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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
2 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

Oh dear! The mean is now only at - 2 850s at 324+ compared to - 6 two days ago at the same time 

There is more spread on 6z GEFS for sure..

Only looked at the London ones though..

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
8 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

Oh dear! The mean is now only at - 2 850s at 324+ compared to - 6 two days ago at the same time 

I will be more concerned if that trend continues on the 12z run. Never rated the 06z or it's ensembles. I personally think it should be scrapped altogether along with the 18z and we just have the 00z and 12z. This would help alleviate so much stress. 

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull

06z Swingometers

For those hoping for some serious blocking to our NW, I think they will be feeling rather let down by the 06z options. Such options have declined and we are now seeing a move towards a cold cyclonic pattern. This is shown by the ens which are generally cold but not especially so. P7 has a nice northerly waiting in the wings. We could also get a transient ridge over Scandi to hold the Atlantic back.

image.thumb.png.1ea295b65aa9e8f08bcfa4572139a9f5.pngimage.thumb.png.3116a4d6e20721cbdab5f719209aaa20.png

The 25th of January looks similar, generally cold but a messy pattern with little in the way of Northern blocking. Hence the rather lacklustre but uncertain 06z swingometers. The parallel shows how such a pattern can work in our favour as a lobe of the PV falls over us and we are left with very slack winds and cold surface temperature.

image.thumb.png.e268ddf27936de745b55bef06d8874ca.pngimage.thumb.png.d81267b262b9a7f1bec4e089c5a5a733.png 

Asking for the low pressure to disrupt at T144 is pretty ambitious and recent runs seem to be backing off from the idea. The 06z parallel is better but don't get your hopes up is my advice. It wouldn't surprise me in 10 days time if all we saw was a cold cyclonic pattern with little in the way of snow at low levels. We may get better but I'm keeping my feet firmly on the ground and not getting carried away. But hey ho, why don't we just ban the GFS eh???

Finally just look at that global temperature anomaly pattern, especially over North America which screams an active jet to me, a huge amount of fuel for the North Atlantic with that temperature gradient from the NE US to Greenland and a cold arctic to boot.

image.thumb.png.2521605d6c8bf57917c9cf2db80c56cd.png

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Hmm. I'm just seeing systems with PM air coming off the Atlantic, some of it cold enough for snow over the hills, and some wintry conditions lower down. Looks very damp, coldish, yuk weather. I'm not seeing any Greenland/Atlantic link up with High pressure and a certainly no Scandi Highs. All looks like normal winter fare for the UK. Don't see any change this month from this pattern. Certainly no response to a SSW we all hoped for at the moment. 

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
7 minutes ago, Lloyds32 said:

Hmm. I'm just seeing systems with PM air coming off the Atlantic, some of it cold enough for snow over the hills, and some wintry conditions lower down. Looks very damp, coldish, yuk weather. I'm not seeing any Greenland/Atlantic link up with High pressure and a certainly no Scandi Highs. All looks like normal winter fare for the UK. Don't see any change this month from this pattern. Certainly no response to a SSW we all hoped for at the moment. 

Pretty much all of those points you’ve just said aren’t happening can be found in the 00z and 06z suites... 

scandi Heights for an example : happened 

B0F405FA-BFE6-444F-9CD3-7859D7EBA01A.thumb.png.8d1b2b2f7093fccabcb206f2a0aa8c7c.png

Greenland/Atlantic Height link up; see below post

 

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
1 hour ago, Tim Bland said:

6DAC8597-29F8-43B9-BB52-E7CE953E85BD.png

D632B9AC-2CF0-4AD1-BFEA-3551EDE4B67B.png

556E74D1-5CEC-4ACC-9295-74B11CF4E992.png

GFS 06Z is similar for 22nd. All heading the right way

image.thumb.png.bd91d1d9619cce971d8d55e8557b7521.png

GEM same way

image.thumb.png.c8106b74f3f265982c6acf4adceefa58.png

Edited by winterof79
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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

06 always seems the worst run of the 4 gfs runs when cold weather is on the horizon,iTs always seems to go for a flat option,bet you anything the 12z will be much better

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
3 minutes ago, Decemberof2010 said:

Am i on my own in thinking that the GEFS 6z suite is actually quite decent?

Heres just a few examples

 

D7321806-58C2-4625-8A39-02271B7958EC.png

5353B509-6EA3-4650-AF98-F236126DC7FC.png

A41D9008-B414-4B21-9739-5AF6223FE465.png

CC26E894-6502-431D-8C7C-3B481CDC5BF2.png

23FD6E66-6E23-473A-9150-165F91BC1D28.png

Nope here is the moyenne with our own home grown cold pool and a helping hand from sister Canada

image.thumb.png.9310e74a1b988839d08b12188e246dbc.png

Edited by winterof79
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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
11 minutes ago, Lloyds32 said:

Hmm. I'm just seeing systems with PM air coming off the Atlantic, some of it cold enough for snow over the hills, and some wintry conditions lower down. Looks very damp, coldish, yuk weather. I'm not seeing any Greenland/Atlantic link up with High pressure and a certainly no Scandi Highs. All looks like normal winter fare for the UK. Don't see any change this month from this pattern. Certainly no response to a SSW we all hoped for at the moment. 

depends on your location, where is it? for my location the post probably accurate, but dumpings of snow shown for favoured areas of UK, members have the right to be excited

Edited by I remember Atlantic 252
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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

If you are on low ground south of the midlands then there will probably be some less cold periods and melting of snow during weeks 2 and 3. Still Much better than a block that gives a cold dry northerly with just a few coastal showers IMO. I’d rather have lots of marginal snow events! 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

I will be more concerned if that trend continues on the 12z run. Never rated the 06z or it's ensembles. I personally think it should be scrapped altogether along with the 18z and we just have the 00z and 12z. This would help alleviate so much stress. 

No-one's forcing you to watch every run, as it comes out, though...And, let's face it, most of the over-analysis post Day-10 is only really for entertainment purposes (my own included!) anywho? At T+348, I doubt that any run, from any model, achieves much better than about 15% verification; so only good for overall patterns, at best, I think?

But then, I doubt the FV3's main purpose is to 'beat' its predecessor at Day-16...?

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
17 minutes ago, Lloyds32 said:

Hmm. I'm just seeing systems with PM air coming off the Atlantic, some of it cold enough for snow over the hills, and some wintry conditions lower down. Looks very damp, coldish, yuk weather. I'm not seeing any Greenland/Atlantic link up with High pressure and a certainly no Scandi Highs. All looks like normal winter fare for the UK. Don't see any change this month from this pattern. Certainly no response to a SSW we all hoped for at the moment. 

MT8_Manchester_ens.png

Looks cold to me compared with the average. Remember after 10 days we are in LOW RES.

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23 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Pretty much all of those points you’ve just said aren’t happening can be found in the 00z and 06z suites... 

scandi Heights for an example : happened 

B0F405FA-BFE6-444F-9CD3-7859D7EBA01A.thumb.png.8d1b2b2f7093fccabcb206f2a0aa8c7c.png

Greenland/Atlantic Height link up; see below post

 

In the far reaches of FI. Your chart is date 28th January 16 days away. Before that, and more towards the reliable..as per my post. Thats my view. Absolutely nothing to get excited about.

Edited by Lloyds32
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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

Not sure what some members are expecting to see on the mo atm.If your expectations include 09-10 synoptics regarding blocking imo you will be disappointed.slack areas of pressure"wedges"are suffice to direct cold and areas of low pressure favourably for the UK including decent 850s.For me looking at the nhp I don't see major blocking being the big player pre the Feb period.

Edited by swfc
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