Jump to content

Model banter returns


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 735
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Good grief I don’t look in this thread for 1 hour and apparently the world is ending. Some of you need to get a grip, honestly. How often has either ECMWF-GFS-or UK Met done something simila

Looks like someone has been out celebrating last night snow with a bottle of my favourite Spanish Cava !

Posted Images

Sick of a run of recent mild winters, last year I went skiing for the first time in 25 years.  We went to Austria and the week we went was the end of February. although it was mighty cold that week, we didn't see too much in the way of snowfall and even got a little bit of rain right at the end. the snow action was back in the UK!  I missed the best week of winter weather for several years while I was away.

This year I'm going skiing to Austria again, at the start of February. I can't help noticing the models showing a more north easterly element to the cold out at that range.  So this time I'm thinking, not only could the UK be snowier than I find Austria to be again, this time it could be colder as well! 

Really looking forward to the fun and games ahead....always with the sense of caution that some of us on this forum will have stamped onto our DNA through past experiences of let downs in the past!  But a part of me will be a little annoyed if it turns out that, for the second year running, I've missed out on the best of the winter weather that went the way of the UK!

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Anyone with experience been able to sort out an understated review of the current setup that ignores wishful thinking?

A major cold event would be interesting and snow fascinating to watch but it would cause horrendous problems for many.

I do ponder how some on the forums are able to do their job that their employer is paying for. Can’t all be retired.

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

I hate to pull out the major ramps but it does seem that even the stonewalled, "it doesn't matter til T+0" and "it can always be downgraded til it's on your doorstep" brigaded are beginning to get excited about the prospects that lie ahead. But to be honest even if things go wrong here some of these charts are a pleasure to watch roll out regardless of whether they vary. Have we ever seen a cold pool of this sort before?

 

The first snow has fallen today of the winter today, much of the country is now in cold air, people up and down the country are digging through the draws to find a pair of gloves and accumulating for their heating bills. But could it be time for getting sleds out and skiing to work, with an easterly tapping into that cold pool the UK will be closed for business regardless of other things than weather:

 

Look at that cold pool;image.thumb.png.d4d005004826fc03c5af07567e108ea4.png

 

image.thumb.png.87547713504adb0ef6ff19114279b65e.png

Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

pornhub.thumb.PNG.a315b614a4d64420188faa69dc515a74.PNG

It would be really helpful when posting like this actually gave an analysis. Those posting such things might know what it is all about but in this thread a candid review is welcome. 

Edited by Snipper
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Really bored of this winter.

Very little "active weather".  Just a bucket load of potential that just fizzles out into meh crap when said potential hits the reliable timeframe.

Personally, for my location, I'm not expecting anything snowy for the next week or so at least.  Maybe a bit of sleet if I'm really lucky on Tuesday but that's about it.

This winter is fast becoming the "day 10 potential" winter.

Bring on the summer thunderstorms.  Fastly turning into a summer lover rather than a winter lover.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Absolutely unreal EC, unsure now of cold blast, big guns on model thread rate EC as top model, yes still snow chances tue/wed, but freeze is off, nervy 00Z's in morning

GFS is slagged off by 'big guns' so confidence in a freeze lowered big style

Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

The ecm has the dreaded hump of doom over the north sea. This stops the cold uppers in their tracks to our east. This has happened so many times in the last 15 years. Why? 

Mountains.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Probably in the realms of ramping so will put in here, but is this outlined path one that is possible as the modelling currently goes. Low traverses over UK hooking up with the North American cold, we return to E/NE'ly flow tapping into Northern European cold pool and then we get a Westerly tapping into the cold back out over North America etc....

 

Would be a pretty cool progression, but what are the realistic chances of it?

 

4 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

How about this for Holy Grail.

 

First one is the low tracking over the UK, which would then leave the cold pool in the east to tap into. At which point we could tap back into the low and existing cold pool for a 3rd wave of cold. 

 

 

export (1).png

export (3).png

export (4).png

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...