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Good grief I don’t look in this thread for 1 hour and apparently the world is ending. Some of you need to get a grip, honestly. How often has either ECMWF-GFS-or UK Met done something simila

Looks like someone has been out celebrating last night snow with a bottle of my favourite Spanish Cava !

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1 minute ago, Paul said:

No runs are 'important' at the moment, as there's so much flux run to run. The ecm tonight may be amazing for cold/snow, then the 00z tomorrow may be totally different, and vice versa. I'd not be judging any single run from any model at any more than face value right now.

The only important run is the one for bread and milk if some of these scenarios played out in the models come off.

 

Back to earth, dissecting whether it's a good bad run based on posts in the model thread (that are highly subjective to a) where the poster lives and b) what the posters desired weather outcome is) is very much a hiding to nothing.

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59 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Looks like the AZH or mid-Atlantic high (name preference is yours) is the spoiler again on latest model runs

Aye, think we'll see bit of back edge snow very early Tuesday for this location, (snow all day tues for SE), then after that turning less cold/average, with westerlies, then to FI again for cold very late Jan

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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

An even bigger point here is that while they may not control the weather, at some point they have to come on board if a cold / snow event is going to happen, the day when the whole synoptic pattern could be wrong at T24, was about 60 years ago - before they had computers.

In that respect they have to 'come on board' to whatever the weather is at T+0...But, unlike computer models, the weather has but one 'run'...Sometimes, we know what that run will be, sometimes we don't. But, whatever our epistemological limitations, the weather is not - in any way at all - dependent upon any computer run...

Probably best if I stop there, as a my cows are needing milked!?

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Just now, Ed Stone said:

In that respect they have to 'come on board' to whatever the weather is at T+0...But, unlike computer models, the weather has but one 'run'...Sometimes, we know what that run will be, sometimes we don't. But, whatever our epistemological limitations, the weather is not - in any way at all - dependent upon any computer run...

Probably best if I stop there, as a my cows are needing milked!?

Thanks for clearing that one up!!!

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1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Aye, think we'll see bit of back edge snow very early Tuesday for this location, (snow all day tues for SE), then after that turning less cold/average, with westerlies, then to FI again for cold very late Jan

Yes the easterly will likely be quickly dropped as we go into the weekend as the slider and energy from the States is plotted with more accuracy.

The cold rain/sleet on Tuesday likely to pass through quickly leaving a chilly high pressure dominated UK for a while. 

Then back to FI looking into February for another rinse and repeat? 

Edited by DCee
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spare a thought for our NE american cousins - as one poster summed up the next few days..

So it's going to rain all day Sunday, then be 4 f'n degrees Monday and Tuesday, then rain again Thursday and Friday.

We're living the dream

?

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I'm not overly pleased about the impending cold (if it happens) due to personal circumstances. Need to be ready for hospital runs over the coming two weeks.

Seen so many scenarios at this range where the UKMO isn't aligned to ECM, and many times this has proven to be key when predicting the correct solution. 

Middle ground likely IMO so def colder, but probably not disruptive snowfall. That's also a bit of hopecasting....

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It looks like we have Michael Gove to thank for this episode when it happens after saying on Tuesday on national TV that if MPs voted down the Brexit deal, winter is coming!  Looks like he's right. Makes us looking at the GFS, the stratosphere, the AAM, the MJO etc. look rather foolish, the solution was staring us in the face, and will have immediate affect into next week!

Edited by Mike Poole
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I’m very close to having to book a work trip to Dubai from 2nd - 7th Feb....  what views are there on the chances of that being a massive snowy period i’d miss out on and what lengths should I go to to get out of it??   I’ll probably have to book up on Monday so not too many more model runs left to decide.  

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2 hours ago, DCee said:

Number23 you’ll be ok I reckon, Tuesday is looking wet for those below 500ft.

Good luck with those runs of yours and hope everything pans out well.

Thank you, it's not bad news fortunately (awaiting the birth of our child) so could do without freezing conditions and icy roads! 

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12 minutes ago, Number 23 said:

Thank you, it's not bad news fortunately (awaiting the birth of our child) so could do without freezing conditions and icy roads! 

7 Feb 2009 my first daughter was due to be born.  I remember staring out the window as the snow was hammering down and watching blue lights turning up at the bottom of our hill to close the road.   (We we’re living in south London then, think it may have been a Thames streamer setup but not sure).  I spent 6 hours from 6pm - midnight pushing abandoned cars out  the way, helping drivers get moving to get home, keeping driveway and road clear, all just in case.   Ultimately, my daughter arrived a week late and all had melted, it was quite a mild drive to & from the hospital as I recall.  

Anyway, good luck!  Best of times. 

 

Edited by Big Dave
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Just now, Big Dave said:

Ultimately, my daughter arrived a week late and all had melted, it was quite a mild drive to & from the hospital as I recall.  

Anyway, good luck!  Best of times. 

 

Ha! That sounds like something that'd happen to me!

Thanks for the good wishes - 18z gfs is backing ECM for next week now, so if the UKMO gets on board overnight it's curry for dinner this weekend ?

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