Model banter returns

[jethro]

44 minutes ago, Easton Luna Boys said:

Or the Atlantic trough could be the disruptor - looks like colder air filtering down (for a time at least) yes, but it looks fairly slack. It isn't screaming long fetch Northerly with tight packing isobars. Will be interesting to see just how cold that air will be and how far down the UK it's effects will be felt. E.g. I wouldn't bet against 8c and sunny skies, say south of the M4 corridor!  

Oh shush. We had a summer campaign down here, we've removed the M4 and replaced it with an enormous funnel.

[Weather roller-coaster]

4 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

GFS is a mess...

A very cold mess...

And it still manages to deliver the goods

( for some reason I can't upload the precip type charts but they show copious amounts of snow...)

uksnowrisk.webp

This country would grind to a halt if that came off

[Methuselah]

The model I've got inside my head tells me Smarch is going to be stonking!

[Chertseystreamer79]

6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

This was my post SSW model from Novembers Winter forecast

Now looking a good match...

I'm bowing down....

 

From a 3rd year lurker....

 

 

[Skyraker]

5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

This was my post SSW model from Novembers Winter forecast

Now looking a good match...

Tea leaves on form there Steve....

but... Ghandi ? … Really ?

[cobbett]

21 hours ago, cobbett said:

I think If I was to follow any weather person on Twitter Liam Dutton would be near the bottom - seems to tweet only about tabloid cold scare stories and not very insightful , towing the party line  5-7 day weather ahead musings which you could get from the beeb.

Come on Liam go out on a limb - what do YOU think will happen towards end Jan

Thanks Liam - very informative 

 

[tight isobar]

Gets ready 2 hit the BOOM BUTTON..

Stella vision!!!

[Guest]

Firstly thankyou to Nick Finnis and the other Forecasters who do such a great job and provide informative and detailed forecasts on this platform. In response the this thread/topic regarding models from 7th January, I have an opinion which is as follows:

While the science and the colourful models and the supercomputers that generate them are impressive, folk who live/work close to the land such as farmers are worth listening to. They observe and remember patterns. Generally speaking, if there hasnt been a major cold spell or snowfall before now, there wont be one this winter. The earth is too warm and most precip will fall as rain or sleet. 

So much of this topic is 'wishcasting' not forecasting because its based on the models that show what people want. If one looks for it, I am sure one can find a model to indicate any scenario. So I will stay away from wishcasting and use my common sense. I am a common sense forecaster and common sense says stop getting exited - it will all end in warm (far from frozen) tears.

 

[Guest]

8 minutes ago, nwextremeweather said:

Firstly thankyou to Nick Finnis and the other Forecasters who do such a great job and provide informative and detailed forecasts on this platform. In response the this thread/topic regarding models from 7th January, I have an opinion which is as follows:

While the science and the colourful models and the supercomputers that generate them are impressive, folk who live/work close to the land such as farmers are worth listening to. They observe and remember patterns. Generally speaking, if there hasnt been a major cold spell or snowfall before now, there wont be one this winter. The earth is too warm and most precip will fall as rain or sleet. 

So much of this topic is 'wishcasting' not forecasting because its based on the models that show what people want. If one looks for it, I am sure one can find a model to indicate any scenario. So I will stay away from wishcasting and use my common sense. I am a common sense forecaster and common sense says stop getting exited - it will all end in warm (far from frozen) tears.

 

️

[tight isobar]

19 minutes ago, nwextremeweather said:

Firstly thankyou to Nick Finnis and the other Forecasters who do such a great job and provide informative and detailed forecasts on this platform. In response the this thread/topic regarding models from 7th January, I have an opinion which is as follows:

While the science and the colourful models and the supercomputers that generate them are impressive, folk who live/work close to the land such as farmers are worth listening to. They observe and remember patterns. Generally speaking, if there hasnt been a major cold spell or snowfall before now, there wont be one this winter. The earth is too warm and most precip will fall as rain or sleet. 

So much of this topic is 'wishcasting' not forecasting because its based on the models that show what people want. If one looks for it, I am sure one can find a model to indicate any scenario. So I will stay away from wishcasting and use my common sense. I am a common sense forecaster and common sense says stop getting exited - it will all end in warm (far from frozen) tears.

 

Wow..a long time since i have read such b#####!!.

'Wishcasting' quotes..while you want to listen to old wives tales...increadable!!!!

Edit: i cant even be bothered 2 throw some science/and shutdown on this utter nonsense!!!...

Edited January 9, 2019 by tight isobar

[jethro]

9 minutes ago, nwextremeweather said:

Firstly thankyou to Nick Finnis and the other Forecasters who do such a great job and provide informative and detailed forecasts on this platform. In response the this thread/topic regarding models from 7th January, I have an opinion which is as follows:

While the science and the colourful models and the supercomputers that generate them are impressive, folk who live/work close to the land such as farmers are worth listening to. They observe and remember patterns. Generally speaking, if there hasnt been a major cold spell or snowfall before now, there wont be one this winter. The earth is too warm and most precip will fall as rain or sleet. 

So much of this topic is 'wishcasting' not forecasting because its based on the models that show what people want. If one looks for it, I am sure one can find a model to indicate any scenario. So I will stay away from wishcasting and use my common sense. I am a common sense forecaster and common sense says stop getting exited - it will all end in warm (far from frozen) tears.

 

Speaking as a farmers daughter and professional gardener with 30 years working outside all year round under my belt, I have to say (with the greatest of respect) that's utter poppycock. The only influence warm soil temps have is whether or not snow settles and even that's questionable, light snow for a couple of hours will melt, heavy or prolonged snow will cool the surface and settle. Farmers will tell folk all sorts of nonsense, it's nothing but a bit of fun to wind folk up but you really shouldn't believe them.

[Devonshire]

46 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

52 minutes ago, Skyraker said:

Tea leaves on form there Steve....

but... Ghandi ? … Really ?

Lol it was just a joke at the time 

Maybe you'll have to consider Basil Brush soon ('Boom Boom'!)

[wafjin]

18 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Wow..a long time since i have read such b#####!!.

'Wishcasting' quotes..while you want to listen to old wives tales...increadable!!!!

Edit: i cant even be bothered 2 throw some science/and shutdown on this utter nonsense!!!...

Absolutely. One of the most ridiculous posts i've seen in a long time. Wow indeed.

[Methuselah]

43 minutes ago, nwextremeweather said:

Firstly thankyou to Nick Finnis and the other Forecasters who do such a great job and provide informative and detailed forecasts on this platform. In response the this thread/topic regarding models from 7th January, I have an opinion which is as follows:

While the science and the colourful models and the supercomputers that generate them are impressive, folk who live/work close to the land such as farmers are worth listening to. They observe and remember patterns. Generally speaking, if there hasnt been a major cold spell or snowfall before now, there wont be one this winter. The earth is too warm and most precip will fall as rain or sleet. 

So much of this topic is 'wishcasting' not forecasting because its based on the models that show what people want. If one looks for it, I am sure one can find a model to indicate any scenario. So I will stay away from wishcasting and use my common sense. I am a common sense forecaster and common sense says stop getting exited - it will all end in warm (far from frozen) tears.

 

Good God. What a load of cobras! Some mothers do 'ave 'em?

Maybe you're really John Fallon!

Edited January 9, 2019 by Ed Stone

[MidnightSnow]

Any knowledgeable posters mind giving a quick summary on where we stand today? There's a lot of contradictory posts in the model thread.

[KTtom]

33 minutes ago, MidnightSnow said:

Any knowledgeable posters mind giving a quick summary on where we stand today? There's a lot of contradictory posts in the model thread.

I think you have scared everyone off by saying knowledgeable...

Not a lot changed...high pressure slowly declining next week, a period of mobile wet and windy weather likely thereafter, then a trend colder post 20th... increasingly wintry into Feb a strong possibility.

Edited January 9, 2019 by KTtom

[Mr Frost]

18 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

At the moment the model theme ( from 120 ) is more indicitive of cold zonality with the treasure at the end of the rainbow day 9/10 however UKMO indicates that the day 8> 9 blip could actually be a slider snow scenario...

Have a good one

S

 

Do you think the cold zonality will deliver for lowland North/West Scotland and England? 

Or will it be sleety pish? (Hills above 200 meters look to do well with the uppers forecast currently)

Edited January 9, 2019 by Mr Frost

[Dave Kightley]

15 years ago, today and tomorrow would of been classed as a cold spell with only 6c out side... It has been a chilly day! But as the big freeze has lifted our expectations, especially mine that it is no longer good enough..

Edited January 9, 2019 by Dave Kightley

[Nath]

I live and work close to the land (Being on the ground floor ) and what that other poster wrote is totally factually incorrect, nothing short of fake news!.  As someone close to the land, ive seen snow in March being the 1st of winter.  When was that you ask, oh yeah, this March gone     

[Easton Luna Boys]

13 minutes ago, Dave Kightley said:

15 years ago, today and tomorrow would of been classed as a cold spell with only 6c out side... It has been a chilly day! But as the big freeze has lifted our expectations, especially mine that it is no longer good enough..

??Why would it??? 6c in January would be classed as slightly below average; 15 years ago, 150 years ago or currently in the christmas pudding.

 

Edited January 9, 2019 by Easton Luna Boys
Typo

[Spah1]

46 minutes ago, booferking said:

All coming along nicely Northwestern areas prime position late next week.

For rain. 

[Easton Luna Boys]

10 minutes ago, Easton Luna Boys said:

??Why would it??? 6c in January would be classed as slightly below average; 15 years ago, 150 years ago or currently in the christmas pudding.

 

*Christmas pudding - I meant a certain "post post" old term currently not allowed in here

Edited January 9, 2019 by Easton Luna Boys

[SMU]

22 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Do you think the cold zonality will deliver for lowland North/West Scotland and England? 

Or will it be sleety pish? (Hills above 200 meters look to do well with the uppers forecast currently)

Yes you have the best chance, ideally more of a NW / SE angle so you get the best uppers!

[Mr Frost]

Just now, Easton Luna Boys said:

*Christmas pudding - I meant christmas pudding. Strangest typo ever

Alright Ian Brown - calm down we get it. 

[booferking]

7 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

For rain. 

Yes likely in the south unfortunately but when it snows here I'll send in the pictures.