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3 hours ago, CuriousOAP said:

I’m not sure I understand what a Murr sausage is yet, still working on that one.

Here you go:

3 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

out of date chart, but a sausage shaped high, stretching from Greenland or Iceland to Scandinavia area

gfs-0-216.png?18

 

Edited by chrisbell-nottheweatherman

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3 hours ago, Danielvn said:

No one is happy about the downgrades, the reason why they are coming out of the woodwork is to YET AGAIN point out the folly of putting so much faith in stuff that’s in FI. I think some of the people held in such high regard need to have a good look at themselves. They won’t, but they should.

I'd also like there to be an agreed definition a 'shortwave'.  Most Mod thread cold fans seem to have personal definitions, many of which don't agree with info. I've found online from professionals. 

Edited by chrisbell-nottheweatherman
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well that is that, 24 hours, and the models collapse, faster than England batting v Australia at the Ashes

dust to dust, and all that. Onwards

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Weather is what weather does  , there's always  winter 19 /20 to look forward to 😂

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Well time to crack put the fancy single malt, although it will probably turn out to be Bells in a fancy bottle.....

Hopefully it won't be long to see the next route to cold, and then the next way it will fail. 😛

Edited by Captain Shortwave

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I've now virtually given up on winter 18/19, something is just not right this year.  Ok, severe cold didn't arrive last year until Feb/March but at least there were several cold snaps throughout the first half of winter.  This year has seen more or less nowt in the way of anything resembling cold so far.  We have had the SSW, but the weather has not played ball.  I'm not pinning any hopes on February, either, with cold continuing to be put back!  Chances are this winter will be remembered for all the wrong reasons!!

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Just when it looked like easterlies were going to arrive

DxSaSaHWkAAuLPN.thumb.jpg.94cd56246e55e07e8db60bf624a075d1.jpg

😲

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4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Just when it looked like easterlies were going to arrive

DxSaSaHWkAAuLPN.thumb.jpg.94cd56246e55e07e8db60bf624a075d1.jpg

😲

Yet another easterly fiasco!!

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Just now, Don said:

Yet another easterly fiasco!!

Yep default colour of UK 🤔

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 I'd have been better off consulting Bill Foggitt about the weather

 

imgID125890751.jpg

Edited by cobbett
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51 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

Weather is what weather does  , there's always  winter 19 /20 to look forward to 😂

It'll be the same hideousness i'm afraid.

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5 minutes ago, Eugene said:

It'll be the same hideousness i'm afraid.

Moist likley 😐

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43 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Just when it looked like easterlies were going to arrive

DxSaSaHWkAAuLPN.thumb.jpg.94cd56246e55e07e8db60bf624a075d1.jpg

😲

That will be gone on the next run, or by the morning ,the AO tonight is showing strong negative which means very strong possibility of pressure rising to our North by as early as next weekend which will give us weather from the east with sliders running into France ,I'm very upbeat about what's heading our way in the next few weeks ,it's all good in the valley tonight

 

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2 hours ago, Don said:

I've now virtually given up on winter 18/19, something is just not right this year.  Ok, severe cold didn't arrive last year until Feb/March but at least there were several cold snaps throughout the first half of winter.  This year has seen more or less nowt in the way of anything resembling cold so far.  We have had the SSW, but the weather has not played ball.  I'm not pinning any hopes on February, either, with cold continuing to be put back!  Chances are this winter will be remembered for all the wrong reasons!!

Honestly, seeing this backtrack in the models again and I'm not surprised. Unfortunately there's so much down to luck even when you've got SSWs, Wave activity, low sunspots and all that. This year it seems it's Eastern North America and Eastern Europe's turn. Unfortunately there's just too much energy coming out of the US to allow significant heights to the NW/N/NE. Until that lobe shifts further west over the Hudson Bay, it's curtains on any long term potential. Hoping i'm proved wrong, still  a couple months left.

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That U.S. low is already looking further north and west on its track so I am expecting another round of model flip flops tonight and Sunday.

There's no particular reason why this jog in the road is any more important than the past four or five. Remember the 950 mb low that was supposed to move south across Britain on Tuesday IIRC (a week ago it was on some charts). 

I have the feeling that there will be a change (for real) and that once it is fully analyzed by the models, it will create a consensus that looks credible with the building blocks already visible on the charts. Right now, it's the six blind men and the elephant on a four-times-daily schedule. 

Take this weather quiz and see what your bias is:

1. I would imagine that professional weather forecasters in big agencies or companies have

(a) secret models that only they can see

(b) almost infallible methods that they refuse to share with weather weenies like you or me

(c) uncanny abilities to guess which model is right or wrong

(d) no more idea than us what is going to happen

 

2. The best forecast model is

(a) the one that shows a mild solution

(b) the one that shows the coldest solution

(c) the one that comes out last

(d) the secret one (see above)

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4 minutes ago, Fiona Robertson said:

So I have now had two posts removed from the model thread. One was about correlating the behaviour of my horses to the model outputs and being interested in seeing what happens. Apparently this wasn't model related and so was removed. And my post asking if my initial post was removed has now been removed. Look guys, I've been here for years, I very rarely post. To have a specifically model related post removed from the model thread because it wasn't model related stinks. Apparently it wasn't even worth moving it to the banter thread or asking me to move it to that thread. The post is just... gone. No warning, no request... nothing. 

 

However, I can go to the model thread and read about Murr's sausage cos models, dontcherknow.

That sucks, I'm sure quite a few would be interested in hearing the details about the horses' behaviour, so why not at least post that part of the deleted post here where it won't get deleted probably? At this point, I would believe a horse ahead of the GFS anyway. 

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Rules for Acceptable Posts in the Model Thread

1.Include charts that may/may not/no clue if theyll verify.

2.Describe in infinite detail why charts will verify in deep cold/heavy snow fall for the entire UK.

3.Describe charts as 'BOOM'.

4.For 1,2 and 3, use whichever model will please readers of the model thread the most.

5. Under no circumstances, say that the charts will downgrade. Seriously don't!!!

6. Continue through October to March.

😆

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Just now, Roger J Smith said:

That sucks, I'm sure quite a few would be interested in hearing the details about the horses' behaviour, so why not at least post that part of the deleted post here where it won't get deleted probably? At this point, I would believe a horse ahead of the GFS anyway. 

I don't have a copy of the post. It was just deleted. However, I'll try to summarise and add more info to make the connection to the model outputs more apparent.

Just over a week ago my horses started drinking much, much more than normal. Now, I've noticed in previous years that they do this usually 24-48 hours prior to a really cold spell. Around the time they started drinking more, the polar vortex had either split or was about to split cos of the SSW. Even although a really cold spell didn't follow in the usual time frame, they continued to completely finish their water every single night, even the one who hardly drinks anything. We're talking 40 litres a night here. On top of that they've become unusually subdued yesterday and today and I noticed we had tiny ice crystals falling when I brought them in. They were sticking to me like glue on the way to the stables and even although their feeds were there, they went straight to their water. The have water in their field and they're drinking more in the field as well.

Now, this is unusual. It's not the normal behaviour I usually see before a cold snap. This has been prolonged. In discussion with a vet in the past it's apparently known that horses are known for increasing their water intake prior to a clod spell. It's thought that this is an evolutionary survival mechanism whereby they ensure that they have plenty of water on board before supplies freeze solid. I'm interested to see if this more extreme form of behaviour is going to be followed by a historic plunge into the deep freeze. To do this, I have to watch the model outputs and note the behaviour of the horses. I'm interested for two reasons - I have horses and I'm a former research biologist. So I've become interested in looking at horse behaviour prior to weather events and especially correlations between specific model outputs, horse behaviour and eventual weather outcomes.

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Just now, Disco_Stu said:

Rules for Acceptable Posts in the Model Thread

1.Include charts that may/may not/no clue if theyll verify.

2.Describe in infinite detail why charts will verify in deep cold/heavy snow fall for the entire UK.

3.Describe charts as 'BOOM'.

4.For 1,2 and 3, use whichever model will please readers of the model thread the most.

5. Under no circumstances, say that the charts will downgrade. Seriously don't!!!

6. Continue through October to March.

😆

You forgot check likes tally at end of session 😁

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Just now, Mokidugway said:

You forgot check likes tally at end of session 😁

and when favourite model goes tits up, stop posting

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Just now, Mokidugway said:

You forgot check likes tally at end of session 😁

Yes, I'm sure quite a few do that 😄

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1 minute ago, Mokidugway said:

You forgot check likes tally at end of session 😁

My post had 10 likes before it was removed. I think my mistake was not mentioning a Murr sausage.

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9 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:
13 minutes ago, Fiona Robertson said:

So I have now had two posts removed from the model thread. One was about correlating the behaviour of my horses to the model outputs and being interested in seeing what happens. Apparently this wasn't model related and so was removed. And my post asking if my initial post was removed has now been removed. Look guys, I've been here for years, I very rarely post. To have a specifically model related post removed from the model thread because it wasn't model related stinks. Apparently it wasn't even worth moving it to the banter thread or asking me to move it to that thread. The post is just... gone. No warning, no request... nothing. 

 

 However, I can go to the model thread and read about Murr's sausage cos models, dontcherknow.

Fiona I think the mods are horsing around with you - models make a foal out of us all.

I read the original post and very much enjoyed it - good to see a member on here who is stable.

Quite a few folk having an absolute mare on here with regards to reading the charts.

Time for me to go to pastures new by visiting my regional thread.

Have a good night all.

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