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Paul

Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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12z ECM gives the UK a 24hr to 48hr shot at the coldest air before it gets shunted east still cold at the surface but not bitterly cold

ECM0-144.thumb.GIF.c93135faafb684d75ef0119d84a1e656.GIFECM0-168.thumb.GIF.c5f23e2b0358a6c90c302950d948d587.GIFECM0-192.thumb.GIF.74730b797199cf3705cdf541ad2dea73.GIFECM0-216.thumb.GIF.248081dc6772cef916a702830e651b56.GIF

 

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I think the ECM has been on the magic mushrooms !

Very bizarre evolution starting from day 7.

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1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

I think the ECM has been on the magic mushrooms !

Very bizarre evolution starting from day 7.

And yet it’s still a possible outcome 

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Aaah it looks like a bit wintry January weather may finally come our way. At least it will provide a little interest. GFS around T210 in lala land does show a possibility of another bit of freezing rain. Probably disappear in the next few runs though hopefully. 

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Think this is going the right way at T240 though...

image.thumb.jpg.6022b60356b7c2711aae1d54235c4009.jpg

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8 minutes ago, booferking said:

Umm ECM run is pretty crap to be honest 850s are terrible for the majority of its run hopefully mild outliner.

With given notes/and progressive unfolding action..

The ecm is far from CRAP- face value synoptics maybe a little tedious, but the formats ie-ejected small scale systems from the north western sector..

Set the alarms for the opening of many varied/viable options.

Once again the scales/and sharp dynamics need many of notion-as we unfold.

The large picture is very good!!

Edited by tight isobar

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Just now, northwestsnow said:

Ec ends locked and loaded..

image.thumb.png.2d5e7e15fcec46f13c7f64555e7f1309.png

I think loaded being the operative word ! 

This goes under SSE suspicious synoptic evolution. 

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Just now, nick sussex said:

Unlikely , if this run survives till tomorrow I’m Dolly Parton ! 

We are Islands in the stream.lol.

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56 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

Not a ramp, just a reading.

If you run the 850 mb temp loop on the GFS (at a high speed) you will get a good sense of how the colder air builds up in waves from a position north of Iceland, occasionally the source region comes into view, and it's clearly the Canadian arctic islands to northeast Siberia sending some super-chilled air across the pole. But running that animation also underscores the fact that this cold spell is generally pushing down through North Sea into central Europe with the odd twist of cold injections from Scandinavia joining up, and also that the Atlantic keeps trying to interact with weak injections of warmth (= moisture). That's fine as long as these don't manifest as liquid precip. But it would not inspire much confidence that southwest Ireland will get into the colder air very often, so a battleground scenario with sliders across Ireland into southwest England is implied. That works well for a lot of people interested in this outcome. 

Roger

Do you think the slow downwelling will folloe with a protracted lag effect....eg the resultant pattern will last a long time?

 

BFTP

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Just now, Mike Poole said:

Think this is going the right way at T240 though...

image.thumb.jpg.6022b60356b7c2711aae1d54235c4009.jpg

It's always going the right way at T240+.

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So front after front just grinds to a halt close to the UK. Not particularly great as the precipitation dies a death with a cold and cloudy outcome. By the way this like other solutions will likely be further away from reality than normal.

On the flip side this evolution is nowhere near normal. Something is afoot and that wedge solution keeps cropping up.

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6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Ec ends locked and loaded..

image.thumb.png.2d5e7e15fcec46f13c7f64555e7f1309.png

Fully agree...looks a bit of a hotch potch from day 7 looks like the model is a bit confused, NW to SE low heights is a consistent feature in a week or so's time.

Edited by Froze were the Days

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2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Ec ends locked and loaded..

image.thumb.png.2d5e7e15fcec46f13c7f64555e7f1309.png

So between now and then an appreciable cooldown in comparison to this winter before it before things turn more permanently cold from day ~22. 

Get the feeling the writings on the wall; this is often how historic cold spells start. 

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56 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

Blimey if it’s 6c in January with a chart like that then I think our winters will well and truly be over. 

It’s a northerly with plenty of temperature modification due to the large expanse of water it will be crossing.  This could all change though and we could see a much better outcome if the wind veers more to the north east/east.

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The ECM is cold at the surface but evolves in a strange way .

Even though it’s day ten chart is fine , the day nine is an accident waiting to happen , note the shortwave to the nw clinging on to the main trough. If that doesn’t eject cleanly se in response to the sharper upstream pattern at day ten the Prozac helpline will be needed.

If I thought this run had a chance of verifying I’d be a bit concerned as it is it won’t so I’m not bothered .

Edited by nick sussex

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i know the bbc are hinting of possible wintry  showers  at the end  of  week

gens-16-1-174.png

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5 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

With given notes/and progressive unfolding action..

The ecm is far from CRAP- face value synoptics maybe a little tedious, but the formats ie-ejected small scale systems from the north western sector..

Set the alarms for the opening of many varied/viable options.

Once again the scales/and sharp dynamics need many a sirting..

The large picture is very good!!

Yes of course the larger picture its going to be very good moving forward Day 10 but in the medium term its not as good as it could be put it this way how much you wont to wager its mild outlier of its suite.

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Certain that if we had all drawn our expected day 10 ec chart this evening, no one would, have been very close 

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Just now, bluearmy said:

Certain that if we had all drawn our expected day 10 ec chart this evening, no one would, have been very close 

Does look pretty suspect.

Playing with a new evolution possibly? I'm sure the the 0z will be very revealing.

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1 minute ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Does look pretty suspect.

Playing with a new evolution possibly? I'm sure the the 0z will be very revealing.

Only if it’s the same ........I can’t see the other models all being in the same place at day 10! 

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Just now, bluearmy said:

Only if it’s the same ........I can’t see the other models all being in the same place at day 10! 

Thinking more if something a little more radical is shown - perhaps this is a reaction to something upstream.

Who knows, but model watching is a million times better than a week ago so who cares!! Haha.

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