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If anyone wants sobering up here is a day 7 forecast chart from January 2017 and what actually occurred! 

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21 hours ago, JoeShmoe said:

So if you say 1947, 1963, 1987, 2009/10 thats about 1 really severe winter every 20 years give or take so absolutely it could happen again - when is a different matter altogether !

Joe, I think if you align those years with records of solar minima there is a very close correlation. The reason I have been awaiting this winter for the last 15 years and will be gutted if we don't get a notable spell of wintery weather.

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37 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Is it just me? Or are others getting excited about the upcoming 12Z too? It's like the 15 minutes just before kick-off, at White Hart Lane!:unsure2:

You had me until the l Spurs reference......................🙄😉

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Afternoon, whilst we're all waiting to see if the promise in the models actually delivers something more than a fleeting few flakes, I thought I'd bring this to your attention. It was published a few years ago, for anyone who missed it at the time, it's definitely worth a read. Full of reports, photo's and personal experiences of our most memorable winters, 1947, 1963 and 1978/79.

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Frozen-Time-Worst-Winters-History/dp/1905080093/ref=sr_1_fkmr0_2?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1547223115&sr=1-2-fkmr0&keywords=frozen+it+me+ian+mccaskill

 

 

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1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

The GEFS 12z mean is looking cold / very cold with a high chance of snow during the last third of january..overall i'm very happy with the models now that predominantly boring anticyclonic spell we've had since christmas is coming to an end!!..wintry weather is on the way!👍😉❄️

Seems our feathered friends may  concur with that output too... 🤔😉🐦👏 

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There's no sugar coating it, UK & parts of Western Europe is the least likeliest to see major cold outbreaks in the whole of the Northern hemisphere.

We will go colder from the end of the week that's for sure, but a major cold spell with sub zero temps and snow for all is much harder one to call..

I  would say if we are lucky, maybe a week in Feb might be the best we could hope for. And if we did, then it could be classed as a good Winter, when you compare it to the usual Winters we are used to of course.

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4 minutes ago, SteveB said:

There's no sugar coating it, UK & parts of Western Europe is the least likeliest to see major cold outbreaks in the whole of the Northern hemisphere.

We will go colder from the end of the week that's for sure, but a major cold spell with sub zero temps and snow for all is much harder one to call..

I  would say if we are lucky, maybe a week in Feb might be the best we could hope for. And if we did, then it could be classed as a good Winter, when you compare it to the usual Winters we are used to of course.

Fully agree,the phrase "Rainbow winter" is more correct way of describing the UK winters,that pot of gold seems near but never actually arrives. This winter is shaping up to be just that,seen it time after time sadly. Just hope folk don't get to worked up when what shows on the models never actually comes true.

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GEFS 00Z ensembles for Suffolk:

image.thumb.png.f136d5415b0c7b2e221ca8bd35837e4d.pngimage.thumb.png.2499da223a7e291d586dd3821b62c87e.png  

So still no coherent signal for either major High Latitude Blocking or sustained, usefully close, European LP? Don't panic, however - we've another week in hand yet?👍

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Is anyone else getting nervous? Lol

Im busy reading the model posts and there is a perceptible belief something impressive is coming.... but have we been here before and it all comes crashing down? So much to play for!

thoughts please.....😀

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Ukmo on opening show just forecast increasing likelihood of very cold weather end of next week with possible widespread snow 😍

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There's absolutely no doubt that this winter will go down in folk lore as one in a generation, which many winters will be compared against in decades to come.  But only in Scandinavia and Central Europe, not the UK.  Snow on the beaches in Greece?  I ask you, what more will we have to watch going on elsewhere while we can't even manage a decent frost.  It  really isn't fair.  🌨️🌨️🌨️😪

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38 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

There's absolutely no doubt that this winter will go down in folk lore as one in a generation, which many winters will be compared against in decades to come.  But only in Scandinavia and Central Europe, not the UK.  Snow on the beaches in Greece?  I ask you, what more will we have to watch going on elsewhere while we can't even manage a decent frost.  It  really isn't fair.  🌨️🌨️🌨️😪

It's the downside of living on an island with a massive expanse of relatively warm water to our West!

But, occasionally the pattern will favour UK and the severe cold is steered far enough West to engulf the UK

Surely, Central and Southern Europe will soon get a break from the severe conditions soon, by the law of average?

It's been horrendous in parts of Central Europe causing major disruption and loss of life!

We don't want that, but hopefully the pattern will shift West and more wintry conditions will effect the bulk of UK at least for a short time.   :cold:

 

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The Peter Gibb video on Ian Fergusons Twitter feed was interesting.

On average, only 2 out of 3 SSW events result in major cold outbreak at mid latitudes!

Well, this one appears to be propagating down but it hasn't reached UK yet!

Exciting times ahead for cold lovers.  :cold:

Edited by snowblizzard
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1 hour ago, Sky Full said:

There's absolutely no doubt that this winter will go down in folk lore as one in a generation, which many winters will be compared against in decades to come.  But only in Scandinavia and Central Europe, not the UK.  Snow on the beaches in Greece?  I ask you, what more will we have to watch going on elsewhere while we can't even manage a decent frost.  It  really isn't fair.  🌨️🌨️🌨️😪

That's the good thing about having low expectations. I'm honestly not fussed about having a once in a generation winter. I couldn't care less about the records / numbers in the slightest to be honest. Snow is snow in my book and I think we all have a decent chance of seeing some soon.

 

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1 hour ago, snowblizzard said:

 

1 hour ago, snowblizzard said:

The Peter Gibb video on Ian Fergusons Twitter feed was interesting.

On average, only 2 out of 3 SSW events result in major cold outbreak at mid latitudes!

Well, this one appears to be propagating down but it hasn't reached UK yet!

Exciting times ahead for cold lovers

 

Well, I really hope you're right about that but despite the often repeated mantra in the other thread;  "It's all going to kick off in 7-10 days" (or similar) which I have been seeing for, well, at least four weeks now, the models are not showing anything other than a brief north-westerly here, or a short lived north-easterly there.  Nothing to suggest a two to three week spell of frost and snow which I think is the hallmark of any self-respecting proper winter.  The weather patterns, and especially the jet-stream, will have to make some serious u-turns pretty soon if anything prolonged and seriously snowy is going to affect the UK this winter.  Can't believe I'm writing this - it sounds like a 'winter's over' post and I have to remind myself that we still have up to two months when really cold conditions can occur, so must keep the chin up!

Edited by Sky Full
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10 minutes ago, MidnightSnow said:

That's the good thing about having low expectations. I'm honestly not fussed about having a once in a generation winter. I couldn't care less about the records / numbers in the slightest to be honest. Snow is snow in my book and I think we all have a decent chance of seeing some soon.

 

Agreed, it appears we're heading for a colder period and there will probably be some snowy interludes, although even with my limited understanding it still all looks rather messy at the moment.

Edited by wrightc23
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22 minutes ago, wrightc23 said:

Agreed, it appears we're heading for a colder period and there will probably be some snowy interludes, although even with my limited understanding it still all looks rather messy at the moment.

Just looks like standard Winter fare for UK in next couple of weeks. NW incursions; cold(ish) air giving snow at times up North esp on higher ground, with cold rain or sleet down South. Not convinced we'll get a really cold blast from NE or East. Worst weather conditions will remain in Central&Eastern Europe aka normal Euro Winter, albeit with added severity 'over there'.

Just my opinion.

Edited by Bristle boy
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4 hours ago, V for Very Cold said:

Is anyone else getting nervous? Lol

Im busy reading the model posts and there is a perceptible belief something impressive is coming.... but have we been here before and it all comes crashing down? So much to play for!

thoughts please.....😀

I love weather & the extremes with in it, but I've become disenchanted with model watching. It's becoming boring watching the inevitable downgrades/upgrades/downgrades/upgrades/downgrades across all suites. I hate the way GFS/UKMO and some lesser models show epic charts, but then comes the ECM which doesn't show great charts, but wait! in the morning GFS and ECM show great charts, but UKMO doesn't, then later in the day they all show great charts only for them all to downgrade in the morning. 

It's the inevitable problem of living on this island at the edge of the Atlantic.

My only hope that we will see great cold Winters is, that it has happened before. 

Edited by SteveB
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Looks to be a very mild first half to winter, yes the second half will be cooler but that's not exactly difficult with how mild it's been. Of course strength of sun comes into play as we enter Feb so it won't feel that cold anyway unless it's cloudy or we pull in really cold continental uppers which is looking unlikely. 

To me the peak period for winter is late November to late January when the days are at their shortest even then it's felt very pleasant in calm sunny conditions on the rare days it's been sunny. Been out in the countryside alot past month and the amount of insects i've seen is incredible. All enjoying the very mild conditions, you really notice how warm it's been this winter when being active.

Edited by Eugene
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Nothing special showing in the charts still for the South. Let’s see what the 12z runs bring and whether they can achieve any kind of HLB!

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3 hours ago, snowblizzard said:

It's the downside of living on an island with a massive expanse of relatively warm water to our West!

 

 

I always find that argument very tenuous. It hasn’t stopped winter in many a year gone by. Keep in mind that the beaches of southern Italy and Greece face the Mediterranean hot tub lol.

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It may be a quiet day on the boards.....but I’ve seen the phrase “father Xmas on acid” AND one of the mods mention a whole month of cold!!! 🤣

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9 minutes ago, V for Very Cold said:

It may be a quiet day on the boards.....but I’ve seen the phrase “father Xmas on acid” AND one of the mods mention a whole month of cold!!! 🤣

you have to be on acid to break into people's houses and give them stuff instead of taking what you can:santa-emoji:

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Not much to write home about so far looking at the outputs. Would take a miraculous change in output to get anything noteworthy! 

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