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Model banter returns

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2 minutes ago, jethro said:

Thanks. So it's a law of averages thing rather than a specific 'not happening because the purple blob can't go there, unless there's a green blob over there, and the pink blob disappears' sort of problem?

Yes - perfectly put ! 

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1 minute ago, cobbett said:

Yes - perfectly put ! 

That really is the limit of my understanding. Weather models and deciphering them is merely an adult version of algebra to me, that didn't (and doesn't make any sense to me) and I can still hear my Maths Master's frustration echoing in my ears now, especially if I ask the clever grown ups in the MOD thread.

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Dont worry Jethro - now is the time to contact Wandsworth Council and book a pitch for your  Minestrone Soup and Jacket Potato stall at Putney (on the Thames). Those charts suggest to me that this time it is coming!

Trust me there will be Mammoths roaming on the Somerset Levels by the end of February! 😄

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The para 00z does indeed look very good this morning, from the 21st Jan onwards its all snow, with the cold actually intensifying by the 26th Jan, the UK would likely be in chaos by then. The point is that snow is incredibly difficult to forecast even 48 hours before so such details such as where it snows and where it don't at Day 12 should be taken with a big pinch of salt, the trend is there for colder, but who gets snow wont be known for sure for a long time yet.

But If the para came close to verifying, well it could snow almost anywhere in the UK, and there would be lots of it too. Anyone missing out would be very unlucky indeed.

gfs-2-288.png

gfs-2-300-1.png

gfs-2-312.png

gfs-2-360.png

gfs-2-372.png

gfs-1-384.png

Edited by snowray

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39 minutes ago, egret said:

Dont worry Jethro - now is the time to contact Wandsworth Council and book a pitch for your  Minestrone Soup and Jacket Potato stall at Putney (on the Thames). Those charts suggest to me that this time it is coming!

Trust me there will be Mammoths roaming on the Somerset Levels by the end of February! 😄

Oh lawdy, there's enough weird stuff in Glastonbury already. On the plus side it would give all those folk tripping on chemicals, dreams they'd never forget 😂

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15 minutes ago, jethro said:

Oh lawdy, there's enough weird stuff in Glastonbury already. On the plus side it would give all those folk tripping on chemicals, dreams they'd never forget 😂

Lol, very true. I'd hate to think what chemicals would be found in any Glasto fatberg.

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Does anybody know which way the grebes are facing?🐦

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Dont mention Weather Balloons  i did once but.................😀

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It does make me smile when, fairly regularly, apparently the models 'scream' this or that.

I've been in the main computer room at Bracknell( pre Exeter days), they need a lot of care to stop overheating and are a bit noisy but I have never heard them scream, ever!

Edited by johnholmes
usual spelling errors

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29 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

It does make me smile when, fairly regularly, apparently the models 'scream' this or that.

I've been in the main computer room at Bracknell( pre Exeter days), they need a lot of care to stop overheating and are a bit noisy but I have never heard them scream, ever!

Do they have feelings? So many people seem to have feelings that go outside of what the models say. I've got a feeling that at the end of January people are going to have a feeling about the middle of Feb, at which point they'll have a feeling about late Feb and you can guess what they'll have a feeling about in Late Feb!

Edited by Danielvn

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4 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

Does anybody know which way the grebes are facing?🐦

Just saw a little grebe while walking my dogs. He spent most of his time under water.

Does that tell us anything?

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3 minutes ago, egret said:

Just saw a little grebe while walking my dogs. He spent most of his time under water.

Does that tell us anything?

Oh and I should add I was training them to retrieve across the river at the time - I suppose that might be called a Controlled Run.

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Met office probability for colder spell now end of January. That’s just over a month later than they originally stated. Big fail for them anyway you paint it 

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4 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

Does anybody know which way the grebes are facing?🐦

Not a clue but I can tell you the sodding squirrels have dug up and stolen every bulb, in every pot at work and they've never done that before, not even in 2010. It can only mean one thing, another 1947 is just around the corner :whistling:

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2 minutes ago, jethro said:

Not a clue but I can tell you the sodding squirrels have dug up and stolen every bulb, in every pot at work and they've never done that before, not even in 2010. It can only mean one thing, another 1947 is just around the corner :whistling:

It's all Knocker's fault!🐿️

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6 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

It's all Knocker's fault!🐿️

Sidney has a lot to answer for.

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25 minutes ago, jethro said:

Not a clue but I can tell you the sodding squirrels have dug up and stolen every bulb, in every pot at work and they've never done that before, not even in 2010. It can only mean one thing, another 1947 is just around the corner :whistling:

A 1947 will happen again one Winter, why not this one???

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3 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

A 1947 will happen again one Winter, why not this one???

No reason at all in my opinion but as I haven't a clue how it all works, you'd best not listen to me. Personally speaking I find the idea exciting and terrifying in equal measure, would be fun to experience it in many ways, but as a self employed gardener, I'd be SERIOUSLY skint - that doesn't fill me with joy.

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40 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

A 1947 will happen again one Winter, why not this one???

So if you say 1947, 1963, 1987, 2009/10 thats about 1 really severe winter every 20 years give or take so absolutely it could happen again - when is a different matter altogether !

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1 minute ago, warrenb said:

I am saying early Feb as I am in South Africa until the 27th and want to be back for the fun

That's if your flight can land, among the drifts we'll have in place by then. Okay, slightly overoptimistic here, but one never knows.

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5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Jeez - I just realised I have spent the day checking everything against  (and commenting earlier) on yesterday mornings clusters !!

 

You could now be on my list! 😀😀

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2 hours ago, Shunter said:

Met office probability for colder spell now end of January. That’s just over a month later than they originally stated. Big fail for them anyway you paint it 

Quite frankly it is not just Meto moving the cold&snow 'goalposts' this Winter; plenty of NW's own community in that pos. Luckily for me i sussed out years ago who to follow for true reflection of weather future.

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1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

could it be a 14th Jan 2013 dumping for you shaky? got none here, but was rewarded on the Friday

archives-2013-1-14-12-0.png

I got blasted on the following sunday night with 4 inches.

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1 minute ago, shaky said:

What a dump that was mate!!was meant to turn to rain in the end for the east midlands but in the end stayed as snow all the way and we got pummeled!!lorries were jacknifed on the a6 aswell and this was 1pm in the afternoon!!brilliant memories!!oh and then the beast of a slider delivered 15 -20cms of snow here on leicester 4 or 5 days later!!

Aye got the one on 18th, 15cms or so

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we even got innches from that storm on jan2013 here on the SE  coast,schools had to shut after opening ,causing chaos for parents and fun for kids.

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