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Paul

Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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25 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I was relieved to see IDO hadn't posted but the GEFS mean is a tad underwhelming at 384 but the graph still looks decent though.

Why are we worrying about 384, you're better than that Feb. Sometimes the models cannot agree at 120 so I think charts at 384 are of little concern. Would people think a blizzard at 384 is on the way?

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Not sure I’m liking the mornings runs for the 7-10 day period, uppers not as cold, ridge not as developed. 

ECM at 168 looks a little flat 

40E3F812-1915-4042-98F9-8C9BA013C0A6.png

UKMO at 144 is the pick of the bunch I’d say as there is a  slightly better ridge behind the sliding LP . 

5A526E30-FBA1-4C4C-AE50-C7964D1C61C1.gif

Edited by Ali1977

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5 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Why are we worrying about 384, you're better than that Feb. Sometimes the models cannot agree at 120 so I think charts at 384 are of little concern. Would people think a blizzard at 384 is on the way?

Not worrying, just want to see Northern blocking, contrary to popular opinion on here, the ensembles pick things out at range, they have picked out the upcoming cold spell.

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3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not worrying, just want to see Northern blocking, contrary to popular opinion on here, the ensembles pick things out at range, they have picked out the upcoming cold spell.

Yes and people are happy to hang on the EC46 which goes out a lot further than 384 hrs

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Just now, CreweCold said:

Yes and people are happy to hang on the EC46 which goes out a lot further than 384 hrs

I talk about the EC46 a lot but do it whether it shows mild or cold, in fact now the single biggest thing for me is we want the back end of the eps suites to fit the ec46, currently they do.

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2 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

My suspicion is growing that the trends are going to converge on a frontal boundary snowfall event around 19th-20th followed by a second wintry mix scenario from the northwest, then the northerly floodgates will open. This is how I read the clues from my own research bias. The frontal boundary event will likely be east of a Dublin-Bristol-IOW line but with any luck that boundary will be set up a little further west to include more territory on the colder side. Could be somewhat similar to a snowstorm in Feb 2012. 

If your talking feb 5th 2012, i think that was a more positively tilted tbh, we were lucky to get an event out of that.

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The cold spell hasn't begun yet and the next 5 days look more like a glancing blow, after that who knows??? 

I want northern blocking just as much as you by the way.

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ECM now wants an Easterly - who knows what is going to happen. This seems to go against the EC46.

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Close to very good, hoping the ENS have this HP slightly further North keeping the whole UK in that cold air

5457CD6D-24C9-4E0E-BC43-E8A89F8E71E0.png

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3 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

ECM now wants an Easterly - who knows what is going to happen. This seems to go against the EC46.

I liked yesterdays ECM 12z better. looked sustainable.

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I think  some posters are missing the point here a bit. The early part of this upcoming spell was always forecast to be low pressure led with sliders and cold /polar low diving from a nw quadrant feeding into a euro trough. 

Once in place a euro trough often is more stable in terms of longevity than a Scandi high.

This combined with the southerly track of the jet can then be the mechanism for

Blocking to our north as advertised via Glosea but we need the euro trough in place to support this so from my perspective everything ticking along nicely particularly liking the GFS para this morning in that regard.

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15 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

My suspicion is growing that the trends are going to converge on a frontal boundary snowfall event around 19th-20th followed by a second wintry mix scenario from the northwest, then the northerly floodgates will open. This is how I read the clues from my own research bias. The frontal boundary event will likely be east of a Dublin-Bristol-IOW line but with any luck that boundary will be set up a little further west to include more territory on the colder side. Could be somewhat similar to a snowstorm in Feb 2012. 

I think UKMO is sending that low next weekend a bit of a different track to the American models , possibly further south over Ireland. UKMO/ECM look very similar at 144t but whether UKMO follows the ECM route, I have doubts at this stage. Forecast of snow boundary ( if at all ) is going to be difficult this far out but colder scenario for all developing as next week progresses.

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10 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

I think  some posters are missing the point here a bit. The early part of this upcoming spell was always forecast to be low pressure led with sliders and cold /polar low diving from a nw quadrant feeding into a euro trough. 

Once in place a euro trough often is more stable in terms of longevity than a Scandi high.

This combined with the southerly track of the jet can then be the mechanism for

Blocking to our north as advertised via Glosea but we need the euro trough in place to support this so from my perspective everything ticking along nicely particularly liking the GFS para this morning in that regard.

Yes totally agree tbh, the only comment i was making was the GEFS mean was starting to lift out the trough at the end - thats all.

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10 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

Maybe that easterly and rapidly appearing bubble of cold high pressure is a first attempt to speed up the evolution of a cold spell, but I suspect it's a halfway house to a second wave of low pressure from Iceland moving southeast then a strong northeast to north flow. We're going to have model chaos for a day or two now, as the results of the downwelling begin to intrude on the model solutions. Get ready to see four or more totally different scenarios on 06z and 12z model runs. 

Nothing unusual there then!!!

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57 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I was relieved to see IDO hadn't posted but the GEFS mean is a tad underwhelming at 384 but the graph still looks decent though.

The mean way out in FI will be subject to a sine wave pattern due to the repeating cycle of oscillating Atlantic high; those T850s are not an issue at this range ATM.

Of course, that is assuming that the GFS has it right? I know the pros suggest that the trop response will be the Canadian vortex spewing the cold east/SE as the downwelling impacts, and the GFS op and Control have a good cluster representative of this synoptic. However, the ECM is more reluctant to get that ball in motion and slows the Atlantic down after D7. Its performance of late can be scarily bad in such setups so may be wrong, though a small cluster in the GEFS renders caution.

The GEFS at D16 remains uninstructive as for long wave pattern and the probability of HLB'ing, which is of no surprise!

gens_panel_jti8.png547483977_ECH1-240(3).thumb.gif.f7bba80916b63fd44557c11f0aad0cef.gif

Steady as we go, this is clearly not an SSW that will deliver a sustainable GH in the medium term, The D10 ECM chart highlights that^^^. So we are relying on the UK being on the cold side of a jet stream hopefully traversing NW to SE and with this dependant upon the Canadian PV lobe -v- Atlantic ridging power struggle, timing and wedge injections. All in all good, just how good for snow?

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nice sets of gfs ensembles again,cold spell is gathering pace it seems,even if the operationals are nothing special.

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NetW-mr Snow risk for next Wed/Thu/Fri, All subject to change..

viewimage (36).png

viewimage (37).png

viewimage (38).png

Edited by Polar Maritime

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39 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

ECM now wants an Easterly - who knows what is going to happen. This seems to go against the EC46.

at least Europe has now cooled down slightly lol

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I should have just stopped at the ICON....

was obviously too much to ask for a Stella set this morning for a change..... 🙄

I’m just going to leave the last frame of the ICON fresh in my head

1AE7251D-EE01-4BF3-A27E-56D3305197E5.thumb.png.bafec1bb2a6f1292bf4ab515d3452520.png

 

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8 minutes ago, IDO said:

 

The GEFS at D16 remains uninstructive as for long wave pattern and the probability of HLB'ing, which is of no surprise!

 

Steady as we go, this is clearly not an SSW that will deliver a sustainable GH in the medium term, The D10 ECM chart highlights that^^^. So we are relying on the UK being on the cold side of a jet stream hopefully traversing NW to SE and with this dependant upon the Canadian PV lobe -v- Atlantic ridging power struggle, timing and wedge injections. All in all good, just how good for snow?

Looking at the SSW downwelling, it has always looked to me unlikely to deliver a Greenland high as the canadian segment wasn't pushed far enough away, griceland perhaps? however - there are still a few GEFS that do raise Greeny heights and a few more that might go onto.

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10 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

NetW-mr Snow risk for next Wed/Thu/Fri, All subject to change..

viewimage (36).png

viewimage (37).png

viewimage (38).png

North Pennines primed if this were true 

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Time to worry? First signs the mean heading back up.

Central England 

8D78A106-A549-4F74-86D6-67510A32F8F3.thumb.png.7f7bfe1364fba4c050a3953ab2b73c09.png

Edited by karlos1983

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