Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

[Ali1977]

ECM another warm outlier 

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

ECM another warm outlier 

Looks like a cold outlier to me Ali

Edited January 12, 2019 by karlos1983

[SMU]

It may be both ^ warm at the start & probably cold at the finish

the mean was -6c at day 10 so 4 lower for London on the operational, maybe 1-2 above the mean in the midterm-

Edited January 12, 2019 by Steve Murr

[Sceptical]

23 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

NetW-mr Snow risk for next Wed/Thu/Fri, All subject to change..

Similar to the forecast from the Met.

Snow now expected for parts of Northern Scotland on Monday.

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Time to worry? First signs the mean heading back up.

Central England 

 

I think that will fall away again d11+ tbh as w'ly becomes NW'ly on the mean, it is different to yesterdays 12z though, not sure for better or worse till we here the D10-15 reports.

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Time to worry? First signs the mean heading back up.

Central England 

Just looks like natural variation to me?  The mean is still sitting around -5 (give or take a degree or so) from 17th onwards?  Probably as good as we can expect prior to any Greenland / Northern blocking taking place?

I would suspect given the EC46 / Glosea forecasts we will have to wait until at least 25th / 26th for that to take place (assuming such forecasts are correct) which is presently out of range of most modelling?

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

Yes and people are happy to hang on the EC46 which goes out a lot further than 384 hrs

It's because the Ec46 is a finally tuned long range forecasting super computer, which is greatly respected amongst the most coorperate organisations on the plannet, 

a bit different to the gfs which is a short range forecasting tool, yes it goes to 384 but once it gets into low res is rapidly goes back to climatology inbuilt within it which is why it's famous for blowing up the jet stream etc, 

And also why it's looked at with a huge pinch of salt by many past t144

[nick sussex]

Not liking this start to the day .

A flattening of the upstream pattern within day 6 . The low that attempted to slide has little separation now between it and the next system coming out of the USA.

Later the models are quicker to take the PV eastwards , originally they pulled this nw.

Theres no point spinning compared to yesterday’s trends more roadblocks are being thrown up early .

Lets hope this is just one of those dodgy starts and we  see a better trend develop for the rest of the day .

If you compare the ECM mean at day ten and the op there’s now a marked divergence so either many of the ensembles are slow to catch up with the different evolution or the op has gone off the rails .

 

Edited January 12, 2019 by nick sussex

[northwestsnow]

Synoptically EC det is detached from the mean by day 9/10 so 850s not really releveant IMHO..

DET day 10

mean day 10

[nick sussex]

The ECM longer range ensembles still look okay . Quite a few very cold solutions but we want a strong foundation and not low margin for error evolutions early on.

 

[Chesil View]

11 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Not liking this start to the day .

A flattening of the upstream pattern within day 6 . The low that attempted to slide has little separation now between it and the next system coming out of the USA.

Later the models are quicker to take the PV eastwards , originally they pulled this nw.

Theres no point spinning compared to yesterday’s trends more roadblocks are being thrown up early .

Lets hope this is just one of those dodgy starts and we  see a better trend develop for the rest of the day .

If you compare the ECM mean at day ten and the op there’s now a marked divergence so either many of the ensembles are slow to catch up with the different evolution or the op has gone off the rails .

 

Hi Nick. Did you used play Private Fraser in Dad's Army. Lol.

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

The ECM longer range ensembles still look okay . Quite a few very cold solutions but we want a strong foundation and not low margin for error evolutions early on.

 

Quite, and the mean looks great

GEFS look very good, UKMO looks the best of the lot at 144, and icon is a belter..

All good in the hood from where i'm sat Nick ..

[nick sussex]

3 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Hi Nick. Did you used play Private Fraser in Dad's Army. Lol.

 No just telling it like it is ! I don’t do spin . Dads Army you know I’m far too young to have seen that ! I wish !

Edited January 12, 2019 by nick sussex

[shaky]

Ecm doesnt have a clue whats its doing with that low!!gfs takes a backwards step compared to last nights 18z in regards to the slider!!ukmo is the only model that looks better!!am surprised no one has mentioned the icon keeps on deepening that system at 96 to 120 hours around the uk where as all the other models have it a lot slacker!!im on about the one that gives the initial northerly!

[Stuie]

6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

 No just telling it like it is ! I don’t do spin . Dads Army you know I’m far too young to have seen that ! I wish !

Who do you think you are kidding Mr Sussex....

I have to say there is an unfortunate familiarity of where the bulk of the cold is at the end of the month. there is a decent cold pool in Europe but sustained for us will take some modding, this just looks like cold shots.

[karlos1983]

9 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Quite, and the mean looks great

GEFS look very good, UKMO looks the best of the lot at 144, and icon is a belter..

All good in the hood from where i'm sat Nick ..

I’ve just had another look and actually the UKMO does look very good at 144. I’m slightly happier now. 

[nick sussex]

For those that know me know I’m obsessed with margin for error in set ups .

For newer members I always view set ups from what can go wrong , how many assumptions do we need to make to get from point a to point b.

Its not that every complex evolution hits the buffers , but the simplest solution is always the best .

Easterlies and ne types often involve something a bit more complex , but there are degrees of complexity and margin for error .

Anyway coffee time ! Back for our favourite the ICON!

[northwestsnow]

GFS 00z para also an absolute snorter !!

Its cold pretty much all the way through ..a snapshot in FI..(a very snowy Fi i might add)

[bluearmy]

ec loses the plot at day 8 in the atlantic

no point in looking at it after day 7

if it’s anywhere near right then the eps and other ec ens tools are a complete waste of time and have been for weeks .......(chuck in all other global forecasting tools ) 

the noon run is important to see what it does at days 7/8 with the next train out of the Canadian vortex station ..... I woud have expected it to follow closer to icon 

that T300 eps mean from yesterday is a little more marked a day later at T276

I’m noticing a trend today for the diving systems to back further west as week 2 progresses

the larger feature (as currently modelled) around day 11/12) could well end up dropping down the western side of the uk and not introduce a ‘warm sector’ at all to much of the UK 

 

[knocker]

Little change with the the ext EPS mean anomaly with ridging into Iceland and the positively tilted trough, with the colder temps (a fair bit below average) within the trough corridor

[Stuie]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS 00z para also an absolute snorter !!

Its cold pretty much all the way through ..a snapshot in FI..(a very snowy Fi i might add)

It isn`t warm NWS but snow conducive air comes in bursts not sustained (850`s)

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, knocker said:

Little change with the the ext EPS mean anomaly with ridging into Iceland and the positively tilted trough, with the colder temps (a fair bit below average) within the trough corridor

Looks a slightly stronger high anomaly to the west than yesterday but yes practically the same.

[karlos1983]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS 00z para also an absolute snorter !!

Its cold pretty much all the way through ..a snapshot in FI..(a very snowy Fi i might add)

Has the Para finally figured out the concept of sliders!

Edited January 12, 2019 by karlos1983

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Stuie W said:

It isn`t warm NWS but snow conducive air comes in bursts not sustained (850`s)

In the interests of balance that is only a snapshot of the 00z para but there is a lot of snow across the UK..

[northwestsnow]

Busy day for me today so no posts but i'm delighted with the 00z runs and ens guidance- i would agree with Blue that we need to see this stubborn EC det change its track day 7 onwards- it is cold, but could go either way post day 10, and here i agree with Nick Sussex wrt margin for error, there is none on ec  det..

12zs will be really quite important..would like EC 12Z to look like its mean at day 8/9 from the 00z suite..