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Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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The GFSP with a potent north/north west flow by next Thursday.

 

gfsp.png

gfsp3.png

Edited by MattStoke
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We are seeing variations of a theme- the dynamics are consistent..

Reading Lorenzo's excellent post and looking at Ens guidance supports  a cold outlook...

Some stonking ops @ 00z will hopefully be forthcoming..

 

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There is definitely a different feel to this winter and the current SSW which is why I think, away from Scotland, the UK could easily miss out on what could be a memorable winter for other parts of the world (law of averages). However, we are at least ten days away from knowing for sure. 

Such a shame the northern hemisphere is closer to the sun during winter 

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Not sure the south is gonna see anything for a while, if your in the north, it's looking great - midlands reasonable - south west? No chance

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Not sure those on the Gulf coast will want the control to verify 🤣🥶

6BA5359A-5E6C-49B5-B055-67BA3F5D2D9D.thumb.png.57f36e95470462fad8cc95776abd0e0e.png 

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Just now, Leo97t said:

Not sure the south is gonna see anything for a while, if your in the north, it's looking great - midlands reasonable - south west? No chance

Hard to make the call over 5 days out. Even still at 24 hours out, I’ve seen the south end up with a pasting due to slider correction over 100’s of miles. 

The detail as ever will always boil down to high resolution outputs. The main thing is getting agreement on a cold spell, which looks to be gaining momentum and support now. 

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Almost feels like the troposphere's efforts to build a Greenland high and a Scandinavian high cancel each other out and we are left we a shortwave mess

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3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I've now looked at so many model evolutions between T120 and T300 over the last few days I'm going nuts.  Consensus, cold from end of next week, colder from 21st.  

And now I'm supposed to make some sense of this cobblers from the FV3 T186:

image.thumb.jpg.8b7f1710b6c5058a9833440d04c7d79f.jpg

My head hurts now.

Better runs in the morning, we all know that won't happen, so better runs on tomorrow's 12s, yes, that sounds good, night all!

That’s a pretty good summary Mike 🤣 my heads hurting as well... would be nice to wake up to a decent overnight run! 🤞like we really know it should be showing 🤷‍♂️

still the ENS are bonkers! 👍❄️🥶⛄

CB6FEEF4-5743-4D59-9A54-FBD39A77931A.thumb.gif.9f67e4f3fec4ccb03639af442fc82a20.gif

Edited by karlos1983
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4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Not sure those on the Gulf coast will want the control to verify 🤣🥶

6BA5359A-5E6C-49B5-B055-67BA3F5D2D9D.thumb.png.57f36e95470462fad8cc95776abd0e0e.png 

Must be pretty rare to get the -20 isotherm into the heart of Georgia? Surely record breaking cold for the likes of Atlanta if this happens as shown.

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4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

18Z Para shaping up very nicely at 198..

Yes much better. Lobe dropping south opening up opportunity for height rises to our west C6778DD4-31EE-4760-AEF2-0FC73D5BCFCB.png

6EE495D4-036A-4D9F-B742-2D85B83179AA.png

Edited by Tim Bland
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2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

18Z Para shaping up very nicely at 198..

Going west based neg nao before the cold spell gets going. Getting silly now!

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Definition of a blocked Atlantic..... the GFSP at 252

image.thumb.png.b2b8eee658b6d135ac09464a7c9fecee.png

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14 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

Not sure the south is gonna see anything for a while, if your in the north, it's looking great - midlands reasonable - south west? No chance

Experience says you really can’t say this is a north or south thing

cmon now stop all this

just sit back relax and wait

winter never follows the models

the hunt is over the cold is coming

where it’s way to early yet

Edited by snowbob
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Just now, blizzard81 said:

Going west based neg nao before the cold spell gets going. Getting silly now!

Then redeems itself. Like everything else at the moment - crazy times!

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18z GFS may not be quite as good as 12z GFS but using the John Holmes rule of comparing same-time runs, both are improvements. Anyway, 18z past six days not often worth worrying about, likely we will see a continued improvement with the bigger 00z model runs. 

As to the NAm situation, it's just a fairly standard major cold outbreak into the east behind what is shaping up to be a major storm around 20th-21st on the east coast. Hoping that will run due north once past Cape Cod and do good things for the hemispheric circulation over eastern Canadian arctic. It will be a cold 3-4 weeks likely over eastern North Am but as I mentioned a few days ago, by early February cold spells are often in phase on both sides of Atlantic, records were set in places like Toronto in 1855 and 1895, two of the coldest early to mid Februaries in the CET series. 

 

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@Man With Beard

London graph - definite upgrade, its just a tiny rise at the end that threw me out.

 

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18z about to drop a snow bomb across Scotland..

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2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:


image.thumb.png.0447dcc34a0e4b4842e2a27b04bae0e0.png

GrossJitteryIndianabat-size_restricted.g

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3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Drat it stopped at the best chart!!
image.thumb.png.0447dcc34a0e4b4842e2a27b04bae0e0.png

Doing that a lot lately. Getting boring now! Yawn

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