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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


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So a rather long post ( Will also clip into the winter forecast thread ) However just an update on saturdays post, a large debate around models - & I took the day 6 UKMO & GFS charts to c

I assume the overnight ECM has (temporarily at least) put an end to the glass half empty stuff from some posters yesterday. I'm sure the next variation in op run will bring them back out - but if you

It's all good folks - we are about to get slammed ? Think March 2013 imprinted on the middle of winter - what's not to love ! The slider solutions are dialled in as the wave guide changes, N

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
    3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

    UKMO 144 850s are good

    B5C6E3CC-7E4F-4080-9675-2D925BD2490D.gif

    Look what's about to head down the slide!!! Would love to see the 168 chart!!

    image.thumb.png.703e35677ddf628cc38ed7fbf2d72322.png

    Edited by karlos1983
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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
    1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

    That’s fairly solid agreement between the GFS and UKMO, finally? UKM marginally better

    1093A19E-2252-4AD0-88D0-E9335367B86D.png

    CCE8ED28-E524-40D0-B169-8547D0BA7064.gif

    UKMO looks like a far better profile to hold onto the cold for longer, maybe helping with a potential slider further on. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire
  • Location: Lincolnshire
    13 minutes ago, madmunch said:

    what time point generally do the experts on here start to believe is 'reliable' out of interest?

    T0hrs. As someone once famously said; the train isn't coming until you can see the train...

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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
    Just now, Ali1977 said:

    UKMO looks like a far better profile to hold onto the cold for longer, maybe helping with a potential slider further on. 

    As long as that LP doesn’t flatten the high SE would should be dandy with the trough from the NE over us, nothing nailed but I think a slider is looking ever more likely and if we can get it to slide a skew the jet we could be in business.

    This high is like Lazarus though so I wouldn’t rule it out, surely at some point it must give in... it’s like a roulette wheel rolling 10 reds in a row, surely a Black is coming... probably ? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire
  • Location: Lincolnshire
    13 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    I'd generally say t144 to t168 as a max for the most reliable output

    Anything beyond this is more likely than not to change

    ONLY if we have cross model agreement would I say 144...

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    All going well at T+114. Looks like Guy's hopes for the HP not to build will not be met...?

    image.thumb.png.dd1c7146117bbd4da17e5288c0be73da.png

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    1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

    The UKMO is great but not quite perfect- however well in the realms of correction being that 100 miles west would have had us saying it was amazing, where as people are unsure if its amazing or not-

    its 8.5/10-

    The cold air is in place & lots of convection to the NE however the little bump( circled ) from the azores ridge just nudges the core of the convection into the North sea -

    Also that bump would mean the iceland low would have a few more degrees of correction to the East than before so maybe a temporarily milder blip for the SW etc- it also could bring widespread snow to the rest...

    Other than that the post 144 signal is unchanged ....

    A1A424F8-EF87-4BEA-82E3-E936421481E9.thumb.jpeg.bd1f0ec8f59d5e479ffb9c46b9bf6705.jpeg

    What date was this for? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Tilgate, West Sussex
  • Location: Tilgate, West Sussex
    6 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

    Look what's about to head down the slide!!! Would love to see the 168 chart!!

    image.thumb.png.703e35677ddf628cc38ed7fbf2d72322.png

    is it? I'm not convinced, I can't see much of a "wedge" there to deflect it SE

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    Posted
  • Location: Telford, c.150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, ice, cold
  • Location: Telford, c.150m asl
    46 minutes ago, Johnp said:

     

    Help a newbie - at least spell the site correctly ?

    Oh, one of my annual delights is the vast and initially baffling range of spellings for what I think is ARPEGE... ? It's amazing how many different spellings turn up! 

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
    3 minutes ago, Mr Brown said:

    What date was this for? 

    Day 6 12z UKMO

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
    4 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

    This GFS run looks better than the 6z and that ended pretty well so no complaints as yet

    77848232-274E-4815-96CB-B99FCB8CDF8A.png

    Its the flatter of the 2 runs & still pulls a good Northerly around 180

    So UKMO would be a snow event plus a Northerly / NE flow after-

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    Posted
  • Location: Duddingston, Edinburgh
  • Location: Duddingston, Edinburgh
    36 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

    Well said!  some of these charts are 10-12 days away and could be vastly different come tomorrow 

    They've been 10-12 days away since the turn of the year ... groundhog day

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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

    @Kirkcaldyweather

     

    Fair point and no probs.  I’m just so surprised at the ‘tenacity’ of the slug.  Roll on any upgrades and changes......they are just a month late from mpov!  ?

    Chances are there and increasing no doubt...steady as she goes

     

     BFTP

    Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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    Posted
  • Location: Somerset.
  • Location: Somerset.
    19 minutes ago, EastAnglian said:

    I am no expert just have a long and painful experience of model watching. The absolute maximum would be 5 days but I would say 2/3 was safer. If you look at other forecasts on TV, for example, take note of how far they are going ahead that will give you an idea of how confident the professionals are. Basically, if it can go wrong it will.

    Might go right this time with all the signals looking strong. Perhaps we will start to see a few upgrades shortly now it’s moving into the reliable.

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    Huge change on the GFS 12 hrs run. The mothership as in the PV lobe over Canada is unable at T186 hrs to bring supplies to the low to the nw . This should stop too much deepening with a better tilt to the jet .

    Nice ridge to the north, surely even the GFS can’t ruin it now .

    Edited by nick sussex
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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
    4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

    Stonker incoming!

    image.thumb.png.3135caf918b55a40edf5e5c1e9df3d3c.png

    (Atlantic) It’ll probably come through but I sense a much more slidergate scenario coming

     

    BFTP

    Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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    Posted
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
    6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    Its the flatter of the 2 runs & still pulls a good Northerly around 180

    So UKMO would be a snow event plus a Northerly / NE flow after-

    Yes, Steve,the UKMO run heading for a snow event. GFS a bit warmer and slightly more progressive in its run up to 144t.. UKMO stays with its solid out puts.

     C

    Edited by carinthian
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    Message added by Paul

    Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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