Model banter returns

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, The Eagle said:

 

LOL..

Well its only my opinion- and i don't have that much money to lose

I wouldn't be suprised if there is a spread @96 on EC ens..

[The Eagle]

1 minute ago, snowblind said:

Ok, I'm going to do some mega straw clutching here. Didn't I read somewhere that the EC op runs at a higher resolution than the other models? And that this sometimes causes it issues with seeing things that, in reality, just won't be there. If that's the case then it should be at the top of its ensembles, if not a mild outlier from day four. Once it gets more actual observational data fed in it should begin to correct itself. So we should see corrections this evening and tomorrow so that it should be fully back onboard by Monday.  Or have I just started another conspiracy theory?

[Roger J Smith]

I don't want the Euro,

I just want some new snow;

I don't want the Icon,

it's too warm and wet mon ...

CMA me baby, CMA me baby

GFS me too, favourite colour's blue ...

like a GEM. 

like a GEM. 

LIKE A GEM. 

(ahem)

[Deep Snow please]

It's just one run folks. Lets see how the rest of todays runs pan out. No point calling anything until the 18z at the very least.

[Frosty.]

This made me burst out laughing when I saw it last night..same applies to the 00z...ouch!!

[Bristawl Si]

"That ECM" returns a few years on. Boom turns to bust overnight. Weather Model output...eh...fickle as ........

[Guest]

As I expected, the Models are slowly backing away from any cold in January, too much energy to our West for any block or ridge to hold. 

Cold rain followed by interludes of HP is the firm horse into February: cold zonal. 

 

[Deep Snow please]

2 minutes ago, DCee said:

As I expected, the Models are slowly backing away from any cold in January, too much energy to our West for any block or ridge to hold. 

Cold rain followed by interludes of HP is the firm horse into February: cold zonal. 

 

Sorry what? The ECM shows a move away from sustained cold, the GFS and UKMO are still holding steady.

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

Sorry what? The ECM shows a move away from sustained cold, the GFS and UKMO are still holding steady.

They will likely follow soon. Sustained cold was always an outside chance, at least for January. Can’t see anything changing into Feb either.

[snowrye]

I have an immense feeling of impending doom today,I do hope im wrong,but I still haven't forgiven the ecm for what it done a couple of years ago,and it is trying it's best to annoy me yet again,boom chart consistency ,with snow and north easterlies,now its marginal,with south westerlies showing,meanwhile the whole of europe is buried,pah

[Guest]

This winter is panning out to be European cold, with the exception of the UK. The energy spilling out of the states puts and end to any hopes of sustained cold.

The SSW and it’s wind reversal is simply overridden by that energy - at least for the very West of Europe.

[Bristawl Si]

BBC weather still going for snow on Monday/Tuesday for much of UK (forecast now on BBC1).

Edited January 19, 2019 by Bristle boy

[Jason74]

No point in getting too downbeat (and I'm not surpised by the ECM backing away from severe cold) as the weather will do what it's going to do! I'm sure there will be cold spells (with snow and ice for some) with milder interludes between now and spring. As far as a severe cold spell is concerned. Well, as we know, they are always difficult to get to these shores, anyway. 

[Scandinavian High.]

I really can’t see meto 6-30 days being incorrect this is only 6 day out there talking cold and snow.. ecm got be wrong..

[Guest]

And there you have it, GFS following on. 

[Deep Snow please]

I should learn not to tell people about upcoming snowmaggedon's until there at T+0 looking increasingly like a wintry showers scenario for Tuesday and then back to the dross. Yet again the mods get everybody all excited and crush our dreams in a few runs near the time.  

[Disco_Stu]

Love the way that the 'knowledgeable' ones with their 'BOOM' charts in the model thread disappear when it all goes pear shape 

[edinburgh_1992]

Awful ECMWF, awful GFS06. So disappointing, especially when signs were so promising. Could've forgiven the weather had the winter outlook been showing mild and wet throughout. Instead it's been a compromise between high pressure (very mild) and mild, wet atlantic. Barely any signs of cold apart from the odd brief northerly. 

Basically I feel that this winter is a write-off. Yes I know there is still the second half of February and march, but I hardly consider that winter since any snow and cold is usually short lasted. Even during the beast, when the strong sun came out, snow melted away quickly. Now is the best time for cold and let's face facts, it's not going to happen

[Eastbourneguy]

Come on ladies and gents  

The only significant cold spell I can remember that was modelled ‘relatively’ stress free for coldies was 2010, we should be used to this banter.

However, I do find it hilarious that some were claiming the ICON to be be chosen one that foresaw this mighty downgrade, disregarding the GFS. Now they have flipped on 06zs(ICON colder, GFS warmer) and the same people claiming game over from a completely different model showing the ‘warmer’ solution.

I do feel like when the ‘big 3’ all show cold but different synoptic evolutions, we need to stop convincing ourselves of model consensus which just isn’t true. 

Yes, extreme cold in the next 10 days seems less likely but game over?? See you at 3:30

 

[Hodgheg]

Ah well, back to the real world. Who am i kidding, will be back for the 12z

[Johnp]

Seems we're not allowed humour amongst the tears in the model thread, so here's Feb's "Dyer run"

[cheshire snow]

16 minutes ago, Disco_Stu said:

Love the way that the 'knowledgeable' ones with their 'BOOM' charts in the model thread disappear when it all goes pear shape 

On the flip side where have all the let's say mild lovers been over the last few days?

Only to come back today with all there told you so posts.

C.S

[sundog]

 

[egret]

A quick visit to the MOD thread and it seems the New Year party has moved on. We had a round of Blind Man's Buff earlier and sat down to the table for Jellies and Trifles yesterday, but it looked as though that might get a bit messy so I popped outside for a breath of fresh air.

Just returned indoors to find that the games have started again. This time its pin the tail on the donkey. This one is such great fun so I must stay and watch!

Taxi has been booked for the 27th as we don't want to get stuck in the snow after that.

[sunnijim]

21 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Seems we're not allowed humour amongst the tears in the model thread, so here's Feb's "Dyer run"

Depends who posts the humour  

And of course there are those without much humour in their souls at any time of day sadly!

Would rather the one line bickering that infests the thread be stamped out properly.