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Damn, bang goes my theory that if there's loads of new pages to read in the mod thread since I last checked in (20 pages in this case) then the outlook must be awesome..... wrong! Those 20 pages were full of moans, which should have been in this thread anyway lol. 

At least we won't have long to wait to find out if the ukmo is on the money or not, all should be revealed on the 12z runs (I hope!!) 

Edited by Smartie

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One thing that bugs me on here is the posters who only crawl out of the woodwork when things are going pear shaped...🍐

By the way, looks like another broken promise from Michael Gove...'winter is coming' he promised if MPs voted down May's Brexit deal. 

Edited by Mike Poole
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1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

One thing that bugs me on here is the posters who only crawl out of the woodwork when things are going pear shaped...🍐

By the way, looks like another broken promise from Michael Gove...'winter is coming' he promised if MPs voted down May's Brexit deal. 

Your not the only one who noticed that, sad really isn't it. 

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Maybe we should have expected downgrades as the charts have been extremely good recently so this is not a surprise.  There is also a lot of imby posts which can be misleading.  

 

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UKMO will likely back down from the cold too. It’s a complete failure from the ENS.

The Meto will be embarrassed but then they were never fully onboard and used the usual caveats. I disagreed with their weighting (70% cold with what should have read 30% cold). Guess they had to go with their models (which were hopelessly wrong).

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3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

One thing that bugs me on here is the posters who only crawl out of the woodwork when things are going pear shaped...🍐

By the way, looks like another broken promise from Michael Gove...'winter is coming' he promised if MPs voted down May's Brexit deal. 

 

Just now, Smartie said:

Your not the only one who noticed that, sad really isn't it. 

HAHA yep, exactly the same thoughts from me too.

I mean there is a small element who only post good charts, but certain people are completely absent, and then suddenly they're posting bad charts as if they either know whats going to happen, or just want to rub it in. They're perfectly entitled to do that obviously, just find it strange, sad, funny, and a bit pathetic really lol

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2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

One thing that bugs me on here is the posters who only crawl out of the woodwork when things are going pear shaped...🍐

 

Yep, there’s one in particular who went AWOL over the last few days, then magically showed up again this morning...

I think it’s fair to say we’ve all had a bit of a kick in the stomach since yesterday evening. Things trending the wrong way for later next week, however still plenty of time left this winter and we’re in an atmospheric state much more conducive to cold and snow than normal. 

Ive said this a couple of times on the MOD thread and will say it again - none of us should get too excited at stellar runs or too despondent at crap runs unless they’re within 72-96hrs. The stellar runs from yesterday morning were still 5 to 6 days out from the potential easterly actually setting in. That is a significant amount of time for things to go wrong, especially with easterlies as we all know a small spoiler can be the difference between heaven and hell for our small island. 

Lets hope the UKMO is still on the right path and we see a backtrack from the ECM, and if not I still think we have plenty of time left for a good snowy spell this winter. 

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1 minute ago, DCee said:

UKMO will likely back down from the cold too. It’s a complete failure from the ENS.

The Meto will be embarrassed but then they were never fully onboard and used the usual caveats. I disagreed with their weighting (70% cold with what should have read 30% cold). Guess they had to go with their models (which were hopelessly wrong).

Thing is though, nearly all the models have been hopelessly wrong, you cant pin it on the UKMO ****IF**** things still continue to go pear shaped.

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Well maybe it’s a case of short term pain long term gain lol, GFS ends with an absolute peach on a greeny high and entrenched cold. Keep chin up my cold hunting pals 👍

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Lots of truthsayers in the model thread who are a little wrapped up in the fantasy of depicting great weather events. Bless them. 

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8 minutes ago, Smiler1709 said:

Well maybe it’s a case of short term pain long term gain lol, GFS ends with an absolute peach on a greeny high and entrenched cold. Keep chin up my cold hunting pals 👍

Sick of FI dying off before it comes true tbh.

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Mods, hope this is in the right place, delete at you leisure.

 

As a newbie I just wanted to say thanks to all all the amateur and professional meteorologists who post here, many folk like me never set up accounts and are regular lurkers, like myself, for many years.

 

As an OAP I get to pop in here a couple of times a day to see when the snow will arrive, and have picked up invaluable insights and have become knowledgeable regarding met terminology.

 

Terms like :

Promising

Very promising (used a lot)

Perfect

Messy

Eye candy

More upgrades needed

Straw clutching

Game changer

 

I’m not sure I understand what a Murr sausage is yet, still working on that one.

 

Can anyone explain why deep cold and snow is always 2 weeks away?  Bought loads of long life milk in December and the missus is starting to ask questions, she also wants to know when I am going to move the rock salt so that she can get her car back in the garage.

 

Once again many thanks to everyone here,

 

Curious OAP

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Moderaters have a really tough job in there without doubt.

They are all human of course and follow the same guidelines, but the interpretation of what goes from time to time is differing to put it mildly.

I have posted a little more in the mod thread this winter, as a long term lurker in there I felt I had something to contribute at times so why not?

Twice in the last 24hrs I have had posts deleted that have strayed ( hands up) a little off topic.

Some discussion about the various data that is provided to the BBC from Meteogroup , and how the Met office have other models they use ( a link to the model discussion but a little tenuous maybe)

This morning a jokey thread about the models and brexit.

Like I say, wrong place for them both technically but quite heavy handed when time and again certain members are able to carry on pretty much as they please.

If some of this back slapping and back stabbing was cut out and it was purely a model discussion I would have no problem with any of this.

There was a reason Mr Ferguson left, and it certainly wasn't a bit of humour here and there.

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out of date chart, but a sausage shaped high, stretching from Greenland or Iceland to Scandinavia area

gfs-0-216.png?18

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19 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

One thing that bugs me on here is the posters who only crawl out of the woodwork when things are going pear shaped...🍐

 

Consider this Mike:

It might be because they're too scared to post a differing view to those promising "Boom synoptics", "Snow for all",  "businesses will have to shut down", "the UK will be paralysed by snow", etc, etc.  That is why some posters dont post for fear of upsetting the excited consensus.

Anyway, as we're in the banter thread here's my boring, repetitive take which i've posted a few times lately: 

UK will live off the scraps - North Westerly cold incursions are almost bound to happen even in a typically 'average' UK Winter; sustained Winter Easterlies or North Easterlies (say 3 to 4 days plus) are rare for the UK.

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29 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

One thing that bugs me on here is the posters who only crawl out of the woodwork when things are going pear shaped...🍐

By the way, looks like another broken promise from Michael Gove...'winter is coming' he promised if MPs voted down May's Brexit deal. 

No one is happy about the downgrades, the reason why they are coming out of the woodwork is to YET AGAIN point out the folly of putting so much faith in stuff that’s in FI. I think some of the people held in such high regard need to have a good look at themselves. They won’t, but they should.

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12 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Consider this Mike:

It might be because they're too scared to post a differing view to those promising "Boom synoptics", "Snow for all",  "businesses will have to shut down", "the UK will be paralysed by snow", etc, etc.  That is why some posters dont post for fear of upsetting the excited consensus.

Anyway, as we're in the banter thread here's my boring, repetitive take which i've posted a few times lately: 

UK will live off the scraps - North Westerly cold incursions are almost bound to happen even in a typically 'average' UK Winter; sustained Winter Easterlies or North Easterlies (say 3 to 4 days plus) are rare for the UK.

Spot on, a post a couple of days ago that may have pointed out that what we are seeing now from the GFS and ECM would have got dogs abuse aimed at anyone relatively new to posting there.

Guess what, a forum 'heavyweight'with the same info at their disposal but a coldies viewpoint would have been lorded for their amazing insight and received 50 odd 'likes'

The newbie returns to lurking, ashamed of themselves for daring to say anything!

This is not to be confused when a different type of poster only appears to wind up cold lovers when hopes turn to dust, they are not lurkers but quite regular here, never really dealt with as they are technically not breaking posting guidelines in that MOD thread.

Edited by sunnijim
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5 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Consider this Mike:

It might be because they're too scared to post a differing view to those promising "Boom synoptics", "Snow for all",  "businesses will have to shut down", "the UK will be paralysed by snow", etc, etc.  That is why some posters dont post for fear of upsetting the excited consensus.

Anyway, as we're in the banter thread here's my boring, repetitive take which i've posted a few times lately: 

UK will live off the scraps - North Westerly cold incursions are almost bound to happen even in a typically 'average' UK Winter; sustained Winter Easterlies or North Easterlies (say 3 to 4 days plus) are rare for the UK.

I don’t think anyone is worried about upsetting anyone. If you so much as go into the model thread and suggest caution then you get accused of actually going out into the Atlantic and pumping up low pressure systems to scupper their cold weather.

 

WHAT PEOPLE POST ON A FORUM DOES NOT AFFECT THE WEATHER IN ANY WAY SHAPE OR FORM and I wish some people would get over themselves.

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9 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Consider this Mike:

It might be because they're too scared to post a differing view to those promising "Boom synoptics", "Snow for all",  "businesses will have to shut down", "the UK will be paralysed by snow", etc, etc.  That is why some posters dont post for fear of upsetting the excited consensus.

Anyway, as we're in the banter thread here's my boring, repetitive take which i've posted a few times lately: 

UK will live off the scraps - North Westerly cold incursions are almost bound to happen even in a typically 'average' UK Winter; sustained Winter Easterlies or North Easterlies (say 3 to 4 days plus) are rare for the UK.

Not quite, I think Mike is spot on with what he said. 

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14 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Consider this Mike:

It might be because they're too scared to post a differing view to those promising "Boom synoptics", "Snow for all",  "businesses will have to shut down", "the UK will be paralysed by snow", etc, etc.  That is why some posters dont post for fear of upsetting the excited consensus.

Anyway, as we're in the banter thread here's my boring, repetitive take which i've posted a few times lately: 

UK will live off the scraps - North Westerly cold incursions are almost bound to happen even in a typically 'average' UK Winter; sustained Winter Easterlies or North Easterlies (say 3 to 4 days plus) are rare for the UK.

Possible, I suppose, some people do ramp to that extent, I hopefully don't but we can all get carried away sometimes.  Don't think it's the case with the post that prompted my post though.

 And agree with you about the rarity of winter easterlies, if they were commonplace the chase wouldn't entice.  

Stakes less high in summer, of course. less of a roller coaster.

Edited by Mike Poole
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At the end of the day, whilst models upgrade, downgrade and lose the plot (and folks argue over spilt milk and apportion blame) the weather just carries on as if nothing had happened: it's destined to do one thing, and one thing only - it's just a shame that neither man nor computer can accurately predict it...yet!

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There can be plenty of ramping for sure.....BUT what a lot of people forget (and I'm talking to the ones who accuse well respected posters of ramping and talking BS), is that the majority of posters who are supposedly ramping, are just simply commenting on the model output, and in fact the model output was showing the UK getting quite a hefty battering. If the model output changes overnight (which it frequently does) then it isnt the poster fault that what they said was wrong, because they simple commented on a particular run.

However, saying that winter is over, and I told you so, I knew we'd have a dull boring zonal winter bla bla bla, based simply on an opinion, is just as bad as saying we're all gonna be snowed in for weeks and weeks. I dont mean this offensively, but I think a large number of people belong in a goldfish tank sometimes, seeing as they appear to have very short memories lol.

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Dull boring zonal winter is actually quite likely - based on the energy from the States...

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