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Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

We looking at the same charts? Up to 300 hours is Atlantic overblown lows barrelling in, woeful! Nothing to worry about though, yet.

Agreed

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4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

WOW - i would take the GFS 18z - watch this unfold in FI, watch the uppers for a N'ly - and what happens afterwards - stonker alert!!!!

Always at 300 hrs+

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I know this is off the rails and down a hillside by now but interesting to watch the utter mayhem at T348

image.thumb.jpg.c73c5001a1c335bc0ed2fa26bae826ad.jpg

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If the models prove to be correct, Scotland and the North of England (particularly the North West) will do well for snow over the next 2-3 weeks. The South of England will have to wait until February in my opinion if heights into Greenland/Iceland come to fruition.

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5 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Slight upgrade. Tell me if I'm right! 

I’ll say tough to see a difference ......

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2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Always at 300 hrs+

Trust me - something better coming - i can feel it - btw yes that run wasn't as good as i expected, lets wait for the ens though.

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Absolute FI carnage...... superb.  WIll look totally different in 6 hours, and probably better.

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3 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

This is happening - no doubt.

Absolutely. Too many getting hung up on the GFS 18z op. Has the pub run EVER verified ? Been model watching for 15 years now and I know what I think of the pub run - not repeatable on here lol 🙂 Having said that, even the drunkard gets there in the end tonight 🙂

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@lorenzo in ramp mode? you down the boozer with the GFS 18z 😂 even with it reverting to explosive low FI tendencies still gets the overall theme of cooler / colder conditions spreading south and those above average heights Greenland / Scandi  tempresult_hmg2.thumb.gif.92ba07db9ebb713b8e0c068ff4be8480.gifgfsnh-12-384.thumb.png.dad5753d281fdceb7806cc2397bc1d13.png 

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I wouldn't say no to this from the Gfs 18z..much better than all the boring benign mildish high pressure so far this winter!!!..hopefully very exciting times ahead for those of us hunting for cold..and SNOW!👍❄️:gathering:

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18_324_mslp500.png

18_324_ukthickness850.png

18_324_ukthickness.png

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Still only 50:50 for cold & snow. Scotland better of course and will likely do well in the final third of winter. The rest of the UK might continue in the trend of being between two cold masses with fleeting cooler incursions. 

Just being realistic. 

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6 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Absolute FI carnage...... superb.  WIll look totally different in 6 hours, and probably better.

image.thumb.png.f29db9f79d72f68f6be94def07f13f74.png

Carnage ? In what sense? Here is the snow depths 🤔

0F576958-3CC5-464F-BD1C-A1EF9125F09F.png

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Astonishing cold for Canada and Midwest/ NE US in FI.............records will fall.  With v cold sinking south across the NH any Atlantic activity will be extremely interesting indeed.  

BFTP

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Just now, Tim Bland said:

Carnage ? In what sense? Here is the snow depths 🤔

0F576958-3CC5-464F-BD1C-A1EF9125F09F.png

I think the Friday drinks must be flowing, because I found that run pretty underwhelming until deep la la land 😬 

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I wouldn't put a lot of faith into this GFS run to be honest, the strat downwelling is very different to the 12z

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OK, after that bit of silliness, just a quick precis over the last couple of days model watching.  If we think back to last weekend many of us were getting concerned that the NWP was not throwing out the outrageous runs we though the SSW would be producing.  Well, that has now changed and we are regularly seeing the GFS produce all sorts of FI fireworks and the longer term models (like last nights EC46) are latching onto something quite significant.

The next few days are going to be brilliant model watching, can't wait for the next run.

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6 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

SSW Down welling will over ride the MJO signal

the resurgence of the upper level westerly regime will flush down the 'burrowing easterlies' referred to in Scaife Meto vids

Simply put this SSW is new - 

its a monster displacement - so strong - its split the vortex - no long range model saw this.

The physics meant it went strong into canada, then strong into siberia - it literally has been sheared

QBO is irrelevant now - this is important as upper strat advertises differing regime from lower

the split means the trop is influential - and the trop players arrive from the tropics - the nino base state and the mjo transition

Where we are ..

the dilution of the IO development for the MJO today after the coupling of the lower TSV over the pacific means the MJO can move again - its sessions stalled in COD - we can see more modes ahead... It's going to cycle with AAM into phase 5 ..

EC week 5 regresses these.. and we have the winter lock

If it overrides the MJO why mention the MJO again as you are saying it doesn’t matter?  Just trying to digest your post Loz

Are you saying COD position is of little relevance?

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST

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7 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Carnage ? In what sense? Here is the snow depths 🤔

0F576958-3CC5-464F-BD1C-A1EF9125F09F.png

In the sense that the Pub Run had completely gone off on one producing charts that will never verify!!!

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The 18z operational following a similar theme to the 12z PARA (below) in the later stages, back the Greeny high option again! Just when we'd given up on that idea thanks to the Canadian Vortex.

12z PARA

GFSPARAEU12_360_1.thumb.png.0dd353f89c2e8d17903bb1014284619b.png

18z op

GFSOPEU18_348_1.thumb.png.7e3b176e5efc74088a5d4144bd6b9569.png

Edited by Nick F
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2 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

If it overrides the MJO why mention the MJO again as you are saying it doesn’t matter?  Just trying to digest your post Loz

BFTP

he dilution of the IO development for the MJO

 

🙂

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Op lost by D6 that’s a relief..

A80361A1-6E4E-43ED-8644-23C1F250FAAD.thumb.gif.1538f8255358bd113c378e585d2738cc.gif

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7 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

If it overrides the MJO why mention the MJO again as you are saying it doesn’t matter?  Just trying to digest your post Loz

BFTP

Is it not that the MJO was not in a favourable phase for a cold signal, but was overriden by the SSW? The MJO now forecast to move back towards a favourable phase and enable blocking to occur in more favourable position going forward? That's the way I read it.

Quite favourable indeed...

Edited by WhiteFox
A

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