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It is hard to not be pessimistic, looks more and more likely that we could return to wet and windy weather with low pressures moving quickly to our north. 

Every day the models get worse and worse with the jet stream getting higher and higher. Bring on winter 2019/2020, this one has been (and looks like it will be) a write-off. Looking at pictures from one year ago and we had snow on multiple occasions

 

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Good grief I don’t look in this thread for 1 hour and apparently the world is ending. Some of you need to get a grip, honestly. How often has either ECMWF-GFS-or UK Met done something simila

Looks like someone has been out celebrating last night snow with a bottle of my favourite Spanish Cava !

Posted Images

as posted above: "MAD thread" lol

Plain to see & the fights and anarchy akin to the 5 points in NYC of old will always spark up from time to time ? 

High velocity fuelled by the rarity of good model runs that lead to hope of what the vast majority (unlike the old banter that ian b, a pint of mild and mushy etc) wish to physically transpire and what their longing for?

Is it not that a SSW (split or daughter vorts), warm 60degree to poleward PCH(polar cap geo heights) anomlies, negative WaFz (strat wind reversal), Neg AO and NAO, MMW (Major Mid-winter Warming, not addressed so far ive witnessed?) and phase favoured MJO etc etc are certainly NOT the minimum concrete tangibles to put the UK in the freezer?

can it be labelled a similarity to a microclimate where the majority of locales (C Europe?) bear brunt of the teleconnects with the cold yet us in the UK require much more besides?

The GFS "nemesis" does not really struggle with Strat and trop coupling? It handled the recent deep cold in C Europe really well? and as things turn out most on the swingometer  have switched to their more zonal pattern anyway as things stand today?

I used to enjoy the model thread but now see it as a free for all where little is clear and everyone is expected to be a boffin with scant regard for decency at times and where their used to be debate on pro , (SACRA lol) anti and neautral cold weather then these days its massively weighted in the pure cold fans majority?

I have no real motive for this ditty? But the general air has changed massively over the years, but is that in itself due to NW popularity increase? 

anyways, may banter reign, though the models fall ? 

(sidenote: this view was posted prior to any 12z data output? but 168hr+ is a sinister drug ?)

 

Edited by mezzacyclone
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Can anyone imagine the carnage on here later if the ecm goes and does an icon on us lol. Got everything crossed it doesn't and the ecm completes a great 12z set (minus the icon, hoping that was just a wobble for that suite) 

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If it’s currently snowing lightly here already (260m altitude in the Pennines near Halifax) I’m guessing these models are good news over the next few days-2 weeks then? 

But not anything that looks like the 6-8ft drifts we had (and loved) last year?

I’ve read this thread for about 3 weeks before posting and feel I’m beginning to get the hang of things... but to translate into simpleton language we don’t have anything that looks like the sustained blast we had last year yet though do we?

Edited by Firefly2005
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2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Me! I’ve been in a horrendous mood all day! Ridiculous really ?‍♂️

Not at all Karlos. Snow does weird things to people or should I say the hope of snow! 

At least Arsenal weren’t playing that might have sent you over the edge ! ?

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9 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Can we have the festive emoticons back !  I might put out the tinsel again if we can see tonights trends continue . ?

Now who in here is going to own up to either having probs sleeping tonight with both excitement or nerves or waking up earlier than usual  to see the morning outputs !

 

As Sir Alex Ferguson would say....squeeky bum time! 

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38 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Me! I’ve been in a horrendous mood all day! Ridiculous really ?‍♂️

Mate once i see a downgrade the rest of my day then drags!!again i totally agree with you its just ridiculous?!!but tonight is one of the better nights!!

Edited by Blessed Weather
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Lol. I woke up today at 4am, had one look at the charts and then promptly turned over and went back to sleep. Been busy since but I see that the output was far better this afternoon. These up and downs to be expected though.

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28 minutes ago, shaky said:

Mate once i see a downgrade the rest of my day then drags!!again i totally agree with you its just ridiculous?!!but tonight is one of the better nights!!

Do you beat them with exclamation marks?

 

* I'll get me coat.

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5 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

A run of poor 00Z's recently, seems weird though

Mate dont remind me!!ive got a run tomorrow at 6am aswell!!last thing i want is a downgrade on the 00z lol!!!

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7 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Lol. I woke up today at 4am, had one look at the charts and then promptly turned over and went back to sleep. Been busy since but I see that the output was far better this afternoon. These up and downs to be expected though.

Yup, didn't even check the forums, knew what would be waiting in there.

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As other people have noted, it seems that the evening runs are the best and by morning its a completely different, and the consistency in the models is the worse I have seen for quite some time!

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5 minutes ago, Easton Luna Boys said:

 

Expect more swings back and forth over the next few days, but still need to see the AZH retreat and a serious sign of upper level heights developing otherwise it's more HBK than HLB

???!!its just the shear passion for snow that ive got!!but yeh i do get a little aggitated!!!

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Whether I actually see any decent snow this winter, i'm just so glad that boring period of weather is out of the way! Been glued to the models since before Christmas though. Does anyone have any methods for not getting obsessed? Something like not bothering when interest is more than +180 away?

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John, set your expectations low for snow and at worst you will be right, at best you’ll get some snow. 

Lots of sleet next week quickly followed by cold rain. Then a little more cold rain followed by sunnier days as the HP cell sets herself up over the UK.

I’m not usually wrong. Although I do honestly want to be and I’ll be happy to be proved wrong, but that’s the truth in these models thus far.

Im sure my friend the more accurate 0z will reset the nonesense of today’s runs.

Edit: I’ve just viewed the 18z and it’s about right. The ECM will duly follow and give up the easterly cold from the NE. It’s too soon.

 

Edited by DCee
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3 minutes ago, DCee said:

John, set your expectations low for snow and at worst you will be right, at best you’ll get some snow. 

Lots of sleet next week quickly followed by cold rain. Then a little more cold rain followed by sunnier days as the HP cell sets herself up over the UK.

I’m not usually wrong. Although I do honestly want to be and I’ll be happy to be proved wrong, but that’s the truth in these models thus far.

Im sure my friend the more accurate 0z will reset the nonesense of today’s runs.

 

 

Wow thought I was one of the more sceptical about next week but even I’m pretty confident there will be snow - how much and location to be determined of course 

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The Peak District and Scotland will do well with snow, and the welsh mountains. 

The rest of the UK cold rain. You might see some flakes early doors but it’ll be our favourite; cold rain. 

Dont despair and never wish time by for the sake of weather!

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1 minute ago, Chris101 said:

Was the big snowfall of last year not made up of 3/4 small circulations sliding through the UK as the trough disrupted.

I distinctly remember seeing the moisture feed pumping across from Germany for hours and running round the circulations as they came through.

Probably on a smaller scale than the JMA is showing but lots of snow.

Big difference also is that this is late January not March, what comes out of the sky will not melt in a day or two, it will freeze and with more snow likely on top will make for very dangerous conditions. Sometimes I do wonder what on earth is wrong with us longing for such extreme weather that can cause such misery for many; the elderly, the disabled, motorists, and the economy of course, and even death if things were to really get bad in prolonged freezes.?

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