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And back in the u k most of us haven’t seen a flake since winter began.Lets all head to Austria

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Just for clarification there is no snow showing in the models for low levels in England for the next 10 days. Maybe some lying snow in hills and mountains above 1000ft. 

I don’t see anything positive in the models in respect to cold weather, just cooler incursions. 

Still got until around 22nd Jan for changes before I write this winter off in respect to snow!

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Weird how this gfs run ties in with the bbc forecasts for after the weekend with much colder weather from the NW ,as gfs shows.They use the gfs now ?

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24 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Yes, but in late December, the outlook was for the cold to become established by mid January, yet here we are still chasing charts from 10+ days away.

I’d ask for your money back if I were you.

Dreadful service.

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3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

No positive spin from me I’m afraid, all goes Pete tong in FI. Fingers crossed this is a rogue run and the more respected GFSp looks different...

4C72A99E-CC3D-4A2D-8AEB-6A5F0652CAD8.png

BDDEB4E4-3188-4C1F-8B7E-D6395D742890.png

Those charts sum up the absolute hell that is being a snow lover in the UK and Ireland - just look at that cold pool to the North, East and West!

We are always scraping the barrel for leftover scraps. 

Oh to have been born in Scandinavia. ❄️

Surely we will hit the Jackpot at some point this Winter/early Spring? ☃️

We all just need to keep the faith and hopefully our luck will change. 🎅

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5 minutes ago, DCee said:

Just for clarification there is no snow showing in the models for low levels in England for the next 10 days. Maybe some lying snow in hills and mountains above 1000ft. 

I don’t see anything positive in the models in respect to cold weather, just cooler incursions. 

Still got until around 22nd Jan for changes before I write this winter off in respect to snow!

Really?? So winter ends on the 22nd of January now lol

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17 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Turning into another very snowy run   day 8 onwards   

Problem is, it's always "day 8 onwards"

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4 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Weird how this gfs run ties in with the bbc forecasts for after the weekend with much colder weather from the NW ,as gfs shows.They use the gfs now ?

You didn’t see the last three ecm runs ??

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8 minutes ago, DCee said:

Just for clarification there is no snow showing in the models for low levels in England for the next 10 days. Maybe some lying snow in hills and mountains above 1000ft. 

I don’t see anything positive in the models in respect to cold weather, just cooler incursions. 

Still got until around 22nd Jan for changes before I write this winter off in respect to snow!

all depends what you mean by low levels   snow line down to around 100 metres in the south before 240h    with the 528 dam line to the  soutwest    anyway  it will all change in the next few days always does. 

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Winter's over THE END :whistling:

Paul has his finger on the pulse this morning lol, posts disappearing quicker than the Arsenal defence :oldrofl:

Edited by karlos1983
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march is the new winter month,so 6 weeks till winter starts 🤣😂❄️

Edited by SLEETY
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As noted many times before, this thread is for model banter, not moaning about other members, moaning about the moderation etc.

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Bit of a turnaround since yday. Model implosion - no surprise really. Dont trust them past 5 days. Too many weather variables in play for UK. Rarely simple. #expectationmanagement

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13 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

march is the new winter month,so 6 weeks till winter starts 🤣😂❄️

Many a word spoken in  in jest and all that, but the coldest month of the the last 8 years was a March.  There can't have been too many occasions in UK history, if indeed any at all, with a point in time where it could be said the coldest month in a period of 8 years was a "non winter" month!  

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best snow has been in march since dec10 ,what is it with the U.K. in getting cold spells in the winter months.Imagine how cold it would have been if the beast from the east last march had hit mid January

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As interesting as it can be in March its no good down here for anything over a day or so. As soon as the sun appears its gone

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21 minutes ago, ptow said:

As interesting as it can be in March its no good down here for anything over a day or so. As soon as the sun appears its gone

where's here?

2013, April 1st was an ice day here so whist day length does have a bearing, so does the nature of the airmass. We'd had sub zero or at least v cold for about a fortnight by that point.

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Yeah but i’d rather see one heavy snowfall in March even if it does melt quickly.No decent snowfall for anyone as we head into the last 3rd of january,even the highlands have hardly any.

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1 hour ago, Bristle boy said:

. Dont trust them past 5 days. Too many weather variables in play for UK. 

I don't agree with that. When he have a positive AO/NAO the models are very accurate up to ten days and sometimes well beyond, it's only when something like an SSW is thrown into the mix that accuracy drops.

One thing for sure though, I think every long range Winter forecast I have seen has gone bust.

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January has been woeful of recent times...2013 the last fairly cold spell but still time to get our hopes up and then dashed 🙂

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29 minutes ago, JeffC said:

where's here?

2013, April 1st was an ice day here so whist day length does have a bearing, so does the nature of the airmass. We'd had sub zero or at least v cold for about a fortnight by that point.

Generally snow falling in March is not going to hang about too long. I did see snow fall in early March 2013 that was still visible some way into April, but that was a legacy of the coldest March for 50 years and I've no doubt, the coldest first 10 days of April for a long long time as well.   But that's not the norm and remembering that it can stick around to that degree is like remembering that Winter 1947 didn't start until the last third of January.  It's possible to get the same, but highly improbable!

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11 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

I don't agree with that. When he have a positive AO/NAO the models are very accurate up to ten days and sometimes well beyond, it's only when something like an SSW is thrown into the mix that accuracy drops.

One thing for sure though, I think every long range Winter forecast I have seen has gone bust.

Yes fair enough. 

Loads of busts. Except Spanish meto for Iberia. How did they know that AZH/ mid-Atlantic ridge (take your pick re what one calls it) would hang around?

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2 hours ago, karlos1983 said:

Really?? So winter ends on the 22nd of January now lol

In a word, yes. If the trend doesn’t change by the end of January you can count on the continuation of HP and cold zonal continuing into February. I don’t include March as it’s mostly Spring and no good for those away from the north, I certainly don’t want cold then.

The SSW simply hasn’t delivered this time round, fingers crossed the models will pick up something before or soon after 22nd Jan but as things stand it’s looking less than 50:50. 

The long range ENS could prove to be useless and goes to show ow difficult forescasting is. 

The trends shows us the way and the trend is no cold for the UK. 

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