Model banter returns

[Light Without Heat]

ooooshhh...come to daddy 

[Timmytour]

Sick of a run of recent mild winters, last year I went skiing for the first time in 25 years.  We went to Austria and the week we went was the end of February. although it was mighty cold that week, we didn't see too much in the way of snowfall and even got a little bit of rain right at the end. the snow action was back in the UK!  I missed the best week of winter weather for several years while I was away.

This year I'm going skiing to Austria again, at the start of February. I can't help noticing the models showing a more north easterly element to the cold out at that range.  So this time I'm thinking, not only could the UK be snowier than I find Austria to be again, this time it could be colder as well! 

Really looking forward to the fun and games ahead....always with the sense of caution that some of us on this forum will have stamped onto our DNA through past experiences of let downs in the past!  But a part of me will be a little annoyed if it turns out that, for the second year running, I've missed out on the best of the winter weather that went the way of the UK!

 

[Djdazzle]

Is it just me who seems to base their daily routine around the model times?

[V for Very Cold]

oh the amount of excitement in the model thread is  quite uplifting lol

 

 

[Snipper]

Anyone with experience been able to sort out an understated review of the current setup that ignores wishful thinking?

A major cold event would be interesting and snow fascinating to watch but it would cause horrendous problems for many.

I do ponder how some on the forums are able to do their job that their employer is paying for. Can’t all be retired.

 

[Deep Snow please]

I hate to pull out the major ramps but it does seem that even the stonewalled, "it doesn't matter til T+0" and "it can always be downgraded til it's on your doorstep" brigaded are beginning to get excited about the prospects that lie ahead. But to be honest even if things go wrong here some of these charts are a pleasure to watch roll out regardless of whether they vary. Have we ever seen a cold pool of this sort before?

 

The first snow has fallen today of the winter today, much of the country is now in cold air, people up and down the country are digging through the draws to find a pair of gloves and accumulating for their heating bills. But could it be time for getting sleds out and skiing to work, with an easterly tapping into that cold pool the UK will be closed for business regardless of other things than weather:

 

Look at that cold pool;

 

[knocker]

The METO update the PM mentions the possibility of a mayor snow storm next weekend. Surely the gfs hasn't spotted it?

[lorenzo]

[Cloud 10]

To sum up the 12z output so far...

 

 

Great to see the UKMO onboard now.

[moorlander]

Met and beeb are keeping stum, on what is to come. Wonder why?

[Snipper]

16 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

It would be really helpful when posting like this actually gave an analysis. Those posting such things might know what it is all about but in this thread a candid review is welcome. 

Edited January 18, 2019 by Snipper

[JoeShmoe]

I dont want to look in the MO thread tomorrow am if it downgrades !

[MattStoke]

Got to laugh. Spent so much time looking at computer models for cold and snow further ahead and the weather does this to catch me out! It is belting it down with unexpected snow here.

There’s a lesson here, people. Don’t get hung up on the finer details of the model output as this setup could deliver many surprises in the coming weeks.

[AWD]

Really bored of this winter.

Very little "active weather".  Just a bucket load of potential that just fizzles out into meh crap when said potential hits the reliable timeframe.

Personally, for my location, I'm not expecting anything snowy for the next week or so at least.  Maybe a bit of sleet if I'm really lucky on Tuesday but that's about it.

This winter is fast becoming the "day 10 potential" winter.

Bring on the summer thunderstorms.  Fastly turning into a summer lover rather than a winter lover.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Absolutely unreal EC, unsure now of cold blast, big guns on model thread rate EC as top model, yes still snow chances tue/wed, but freeze is off, nervy 00Z's in morning

GFS is slagged off by 'big guns' so confidence in a freeze lowered big style

[The Eagle]

[The Eagle]

6 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

The ecm has the dreaded hump of doom over the north sea. This stops the cold uppers in their tracks to our east. This has happened so many times in the last 15 years. Why? 

Mountains.

[Gadje]

Pavlovs model readers. Each variation gets maximum response. Overall picture? who cares just feed me.

[Deep Snow please]

Probably in the realms of ramping so will put in here, but is this outlined path one that is possible as the modelling currently goes. Low traverses over UK hooking up with the North American cold, we return to E/NE'ly flow tapping into Northern European cold pool and then we get a Westerly tapping into the cold back out over North America etc....

 

Would be a pretty cool progression, but what are the realistic chances of it?

 

4 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

How about this for Holy Grail.

 

First one is the low tracking over the UK, which would then leave the cold pool in the east to tap into. At which point we could tap back into the low and existing cold pool for a 3rd wave of cold. 

 

 

 

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Absolutely dyer - look at the shift east of the slider on a mean at only 90 hours - gutted - absolutely gutted!

This doin' me nut in! 

 

WMC starting to shape up

Edited January 18, 2019 by RAIN RAIN RAIN

[Bristawl Si]

So ECM throws a slight wobbly. Hmm....has it done that before?

So first 'it' (cold,snow) was mid-Jan, then late Jan....now it's Feb. Hmm...pattern there.

[john mac]

Could there be less info in tomorrow mornings runs because it’s a Saturday?

[Bristawl Si]

So is the 'new' 1947 postponed?

[Hull snow]

Why can’t we ever get cold very cold and snowy in the uk with no fuss always breaks down last min 

[Met4Cast]

Just now, karlos1983 said:

Look on the plus side, the Det won’t be a cold outlier

It might be for the middle East.. America gets absolutely pasted