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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Next Sun Looking forward to seeing those squiggles.

36DFC0F8-9E01-407D-A0EA-724F78131A62.png

BC3295DA-4341-4CC2-BAA3-B492C9BE1D16.png

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Just now, Ed Stone said:

Nice ensembles, TI...But can I ask you one question, please: what is a 'deco'?

A look!!

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Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,

Slight up tick in temp at 10HPA and a very small rise at 30HPA

8B5785BB-8E71-4727-9499-3DE98AC8F66B.jpeg

2136389A-F91E-4F91-B9BE-81554EAF7263.png

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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Best GEFS graph follows best EPS graph.

image.thumb.png.5f62a47b92ca58f6557b7cd704013e6d.png

A rather staggering set of ensembles

 

From the 16th we get two options cold with mild wedges thrown in or just cold
By the 21st we are just cold 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, frosty ground said:

A rather staggering set of ensembles

 

From the 16th we get two options cold with mild wedges thrown in or just cold
By the 21st we are just cold 

They look brill mate

300m in the hills of the North west looks a good place to be in a few weeks..

Exiting times !!

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

A rather staggering set of ensembles

 

From the 16th we get two options cold with mild wedges thrown in or just cold
By the 21st we are just cold 

Agreed!!.

The 850 hpa..mean..grabs all members by the throat...and sinks them!!!

A very positive-morning!

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Next step though, in the next weeks modelling we want to see more flatlining lower than -10c and closer to -15c

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

They look brill mate

300m in the hills of the North west looks a good place to be in a few weeks..

Exiting times !!

A week even!!! 

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

They look brill mate

300m in the hills of the North west looks a good place to be in a few weeks..

Exiting times !!

Always hills northwest!!! always hills!!!!!!lets change the wording to low ground in the north west looks a good place to be in a few weeks!!exciting times!!now that sounds much better

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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
2 minutes ago, shaky said:

Always hills northwest!!! always hills!!!!!!lets change the wording to low ground in the north west looks a good place to be in a few weeks!!exciting times!!now that sounds much better

I think some may see some surprise snowfall next week if these charts bear fruit  and not just the North West  this type of flow if cold enough can produce also for Scotland Wales , parts of the Midlands  and even further South.  something to watch for a change 

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Just now, weirpig said:

Para  starts height rises as early as 252hrs  

 

gfsnh-0-252 (1).png

Just about to say that, the excitement mounts and this will be a fantastic run.

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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
30 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Just about to say that, the excitement mounts and this will be a fantastic run.

Yes that's a belter of a run

Edited by Banbury
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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Just now, Banbury said:

Still not a lot being shown in the way of a good GH yet …………...ENS look good though 

Para will be up there with the coldest ENS.

2984E609-4E8D-4EFB-B283-D09FDE20F784.png

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Posted
  • Location: Barrhead, East Renfrewshire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales, thunderstorms, snow
  • Location: Barrhead, East Renfrewshire

Very nice

gfsnh-0-324.thumb.png.a146c83de65510dcec553b20f77de1cf.png

gfsnh-1-324.thumb.png.6ae69a65bbe4f14b43d7de755fc14b7c.png

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Posted
  • Location: East of Loughborough! 84m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Snow, Wind, Rain, Sun.....but mainly cooler weather!
  • Location: East of Loughborough! 84m ASL

I don't understand these models very much but am learning from reading these threads. I don't want to take the thread off track by asking too many questions.

Last winter I was in Surrey and the Beast gave us nothing but a sprinkling. I have moved to the East Midlands. From what I am interpreting, and I am probably wrong, but am I still in the wrong area for possible snow? Is it more westerly?

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Para will be up there with the coldest ENS.

2984E609-4E8D-4EFB-B283-D09FDE20F784.png

A picture of beauty!!

The lobe over canada should prevent  a west based -NAO...

 

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Posted
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Freezing fog, frost, snow, sunshine.
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl

Ensembles beginning to look particularly interesting for Scotland after a very poor winter so far despite promising cold early doors. Liking those snow probabilities 

graphe3_1000___-4.24528301887_57.3684210

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