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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


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Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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So a rather long post ( Will also clip into the winter forecast thread ) However just an update on saturdays post, a large debate around models - & I took the day 6 UKMO & GFS charts to c

I assume the overnight ECM has (temporarily at least) put an end to the glass half empty stuff from some posters yesterday. I'm sure the next variation in op run will bring them back out - but if you

It's all good folks - we are about to get slammed ? Think March 2013 imprinted on the middle of winter - what's not to love ! The slider solutions are dialled in as the wave guide changes, N

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7 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

that Azores high is never going to give up !! 28th Jan and warm sw winds return - doesn't look much like headline grabbing cold for the end of jan !!

Warm??? not too sure 

warm.png

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11 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

In other news, the cfs as bad as it may be is also backing off the idea of any cold compared to a few days ago. Still in the game though, but not looking nearly as good as Thursday 

wk3.wk4_20190109.z500.gif

wk3.wk4_20190111.z500.gif

I think you need to look again at those Leo they all show blocking to our north and west and some form of euro/Scandi troughing.  Which equates to cold from  a northerly quadrant

 

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GFSp still going with a nice slider.gfsnh-0-144.png?12

It is odd but GFS and its ensembles have gone very progressive, may be a data issue?

Hopefully it isn't a new signal for the pattern to stay flalter and more mobile than recently modelled.

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I think he means the Greenland anomalies were much stronger even in week 4.

Anything 4 weeks out is going to up for debate and will always fluctuate …………….just clarifying this for newbies 

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2 minutes ago, Mucka said:

GFSp still going with a nice slider.gfsnh-0-144.png?12

It is odd but GFS and its ensembles have gone very progressive, may be a data issue?

Hopefully it isn't a new signal for the pattern to stay flalter and more mobile than recently modelled.

Ah the old chestnut, if the model does not show what you want/hope for, it's a data issue or lack of!

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GFS (P) consistent with its previous output and sliding the low out to our west. Very cold over the UK. A slight improvement on the 6z run too.

important point is that it’s being consistent in recent runs, which contrasts to the GFS. Let’s hope it sticks to its guns.

A8E1CE05-16B8-4E4C-95FC-E57DC41737E6.png

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2 minutes ago, Mucka said:

GFSp still going with a nice slider.gfsnh-0-144.png?12

It is odd but GFS and its ensembles have gone very progressive, may be a data issue?

Hopefully it isn't a new signal for the pattern to stay flalter and more mobile than recently modelled.

Lack of ballon data, perhaps. ?? I doubt it’s a data issue really, the gfs is always over progressive! One way or the other.

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Just now, Mucka said:

GFSp still going with a nice slider.gfsnh-0-144.png?12

It is odd but GFS and its ensembles have gone very progressive, may be a data issue?

Hopefully it isn't a new signal for the pattern to stay flalter and more mobile than recently modelled.

GFS(p) finally getting down with the sliders.

I think until the models get to grips with what happens with the low coming off of the eastern seaboard at +96 & it’s evolution at +144, we are going to get very indifferent Fl’s. 

As ever, more runs 

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The GFS 12z wasn’t a too bad of a run . Plenty of snow opportunities almost anywhere . I just wish we could have a slightly stronger block over are side to lock in the cold . Also the uppers are not amazingly cold . Hopefully we can drop them down more on future runs . 

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I would suggest that you ask yourselves just one question today. How confident do you feel today about a significant cold spell starting in about 10 days time compared to how confident you felt 24 to 48 hours ago? Be honest. 

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1 minute ago, bradythemole said:

GFS (P) consistent with its previous output and sliding the low out to our west. Very cold over the UK. A slight improvement on the 6z run too.

important point is that it’s being consistent in recent runs, which contrasts to the GFS. Let’s hope it sticks to its guns.

A8E1CE05-16B8-4E4C-95FC-E57DC41737E6.png

Sadly its not though ,its quite different at 180 

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14 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

that Azores high is never going to give up !! 28th Jan and warm sw winds return - doesn't look much like headline grabbing cold for the end of jan !!

aside from the issue of giving any credence to a D16 GFS chart, much of the UK seems to be bathed in pretty cold 850s (apart from a bit of a warm waft over NW Ireland) - so I don't think it would be warm?

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2 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Ah the old chestnut, if the model does not show what you want/hope for, it's a data issue or lack of!

Ahh that old chestnut - entirely ignore the context of the post.

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1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

I would suggest that you ask yourselves just one question today. How confident do you feel today about a significant cold spell starting in about 10 days time compared to how confident you felt 24 to 48 hours ago? Be honest. 

I'm certainly not, I expected some really good upgrades but the models have smacked me in the mouth

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Barring the ukmo really big swings on the mo today.gfs 12z para shows at 192 hours how up in the air things are!!!

Edited by swfc
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Just now, BurwellWeatherWatch said:

aside from the issue of giving any credence to a D16 GFS chart, much of the UK seems to be bathed in pretty cold 850s (apart from a bit of a warm waft over NW Ireland) - so I don't think it would be warm?

but its hardly a big freeze either the Azores high is nosing in and bringing its balmy uppers with it - yes its a GFS low res chart but its available and people comment on them.

 

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2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I would suggest that you ask yourselves just one question today. How confident do you feel today about a significant cold spell starting in about 10 days time compared to how confident you felt 24 to 48 hours ago? Be honest. 

"Significant cold spell" as opposed to a number of cold snaps? Then no confidence either now or 24 to 48 hours ago.

Cold snaps over coming four weeks? Pretty confident.

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The UKMO v GFS differences start quite early . Different handling of upstream shortwave energy . Given the timeframes between T96 and T120hrs hrs you’d tend to side with the UKMO given it’s better verification and the GFS flat bias .

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3 minutes ago, Banbury said:

I'm certainly not, I expected some really good upgrades but the models have smacked me in the mouth

There has been a cold spell showing at 10+ days since November so not overly confident, a cold snap maybe 

Edited by Penicuikblizzard
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26 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

If you ignore the specific details (which are pointless beyond a week and will always change), you can clearly see the general pattern of low pressure moving from north west to south east, rather than the 'normal' west to east, which would lead to generally increasingly cold uppers and increasing snow risk as a result. 

People seem to be getting hung up on the lack of frigidly cold and blocked charts showing in the early to mid term, yet it's the gradually colder trend we are looking for and that is clearly evident. A sudden plunge into deep cold, this is not. This is a real 'slow burner' and may well mean a longer than normal overall cold and wintry spell, rather than a short but sharp cold spell.

The model output we're seeing ties in well with the BBC and Met Office outlooks, for a downward trend in temperatures, initially in the north but spreading south with time, but with some milder incursions possible at times. The chances of the most significant cold and highest snow risks are still beyond the model output, however, and even when they are within range of the computer models it may well come down to short term forecasting or even 'nowcasting' for individual snow events. 

It looks to me like a rather messy but overall cold outlook = Plenty of snow opportunities rather than just cold and dry, but running the risk of some milder blips and marginal conditions (but these reducing with time as the risk of more significant cold builds). Higher risk but greater potential reward.

All looks very promising and to be going as the most knowledgable posters and pros are expecting it to.

Absolutely blooming well said that man.

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