Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Snow?
Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

Message added by Paul

Recommended Posts

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

image.thumb.png.41844cf9d005e0c4ade96340cb298706.png

100% set of the winter 

  • Like 6
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

image.thumb.png.41844cf9d005e0c4ade96340cb298706.png

:yahoo:

Lol  look at the one that hits the -15   😂

  • Like 6
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Can see the snow row starting to get interesting  

image.thumb.png.3946075c0e9b8af4a13fabbd2b174d28.png

  • Like 7
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, weirpig said:

Lol  look at the one that hits the -15   😂

Mind you you wonder wrt urban heat effect how one in london could be -5c in the day, must give a right dumping first.

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

Hopefully nicely aligned to give Edinburgh a pasting ⛄

Very likely, especially for you in Penicuik. The north definitely looks in the best position for snow at the moment, but I'm not getting too excited until these charts fall below 100h

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 well well well it is about time the model outputs showed us some interesting charts  it is also interesting regarding the ECMWF 46 day  output how ever I will firmly keep my feet glued to the ground on till the Met office come on board 

  • Like 1
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Are we on the cusp of a special wintry period?

It's certainly starting to look that way when you look at ALL of the medium and long range models and yes, nothing is a given and even in my head I'm thinking "no it won't happen, something will scupper it, probably a short wave at the base of Greenland or something" but actually, it's starting to look a bit good isn't it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Big Dave said:

And there's the kiss of death, commentators curse, whatever you want to call it! 😀

Hahaha I did just make a joke to a friend that now I'm on board with extended cold that the models would implode and show full raging zonality.. So if that does happen, I'm so sorry!

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The present 6z output reminds me of the outsputs prior to last years freeze. Bitter cold was coming from all directions

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, syed2878 said:

 well well well it is about time the model outputs showed us some interesting charts  it is also interesting regarding the ECMWF 46 day  output how ever I will firmly keep my feet glued to the ground on till the Met office come on board 

Yes Syed as you say the models and outlooks seem to be swinging the way of us coldies for something that could be quite special but like you I want to see the ultra cautious met office come out with an all singing and all dancing outlook rather than the current mealy mouthed nod to possible wintriness before I put the flags out.

Edited by Broadmayne blizzard
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, weirpig said:

And the Para ends  well like this.  atlatic undercutting deep cold in situ.  just got to get it to 0h now.

image.thumb.png.cb55830e5716d6df6af84bbb1b20f406.png

Starting to look like WeatherBELL's Pioneer model

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

06z swingometers

Quite interesting, a lot of uncertainty around 20th January. Cold zonality remains a favourite but some more varied options are in there. P17 is keen to bring in the cold early. 

image.thumb.png.f94f91f31f4e29cc1a4fe129489eabfd.pngimage.thumb.png.e3ec256c8fc421b7907c4ac821bae7a4.png 

Later on around January 25th there are more cold Northerlies / easterlies in the ensemble set which highlights the improvements in synoptics. P16 is lining up a prolonged cold spell

image.thumb.png.b7e175b32b2af9cc41ad5b6e33c0c8bf.pngimage.thumb.png.5a8da53fbbacce945be9e467c0a0f01a.png 

Globally the temperature anomaly picture remains similar to previous days at T168, mainly being a very cold Canada and Greenland so its very easy to see why the period of more Atlantic dominated weather is cold.

image.thumb.png.067ec602887ea8416f0335a39f095258.png

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Due South said:

Starting to look like WeatherBELL's Pioneer model

Lets hope weatherbell's model is pioneering in the art form of long range accuracy then.

Edited by feb1991blizzard

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If carlsberg did nwp then ........

anyway, the clusters are pretty astonishing and the nceps ops now follow suit convincingly. Whether we see it all manifest with systems headed nw/we into the trough or the pattern backs west to keep us in the cold with no fronts making headway across the uk who knows

The end of the para is interesting as it shows a west based neg NAO setting up beyond the run ...... no reason to take it seriously at that range but we would generally not expect a cold period to just be cold for weeks without any spell where the pattern relented for a few days before re establishing ....... perhaps behpyond this run shows Exeter’s thoughts re those less cold interludes being possible 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Yes Syed as you say the models and outlooks seem to be swinging the way of us coldies for something that could quite special but like you I want to the the ultra cautious met office come out with an all singing and all dancing outlook rather than the current mealy mouthed nod to possible wintriness before I put the flags out.

Due to the quickly developing models churning out colder and colder solutions, they will sit a little more on the fence to not start causing any "panic" until absolutely sure and nearer the time it actually is gonna happen and then they will commit

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, weirpig said:

And the Para ends  well like this.  atlatic undercutting deep cold in situ.  just got to get it to 0h now.

image.thumb.png.cb55830e5716d6df6af84bbb1b20f406.png

Risky though 😬 wouldn’t take much for us to be on the wrong side of that mild/cold boundary 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes, still wondering about the 30 dayer caveat BA.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...