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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


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Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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On ‎11‎/‎01‎/‎2019 at 06:25, carinthian said:

Super pleased to see the UKMO at (144t) and continues to push the colder uppers further SW with each run. Any short waves or lows moving from the NW will now come up against this colder block in the period post 144t and sink/or disrupt in a more southerly track, possibly over the UK or Ireland. Snow risk increases significantly.

C

UN144-7.gif

UKMO again consistent with its output and this is the best model so far for the route to cold in the short term. Looks like the low at the end of the week to track over Ireland and sinking towards Brittany and introducing a easterly component to the flow over Southern Britain next weekend.  We need to see ECM go down this route this evening.

 

C

UN144-21.gif

Edited by carinthian
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So a rather long post ( Will also clip into the winter forecast thread ) However just an update on saturdays post, a large debate around models - & I took the day 6 UKMO & GFS charts to c

I assume the overnight ECM has (temporarily at least) put an end to the glass half empty stuff from some posters yesterday. I'm sure the next variation in op run will bring them back out - but if you

It's all good folks - we are about to get slammed ? Think March 2013 imprinted on the middle of winter - what's not to love ! The slider solutions are dialled in as the wave guide changes, N

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5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The UKMO v GFS differences start quite early . Different handling of upstream shortwave energy . Given the timeframes between T96 and T120hrs hrs you’d tend to side with the UKMO given it’s better verification and the GFS flat bias .

I think the GFS has loyalty issues! PV lobe in wrong area for uk = misery downstream and over rules any other signal. His younger brother (p) rebels that theory and is better educated. 

Edited by karlos1983
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At last some snow to look forward to ! Looking very interesting indeed for the last 10 days or so of January and beyond. Different scenarios being thrown about, but all seem to lead to the same eventual outcome - COLD and SNOWY !  The uppers might not yet be showing as excessively cold, but they are cold enough for many for most of the time, and the more borderline situations often lead to the biggest snow events. Eventually it may turn even colder anyway!

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5 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Is anyone else concerned that the last 2 GEFS suites have lifted the Euro trough out on the last 2 runs?

The main euro trough will be imo as a result of the main PV displacement late Jan......the ECM with a Scandi HP 20-24 not so outlandish, GFS sniffing....but it’s a temp. one if comes, the main PV displacement to come down 24-30 Jan is how I see it.

BFTP

 

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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10 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I would suggest that you ask yourselves just one question today. How confident do you feel today about a significant cold spell starting in about 10 days time compared to how confident you felt 24 to 48 hours ago? Be honest. 

Quite confident, actually, regardless of what 'detailed' synoptics the Day-16 charts keep showing...the good ones still outnumber the bad...?

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13 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

GFS P whilst slightly different to UKMO is very cold out to 180- 

-8c air in a flat stationary high = very cold surface temps

Should be a great second half coming up on this one too ?

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My brain hurts! So many permutations and different opinions as to what's good for snow and what isn't! I'm tempted to just stop looking at the models until this time next week!

At the moment I'm expecting some wet weather down here this coming week with the possibility of something wintry later in the week. And that's it.

The following weekend I'll see what's going on for end of Jan ?

 

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2 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

The main euro trough will be imo as a result of the main PV displacement late Jan......the ECM with a Scandi HP 20-24 not so outlandish, GFS sniffing....but it’s a temp. one if comes, the main PV displacement to come down 25-30 Jan is how I see it.

BFTP

 

Interesting you are saying that because whilst the last 2 GEFS means have lifted out the trough at the end, they have also shown very very tentative early signs of an Icelandic height rise.

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13 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I would suggest that you ask yourselves just one question today. How confident do you feel today about a significant cold spell starting in about 10 days time compared to how confident you felt 24 to 48 hours ago? Be honest. 

Extremely, supremely, positively, absolutely,spectacularly confident. The only thing that has changed is the knee jerk reactions and forgetting of the bigger picture by some of you.

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Evening  all,

Looking at gfs this evening up to T 192  there is a trend for lows to keep tracking southeast bringing us mild then cold then less cold then cold with the cold periods increasing all the time ,beyond looks very promising as I feel we will see heights to our northwest taking control of our weather pattern in the last week of January 

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Check that out, the GFS P with a 1050mb high over Greenland, looking forward to this. Quicker route to cold bc of orientation of the high.

EDIT: 1055mb! Is a breathtaking run.

Edited by Ben Sainsbury
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I think that the uncertainty is evident right now on the ensembles, the 12z after D7 show some members up around +6/7c, while the majority go a lot colder, -10c/13c in there, pretty big spread. What is clear is that there is a cooling trend, with the mean staying around -5c with snow symbols til the end of the run. This is good enough for me, much colder outlook starting from D5.

Ensembles for London.

graphe_ens3.gif

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Far too many knee jerk reactions today over a gfs run or two.

we need to remember, the SSW is a slow burner unlike last year when results filtered down within 2 weeks. This will take longer, interspersed with milder interludes before I believe the onset of much colder weather end of Jan.

Sometimes we need to remember these are computer systems digesting data from a chaotic atmosphere and results (gfs runs) will differ greatly every 6 hrs or so.

The way forward is to take an objective view of all models and esembles and look for patterns, no two runs will be identical...far from it with such a chaotic atmosphere as present.

Look at the bigger picture ...the blocks are slowly falling into place ...patience.

 

A

Edited by East801
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1 minute ago, Ice Day said:

Looks like a nationwide snow event at 300, uppers conducive.

image.thumb.png.39461e2367a1dece6538aa735042bde5.png  image.thumb.png.743104281c5a497104bcd94988cf30c0.png

Then at 336....

image.thumb.png.e6b4ffaba14e341bd491d3e4a5d61b6b.png   image.thumb.png.0836d14bf7c6eaa5c6dad8e95c48b05b.png

Plenty more to come as well....  Stonking stuff.

 

Far more marginal towards the south...dolloping of the stuff to low levels further north, big totals in the hills in the north and Scotland (higher elevations).

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