Model banter returns

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

What did people expect ? There was always a chance of more energy going into northern arm of the jet especially with all the cold air pouring out of N America!

Until output is within 72hrs don’t discount the less good output!

Edited January 16, 2019 by prolongedSnowLover

[Borei]

The elephant in the room:

Confirmation bias.

 

If there is a cold spell it will be attributed to teleconnections and SSW. 

If there isn't it will be attributed to the fact that SSWs do not guarantee UK cold. 

 

But there will be no causal analysis. It will be taken as a given. 

[chris78]

I very much agree with people in here and the model thread telling people not to be too negative when a run a shows a less favorable outcome....perfectly sensible advice....however, the same people advising caution with the bad runs, happily post ecstatic reactions to the favorable ones.    So, before you tell someone that its only one run and advise them to stop being negative, think to yourself, do I ever get exited about good runs, if the answer is yes, shut up and dont be a hypocrite, if its ok for you to post, BOOM or EPIC about one run, its ok for other members to be negative about another. 

[Ali1977]

Things defo going a little pear shaped, against all signals which is strange. Maybe just a delay in proceedings !! 

[SLEETY]

44 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

What did people expect ? There was always a chance of more energy going into northern arm of the jet especially with all the cold air pouring out of N America!

Until output is within 72hrs don’t discount the less good output!

When cold weather is shown in the models  I find it's best to discount it till  it reaches, if it reaches  72 hours then you won't get dissapointed, when it more often than not fails to come off, in this poxy climate of ours, in the winter months

[JoeShmoe]

1 hour ago, Borei said:

The elephant in the room:

Confirmation bias.

 

If there is a cold spell it will be attributed to teleconnections and SSW. 

If there isn't it will be attributed to the fact that SSWs do not guarantee UK cold. 

 

But there will be no causal analysis. It will be taken as a given. 

This 100%

Plus whatever model shows cold is of course the best verifying and the ones that arent are terrible, have missing data are all over the place

Also i note when it goes bad the soothsayers who whip the MO into a frenzy  - disappear - with no analysis as to why they were incorrect

People never ever learn, like watching lemmings run off a cliff

[weather_it_will]

It's the same every Winter.

It never pays to get carried away by one run, especially when any possible decent snow event was 9-days away!

Even if the charts are showing snow at T+24, you can't be sure it will actually happen.

Plus the usual comments that the charts must be wrong, as they don't show what you want.

Edited January 16, 2019 by 'ColdIsBest'

[Jason74]

1 hour ago, chris78 said:

I very much agree with people in here and the model thread telling people not to be too negative when a run a shows a less favorable outcome....perfectly sensible advice....however, the same people advising caution with the bad runs, happily post ecstatic reactions to the favorable ones.    So, before you tell someone that its only one run and advise them to stop being negative, think to yourself, do I ever get exited about good runs, if the answer is yes, shut up and dont be a hypocrite, if its ok for you to post, BOOM or EPIC about one run, its ok for other members to be negative about another. 

To be honest, feel it is better to focus more on the experienced, sensible, and level headed posters such as GP, Chio, Nick, and BA. There are more who are thorough in their analysis and concentrate more on trends than every individual run. It's also best, in situations such as these, not to look too far ahead beyond 4 to 5 days; as even then there can be uncertainty. 

[frosty ground]

31 minutes ago, JoeShmoe said:

This 100%

Plus whatever model shows cold is of course the best verifying and the ones that arent are terrible, have missing data are all over the place

Also i note when it goes bad the soothsayers who whip the MO into a frenzy  - disappear - with no analysis as to why they were incorrect

People never ever learn, like watching lemmings run off a cliff

Then you get the "i told you so" brigade quickly following the same lemmings of the cliff only they have a self righteous sense of self satisfaction that they went last.

You also have the "Name calling Brigade" calling people that use MJO and so forth Soothsayers becasue they don't understand it, even with the confirmation bias that we all suffer from I find those comments are the worst

Edited January 16, 2019 by frosty ground

[frosty ground]

Yesterday we had Game Over (Met Office forecast thread) today we had 16 mins to save winter (Mod Thread) (which didn't happen) so winter is over twice in 24 hours.

So what we looking for in Spring people? 

[Bristawl Si]

Living off the scraps is the theme. That's if we're lucky. 

And i'm starting to take posted tweets with a warehouse load of salt. Most tweeters (is that a correct expression?) are just posting data what many post on here. One day the tweet reads positive, the next day it has changed. Futile exercise.

Lesson - dont look beyond 5 days.

[eddy88888]

i think the people in the mad thread should leave it to the real experts no disrespect its just they always go and predict the weather too far in advance and get themselves let down re the cold weather and snow, the weather patterns change every 15 mins or so. 

Edited January 16, 2019 by eddy88888
spelling

[Mokidugway]

9 minutes ago, eddy88888 said:

i think the people in the mad thread should leave it to the real experts no disrespect its just they always go and predict the weather too far in advance and get themselves let down re the cold weather and snow, the weather patterns change every 15 mins or so. 

That would be interesting ,about 4 true experts  the rest are clowns

[eddy88888]

1 minute ago, Mokidugway said:

That would be interesting ,about 4 true experts  the rest are clowns

Lol 

[Bristawl Si]

10 minutes ago, eddy88888 said:

i think the people in the mad thread should leave it to the real experts no disrespect its just they always go and predict the weather too far in advance and get themselves let down re the cold weather and snow, the weather patterns change every 15 mins or so. 

There are some truly knowledgeable people in there to be fair but the majority just follow - it's the herd mentality associated with us, humans.

Twitterland is where people reading tweets should carry out their own due diligence. Twitter breeds 15-minute-of-fame merchants pasting copied info and then claiming to be 'experts'.

[Sky Full]

43 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Yesterday we had Game Over (Met Office forecast thread) today we had 16 mins to save winter (Mod Thread) (which didn't happen) so winter is over twice in 24 hours.

So what we looking for in Spring people? 

DAFFODILS!     

[DanDorsetUK]

13 minutes ago, eddy88888 said:

i think the people in the mad thread should leave it to the real experts no disrespect its just they always go and predict the weather too far in advance and get themselves let down re the cold weather and snow, the weather patterns change every 15 mins or so. 

I've said time and time again if people just stick to the 0z every day it would be more accurate and realsistic than going by extreme pub run solutions. One thing ive learnt over the years go with the model that shows the less extreme solution in the 0z! Then if that theme continues in 0z runs great then then start ramping if that particular weather event deserves a ramp. We have not had any extreme solutions in the 0z all winter. And reflects the pattern all we now have and see. For some weird reason people rave about the later day runs when in reality they get watered down nearer the time when the 0z has shown this the majority of the time anyway.

[Frosty_wsm]

The gfs crewe, anyone noticed they only start posting in the mod thread when the other major models show any sign of a  movement to the gfs, other times you don't see them, I see shaky commented about that so it's not only me noticing it! All the 'I told you so' or 'as I said' comments are tiresome and it ruins the thread imo. 

Hoping for a better 12z set later, if only because the mod thread is great to read through when the place is buzzing because of good charts appearing. 

[Methuselah]

8 minutes ago, Smartie said:

The gfs crewe, anyone noticed they only start posting in the mod thread when the other major models show any sign of a  movement to the gfs, other times you don't see them, I see shaky commented about that so it's not only me noticing it! All the 'I told you so' or 'as I said' comments are tiresome and it ruins the thread imo. 

Hoping for a better 12z set later, if only because the mod thread is great to read through when the place is buzzing because of good charts appearing. 

Thank goodness they don't exist then? Phew!

GFS okay, for next Tuesday? 

 

[cobbett]

Flatlining -Nurse ! 

 

[Snipper]

4 hours ago, SteveB said:

I don't know about anyone else, but this model watching in Winter is getting boring. Same old crap year in year out. It's like self flagellation, looking at the charts every six hours and seeing the same fails each time, but we carry on regardless in the vain hope that some of the good charts actually happen.

Very much ground hog day. As most major events come almost out of the blue why bother to look at models that won’t happen several weeks ahead. 

I like the mods thread. Gives me a good sadistic feeling. 

[snowangel32]

I said to my husband that we will have a snowless winter after he read the extreme paper headlines. I never thought for one minute i would be right. Reverse psychology lol. But after today's models i fear it might happen.

[weirpig]

8 minutes ago, snowangel32 said:

I said to my husband that we will have a snowless winter after he read the extreme paper headlines. I never thought for one minute i would be right. Reverse psychology lol. But after today's models i fear it might happen.

Nah Snowy we will get a bit at least in the next few days 

[snowangel32]

33 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Nah Snowy we will get a bit at least in the next few days 

Maybe Wierpig need a significant shift west and South but still hoping for a flake and not the Chocolate variety.

[FENDER.]

Just looks like a fairly normal winter period, bit chilly at times, bit of snow possible over high ground in the north, otherwise nothing much to get excited about.   after all the SSW hype, its rather a let down.