is Fiona's post. 

Quote

I'm posting this in the model thread because I want to keep an eye on how the conventional models pan out in comparison to my "model". This might strike you all as a bt like old wives' tales, but it's been a recurring theme every single time we get a good cold snap. My horses start to drink enough to make 'em slosh when cold weather is on this way. This is something I've been observing for years. Usually the lead time is 24-48 hours, but this year they started drinking copiously about a week ago more than they ever have before other cold spells. Now, the explanation for this is that horses somehow sense that a freezing spell is coming and make sure they have enough water on board before it freezes over. On top of that they become subdued, much more subdued than normal, possibly to save calories for heating. Currently these two horses, who drink half of their water overnight at most, have been polishing it off completely by morning and they're so quiet going out and coming in. Tonight we have the slightest hint of tiny ice crystals falling, bitter cold, no wind and clouded over and it all feels very boding... general bodingness. I could feel it radiating from them, they were very reluctant to be more than six inches from me when I was bringing them in.

As I said, it sounds like old wives' tales and I am a rather old wife myself, but their behaviour today has been striking. My gut tells me a couple of days and the horses won't want to go out.

As I have explained on pm, it really didn't have any model info in it, and was far better suited to the winter thread, the regionals or here. Or it could even have been put in its own thread - animals and weather or something like that may get some interest and other observations (feel free to start it). 

The team are massively over-worked right now, there have been over 100 posts reported today alone, and countless other things going on away from those. We're trying to keep things on an even keel in what has been a fractious model thread at times, and frankly it's been hard to keep up. 

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11 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

and when favourite model goes tits up, stop posting

And, as soon as any model-run predicts snow (anywhere, anytime - and even if it was made by Airfix)) nip in quick and type 'BOOM!' in capital letters...Lovely jubbly!

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Interesting about the horses, and it makes me wonder if the physical cause and effect is that the horses can sense changes in the magnetic field in the same way that birds use it to navigate during migrations. Then that might be indirect evidence that magnetic fields and weather patterns are related as I have suspected. Usually, natural signs held out as indicators (like more berries, unusual numbers of wildlife) are explained by some as being responses to things that already occurred, so that they are not predictive, but even then, if what occurred is correlative, it's a predictive possibility if not random chance. With a sentient life form though, the chances of a conscious decision increase, so I would certainly not dismiss it and the way the models are behaving, maybe we should just stick to observing these signs instead. 

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1 minute ago, Paul said:

This is Fiona's post. 

As I have explained on pm, it really didn't have any model info in it, and was far better suited to the winter thread, the regionals or here. Or it could even have been put in its own thread - animals and weather or something like that may get some interest and other observations (feel free to start it). 

The team are massively over-worked right now, there have been over 100 posts reported today alone, and countless other things going on away from those. We're trying to keep things on an even keel in what has been a fractious model thread at times, and frankly it's been hard to keep up. 

Why not bring in post restrictions  in there ,might make people be careful  about posting 

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8 minutes ago, Fiona Robertson said:

Do you know what the really annoying thing is? Last time we had a split vortex and polar temps (it was -14C with blue skies), I hadn't made the observation about horses drinking more when cold is on the way. I spent 2 weeks desperately trying to get water to them after every supply in the place froze. All I remember about that was spending 2 hours a day with a kettle trying to unfreeze the tap and pipes at the stables.

They [your horses] are nae called GFS, ECM and ICON are they, Fiona??

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2 minutes ago, Paul said:

This is Fiona's post. 

 As I have explained on pm, it really didn't have any model info in it, and was far better suited to the winter thread, the regionals or here. Or it could even have been put in its own thread - animals and weather or something like that may get some interest and other observations (feel free to start it). 

The team are massively over-worked right now, there have been over 100 posts reported today alone, and countless other things going on away from those. We're trying to keep things on an even keel in what has been a fractious model thread at times, and frankly it's been hard to keep up. 

An interesting post from Fiona, but as you've said, absolutely nout to do with the models.

 

My sense would be that general sharp adjustment from reasonably mild to cold and this being the first major cold blast of the winter would be what is driving the horses to their behaviour rather than any magnetic field suggestion as described above.

1 minute ago, Mokidugway said:

Why not bring in post restrictions  in there ,might make people be careful  about posting 

They already have these (I speak as someone much subjected to them in the past) but there more for people who persist in unwanted behaviours / actually try and get a rise out of people rather than mere OT posts, although I suppose a stricter enforcement of OT rules might help people get a grip in the model thread. 

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I appreciate the difficulty of moderating but sometimes it might be better to let the chips fall where they may, the main point of a model discussion thread is to get an overall sense of how the community is responding to the models as presented, it's our version of the forecast discussion that goes on in a real forecast office before they issue a product. And those can be fairly rambunctious, it's not just a bunch of greybeards puffing on pipes and quoting Bjerknes on the Eckman spiral. 

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1 minute ago, Deep Snow please said:

An interesting post from Fiona, but as you've said, absolutely nout to do with the models.

 

My sense would be that general sharp adjustment from reasonably mild to cold and this being the first major cold blast of the winter would be what is driving the horses to their behaviour rather than any magnetic field suggestion as described above.

They already have these (I speak as someone much subjected to them in the past) but there more for people who persist in unwanted behaviours / actually try and get a rise out of people rather than mere OT posts, although I suppose a stricter enforcement of OT rules might help people get a grip in the model thread. 

But you're bad ,unlike me who's an angel of netweather ?

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2 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

I appreciate the difficulty of moderating but sometimes it might be better to let the chips fall where they may, the main point of a model discussion thread is to get an overall sense of how the community is responding to the models as presented, it's our version of the forecast discussion that goes on in a real forecast office before they issue a product. And those can be fairly rambunctious, it's not just a bunch of greybeards puffing on pipes and quoting Bjerknes on the Eckman spiral. 

Hey Roger, is that Bryce canyon  in your avi ?

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2 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

An interesting post from Fiona, but as you've said, absolutely nout to do with the models.

 

My sense would be that general sharp adjustment from reasonably mild to cold and this being the first major cold blast of the winter would be what is driving the horses to their behaviour rather than any magnetic field suggestion as described above.

They already have these (I speak as someone much subjected to them in the past) but there more for people who persist in unwanted behaviours / actually try and get a rise out of people rather than mere OT posts, although I suppose a stricter enforcement of OT rules might help people get a grip in the model thread. 

Well, the relevance of models is that the behaviour began around the time of the vortex split and has continued, despite model downgrades today. Does this behaviour in any way correlate to what the models are telling us? Is one model correlating whilst others are not? And when we reach the nowcast, is there any correlation? Nothing to do with model outputs? It's everything to do with model outputs.

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7 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

Why not bring in post restrictions  in there ,might make people be careful  about posting 

I'm guessing you're meaning something like the old serious discussion restriction? If so, it would be a big challenge technically as it uses more resources to check post counts n stuff, which in such a busy thread could break stuff. 

3 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

I appreciate the difficulty of moderating but sometimes it might be better to let the chips fall where they may, the main point of a model discussion thread is to get an overall sense of how the community is responding to the models as presented, it's our version of the forecast discussion that goes on in a real forecast office before they issue a product. And those can be fairly rambunctious, it's not just a bunch of greybeards puffing on pipes and quoting Bjerknes on the Eckman spiral. 

Thanks for the feedback - we're discussing the thread format at the moment ?

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2 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

I appreciate the difficulty of moderating but sometimes it might be better to let the chips fall where they may, the main point of a model discussion thread is to get an overall sense of how the community is responding to the models as presented, it's our version of the forecast discussion that goes on in a real forecast office before they issue a product. And those can be fairly rambunctious, it's not just a bunch of greybeards puffing on pipes and quoting Bjerknes on the Eckman spiral. 

That might be what the model thread has evolved into but that is really not the original point of it. The point of the model thread is for posters to undertake relatively serious discussion and analysis of model output. As in actually looking at the charts and evaluating what they say for people to read. The issue is during major potential events like this, the entire thread gets hijacked by people emotionally responding in glorified statements of "bad" or "good" or trying to rub other people's analyses and forecasts based on yesterday's model output which is completely different to today's outputs and frankly becomes and incoherent mess. It's why hunt for cold never worked, because it was too generous with stuff that wasn't model discussion and analyse. The model thread is vital for those of us who want genuine knowledgeable interpretation of the data.  

 

Anyway we're going way OT for this thread which is actually for what you're saying; grasping this forum's view on models and for any one liner musings about models.

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4 minutes ago, Fiona Robertson said:

Well, the relevance of models is that the behaviour began around the time of the vortex split and has continued, despite model downgrades today. Does this behaviour in any way correlate to what the models are telling us? Is one model correlating whilst others are not? And when we reach the nowcast, is there any correlation? Nothing to do with model outputs? It's everything to do with model outputs.

You're talking about horses, you could easily set up another thread in this forum regards to that but it's not a direct forecasting discussion based on right now model output. At least you're allowed to discuss your pet conspiracy theory, mine breaks the forums no politics rule so won't be being discussed on here any time soon. ? 

 

I do wonder if animals sense danger from the elements in immediate terms, yesterday several birds in our garden flew into hedgerows as the clouds game over for the snow showers, but I don't think they're is anything deeper than that to it.

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Maybe you should make it plain that the model thread is only for those who can take part in deep discussions about the minutiae of the outputs and lay people should just keep out. I'll remember for the future that any post about model verification or otherwise is not allowed there. Glad we cleared that up.

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3 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

You're talking about horses, you could easily set up another thread in this forum regards to that but it's not a direct forecasting discussion based on right now model output. At least you're allowed to discuss your pet conspiracy theory, mine breaks the forums no politics rule so won't be being discussed on here any time soon. ? 

 

I do wonder if animals sense danger from the elements in immediate terms, yesterday several birds in our garden flew into hedgerows as the clouds game over for the snow showers, but I don't think they're is anything deeper than that to it.

"your pet conspiracy theory"??? Seriously?

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3 minutes ago, Fiona Robertson said:

Well, the relevance of models is that the behaviour began around the time of the vortex split and has continued, despite model downgrades today. Does this behaviour in any way correlate to what the models are telling us? Is one model correlating whilst others are not? And when we reach the nowcast, is there any correlation? Nothing to do with model outputs? It's everything to do with model outputs.

I can see where you're coming from, Fiona, but I can't see any easy way of investigating it: it would mean making the, none too straightforward, assumption that there's a connection between computer models and the weather...an assumption that has, during recent days especially, been brought into serious question...? ?

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10 minutes ago, Fiona Robertson said:

Maybe you should make it plain that the model thread is only for those who can take part in deep discussions about the minutiae of the outputs and lay people should just keep out. I'll remember for the future that any post about model verification or otherwise is not allowed there. Glad we cleared that up.

That's not what's being said though. I know you disagree, but the reason your post was removed was because the moderator in question believed there was no clear link to the models, and I agree with them. You're suggesting your horses react to upcoming cold weather, and while there's a tenuous link to the models as they forecast the weather, you could just about argue any weather related subject could be discussed in the model thread on that basis. But it can't work that way. 

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We could go round in circles forever here. I get that you disagree, but ultimately, as I explained the team have had a very busy day, made a call on your post and have explained it to you.

Personally, if I was making a model related post, I'd discuss those in the post somewhere at least, then I don't think there'd be any reason for the team to remove it. But again, that's just my opinion and I don't expect you to agree. 

I'm sorry the team didn't contact you quickly enough about your post, and I'm sorry that on this occasion your post was removed - I think it's probably the first time you've ever had that happen in your time on here. As I say though, maybe start a fresh thread about the subject, the winter area would be a good spot, and I suspect you may get some interest and responses from people who may have seen similar behaviours.

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