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Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Only if it’s the same ........I can’t see the other models all being in the same place at day 10! 

I think too much fuss is being made about the ecm run. The evolution and end result is not too different to the gfs and gfsp - heights rising over the northern scandi region in the latter stages. 

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I think too many are hoping for the lovely clean Greenland height rise solution. This looks very unlikely. It's going to be a little messy. The upside to this is that many more of us are likely to see substantial snowfall by the end of January. 

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35 minutes ago, TheJCInsights said:

The GFS has, on and off, suggested January 22nd would be a fairly interesting snow event.

Could it be that after 34 years, I finally get a snow day on my birthday in the South??

Mine's the 21st, snowed in 2018 and had a brief settling, this could be very different but will wait and see, a long way to go. Get the cold in and worry about the specifics once here. Happy Birthday for the 22nd.

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4 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I think too many are hoping for the lovely clean Greenland height rise solution. This looks very unlikely. It's going to be a little messy. The upside to this is that many more of us are likely to see substantial snowfall by the end of January. 

No one should be looking for Greenie heights until week 3, until then, it's seeing what we can get from Icelandic wedges and the European troughing. 

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33 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Unlikely , if this run survives till tomorrow I’m Dolly Parton ! 

You're quite likely to suffer the weekend wobbles as well, Dolly. I'll take notice of the outputs once they start firming up (ooerr matron) again, come Monday.

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GFS Parallel is on the money again in my view..ECM and GFS op have the Canadian lobe too far east..esp later on.

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3 hours ago, madmunch said:

what time point generally do the experts on here start to believe is 'reliable' out of interest?

I'm no expert either, however, it seems to me that the 'reliable timeframe' varies according to what you are looking to 'forecast'. I watched a Met Office video a few days ago ( link was posted on here I think) where they explained that stratospheric forecasting is more 'predictable' than tropospheric. In addition, I think I am right in saying that even weather types have variable levels of predictability, i.e. snow is notoriously hard to predict at local levels even within 24hrs.

In my limited experience of reading these forums, it seems to me that if the models are all in agreement within range of 3-5 days then the trend is probably correct. 

*she says.* *hopefully*  😶

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The ecm is not dissimilar to the gfs at the end of the run as it takes a trough ejected from the Canadian vortex and runs it south of Iceland and then south east.

Tv.thumb.png.ca08c62579786abafc4f63ec8d8af3d4.pngtv2.thumb.png.abe74c307b19400c625f8652fb3d0ad7.pngT228.thumb.png.ceecd74d744cf731bf5755f861d8f5ce.png

 

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The GEFS 12z mean is looking cold / very cold with a high chance of snow during the last third of january..overall i'm very happy with the models now that predominantly boring anticyclonic spell we've had since christmas is coming to an end!!..wintry weather is on the way!👍😉❄️

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I’ll be pretty shocked if the EC isn’t on the warm side of its ensembles, possibly even an outlier at the end of the run. Just looks very odd after D6/7. Soon find out 

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Been a lurking for many years, this chace encapsulates me... but learning from experience it's all about trends, it looks like we are on the cusp of a cold spell, how cold? I don't know because I'm inexperienced. Mostly because i have seen patterns change at the last minute... and toys and dummy spat properly out of the pram! Let's hope the trend continues and we are all in the honey pot in a week or so. Keep up the great work Mods and the experienced posters... you know who you are, and i look out for. Let's hope for a memorable cold spell. ❄❄

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ECM ensemble mean 12z, promising at T144 vortex split evident, and ridge upstream of UK as per the operationals. 

image.thumb.jpg.6b710c4d2ec712cfbc6874d3d953fa3a.jpg

T240:

image.thumb.jpg.79b2367f57a5a0400cde7d090230cff9.jpg

Might need to see the clusters to fully decipher that one but nose of heights N of UK.  Arctic high sound.

Edited by Mike Poole
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ECM op will definitely be a warm outlier looking at the ENS, pretty much through the whole 120-240 timeline.

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ECM op is a big outlier.👌

EDH0-144.gif

EDH0-168.gif

EDH0-192.gif

EDH0-216.gif

EDH0-240.gif

Edited by booferking
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Yup as expected - Det an outlier

 I’ve to see the Mean heading down stil!

132FD48D-1794-4D29-B415-C4C9B6817C85.thumb.png.ebe157b3ad368a725bdb00d0aa9cfefc.png

Edited by karlos1983
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EC mean is superb..

Although a better det would be appreciated in the morning..

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Big mild outlier for Ireland Scotland England Wales would be nice to see the op support a cold suit in the Morning ..

graphe_ens3.png

graphe_ens3 (2).png

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graphe_ens3 (4).png

Edited by booferking
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Sometimes ECM just makes too many disturbances in the flow and the 12z of today looks to have been a classic example.

Shame really as otherwise we could have been eyeing up some even more promising charts than GFS judging by the tendency for an even more sluggish Atlantic lows progression.

Main course still looking to develop 4th week Jan but the appetiser may prove fulfilling for a lucky bunch.

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