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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


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Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Just now, shaky said:

Think it will be further west and south steve!!

Not sure shaky, usually when they are going to correct South westwards (like dec 17 to my cost!), they are usually negatively tilted and really disrupted and elongated, thats more of a football shape, cant see that doing any real damage wrt heavy snowfall.

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So a rather long post ( Will also clip into the winter forecast thread ) However just an update on saturdays post, a large debate around models - & I took the day 6 UKMO & GFS charts to c

I assume the overnight ECM has (temporarily at least) put an end to the glass half empty stuff from some posters yesterday. I'm sure the next variation in op run will bring them back out - but if you

It's all good folks - we are about to get slammed ? Think March 2013 imprinted on the middle of winter - what's not to love ! The slider solutions are dialled in as the wave guide changes, N

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7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

I dont often say it but based on the UKMO raw 12z & the GFS 18z this feels about the ballpark track for the low...

Snow for some along the Scottish border - then sinking south-

C9B49118-5255-42A0-B6CC-82BD81796BEF.thumb.png.969389b2fadee644150e3aa7508047d2.png

 

How far south is the question.

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5 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

I

No it's not 62 or 47 or 2010

 

 

You say that, but in your opinion do you think we could get episodes of Greenland / Scandi blocking and not just sliders over the next month or so?

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Well, Lorenzo has just hoovered up the 'Post of the Winter 2019' award.  Brilliant stuff!

Onto the pub run and it's just about to get interesting with heights building in the Atlantic at 216..... could get good this!?

image.thumb.png.c76cb72db584f088f0371fb0bb6383ef.png

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9 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Following on from that tweet. To try and pin down the track of any sliders at this timeframe will be fruitless as I am sure most of us are aware. The boundaries between snow and rain will not be known until each slider occurs. Some will be happy, others less so, but that’s what makes the upcoming weeks more fascinating in terms of model watching. After seeing an SSW and predicted propagation I love this bit of watching everything falling in or out of place tropospherically.

The chase is as much fun as the outcome!

Because of the ooomph of the cold surge prior to any slider, coupled with the likely angle of this particular attack, I think marginality will be less of an issue this time compared to most previous examples. If the slider happens, it will be snow for most.

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6 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

It's all good folks - we are about to get slammed ?

Think March 2013 imprinted on the middle of winter - what's not to love !

The slider solutions are dialled in as the wave guide changes, NW SE sliders will be the key feature of the next 6 weeks as the canadian vortex drains itself via downwelling.

No it's not 62 or 47 or 2010

But what it actually is an SSW which we all now respect and have learned from, and have the nuance to watch in real time, spilling its arctic cold guts all over the mid latitudes.

I am sorry for those of you who think , nope this is not a driver, nope AAM isnt a driver, MJO isnt a driver, Nino - isnt a driver  - you get me?

Simply put - they are - and always will be and GWO and AAM possibly the most reliable of the lot!

Do not discourage in weather that which you have yet to understand - this science is difficult, no one is ever right, no one is ever perfect,  no one on here alludes to that

What I want to say is- for us afficiandos of cold, us dedicated individuals, hunting, searching, wanting looking and dissecting everything.

We are all good

Its near solar min, monster SSW, monster Split.

NWP - Bring IT !

Wake up at 4am for the 00z and hide under the Duvet. Fingers crossed. 

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19 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

I dont often say it but based on the UKMO raw 12z & the GFS 18z this feels about the ballpark track for the low...

Snow for some along the Scottish border - then sinking south-

C9B49118-5255-42A0-B6CC-82BD81796BEF.thumb.png.969389b2fadee644150e3aa7508047d2.png

 

Hopefully further south than that...snow only in Scotland and high ground in the north at this point 

05D103F4-AE3E-40B4-9D0D-BB951E3903B5.png

9AE24F4E-C935-4965-A516-4829BAAF8674.png

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6 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Because of the ooomph of the cold surge prior to any slider, coupled with the likely angle of this particular attack, I think marginality will be less of an issue this time compared to most previous examples. If the slider happens, it will be snow for most.

Not necessarily.try telling that to those in the southwest or near the south coast like me. There will be a marginal zone somewhere and no matter what anyone thinks on here, no one will be able to predict where it is until very close to the time. Mind you if I was sitting on a Scottish hill, I would be a lot more confident! How many times have we looked at the M4 corridor as a dividing line.

edit now day 10 looks interesting....

 

Edited by chionomaniac
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OK, I'll ask this a second time, but simplify, this chart from CFS (there are similar but not as strong) suggests does it not a 4 wave blocked pattern through February?

CFS 9 Jan 12z:

image.thumb.jpg.16ab9a31cb2d9952d15053ff5c969414.jpg

I'd love some expert opinion on this, please ?

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11 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

It wouldn’t take much for that little uk high to be further north atT+192 then we would be looking at a synoptic nirvana chart....

A little like the ecm op day 10.

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Looking at the charts today, the main issue is we have two lobes of vortex... One where we want it and the other where we don't. The issue is that we're having a scandi high precluded because of deep troughing there and we're having Greenland heights stopped in their tracks by the Canadian lobe being too close. 

Thus, even though we are leeching cold uppers across the UK at times, we're really struggling for the jackpot charts. 

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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

WOW - i would take the GFS 18z - watch this unfold in FI, watch the uppers for a N'ly - and what happens afterwards - stonker alert!!!!

We looking at the same charts? Up to 300 hours is Atlantic overblown lows barrelling in, woeful! Nothing to worry about though, yet.

Edited by Weathizard
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3 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Not necessarily.try telling that to those in the southwest or near the south coast like me. There will be a marginal zone somewhere and no matter what anyone thinks on here, no one will be able to predict where it is until very close to the time. Mind you if I was sitting on a Scottish hill, I would be a lot more confident! How many times have we looked at the M4 corridor as a dividing line.

Of course. However, I think this time round with very slack, stagnant conditions in the immediate run up, coupled with deep mid winter timing, most have a chance, even down there ?

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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

WOW - i would take the GFS 18z - watch this unfold in FI, watch the uppers for a N'ly - and what happens afterwards - stonker alert!!!!

Not as good as the 12z for sure ……….but its the Op , conclusion held back until GEFS is out

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