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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


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Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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So a rather long post ( Will also clip into the winter forecast thread ) However just an update on saturdays post, a large debate around models - & I took the day 6 UKMO & GFS charts to c

I assume the overnight ECM has (temporarily at least) put an end to the glass half empty stuff from some posters yesterday. I'm sure the next variation in op run will bring them back out - but if you

It's all good folks - we are about to get slammed ? Think March 2013 imprinted on the middle of winter - what's not to love ! The slider solutions are dialled in as the wave guide changes, N

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16 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Following on from Dave’s post earlier, despite several weeks of anticyclonic conditions, I am still to see a good frost!  the ground is fairly dry but certainly not particularly cold.  The old fashioned frigid spells tended to follow a cold dry period with frosts/fog.  This one looks like it won’t (if the trough sinks as currently advertised). So if conditions are marginal for snowfall then settling will be probably be an issue. Getting an early snowfall on the ground would be very helpful. MWB’s post re the eps members is helpful as it seems more colder members beginning to show their hand - caution on this as the entire suite could be skewed by that upper ridging towards Iceland sharpening the cyclonic flow to be more continental. 

I was about to say the complete opposite blue!!we have had no rain for about 3 week in this part of the midlands and we have had a number of frosts!!the ground is bone dry and cold!!once the snow sets in here conditions should be primed for settling!!ive had plenty of times where the temperatures have been mild in the run up to a snow event and its not been an issue so fingers crossed!

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Better run coming earlier on I would say, the Jet stream is about 100 miles south of the 0z,  that might help shallow out any sliders which would be a good thing.

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4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Better run coming earlier on I would say, the Jet stream is about 100 miles south of the 0z,  that might help shallow out any sliders which would be a good thing.

Weird cos the low seems further north and slightly deeper i think!!although it looks better over the uk!

 

Actually slightly further south but deeper!

Edited by shaky
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Not happening or doesnt look like it will slide as per ecm!!just my opinion but i think gfs will shall be right about the slider and we wont get anything from it!!or a middle ground could happen!

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7 minutes ago, shaky said:

Weird cos the low seems further north and slightly deeper i think!!although it looks better over the uk!

Tbf..we are at a base point to where looking a macroscale-is highly favoured than micro ie wedge deviation..cell placements..trough alingment..

And take scope of the larger nor-hem synoptics.

Then pull bk to these minimal dynamics as we gain...and come into more reliable time scales...

Or you'll give yaself a headache!!!!

Edited by tight isobar
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Think it’s probably unwise to second guess each frame for now, each frame is coming as a surprise at the moment. Time to watch it evolve for a few frames I’d say! 

Edited by karlos1983
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8 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Think it’s probably unwise to second guess each frame for now, each frame is coming as a surprise at the moment. Time to watch it evolve for a few frames I’d say! 

That's why I've switched over to the HGT500 charts...there's less to get bogged-down with, but the overall picture stays clear?

image.thumb.png.2371d38b1473751adbc935dcea67a8ff.png

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Out to day 9 and although the low at day 6 is handled differently the GFS and Euro are very similar by day 9 albeit GFS has a stronger low and so larger warm sector. A potential snow event to watch however.

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3 minutes ago, shaky said:

Not happening or doesnt look like it will slide as per ecm!!just my opinion but i think gfs will shall be right about the slider and we wont get anything from it!!or a middle ground could happen!

Appears to be discrepancies between the models with regards to position of lows and ridges over Atlantic and towards UK from mid-week.

00z EC and UKMO build a 'wedge' of high pressure ahead of the low south of Greenland at (T+144) 00z Thursday, this high slows and disrupts the low to the west on EC thereafter, as I suspect UKMO would if it showed day 8. We then see another low move in from the SW beneath that first low stalling near southern Greenland - the low to the south then heading towards NW of UK before it 'dumbells' to the NW and associated fronts push east next weekend and bump into cold air bringing frontal snow risk.

However, the 06z GFS shows that low south of Greenland early Thursday continuing to track east over the UK rather than held back to the west, then a transitory ridge between that low and next low moving in from the west allows cold air to spread south over the UK settling up potential for frontal snow ahead of next low too.

Either way we get there (Euros or GFS route), there looks to be disruption of lows and associated fronts moving in from the west next weekend as they bump into cold air and shallow ridging over and east of the UK.

But lots to be resolved still with the MSLP past day 6 methinks

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The extremely deep LP (950) west of Iceland that gfs 6z "invented" is a big game/pattern changer. It will lead to a quite snowy Northwesterly initially and after this the High will settle in a good position mid Atlantic leading to a proper Easterly. Give me this run as it is and I'm happy. Best run this winter. 

Edited by Empire Of Snow
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What an evolution..something 4 all..

As we swing between..cold airmasses..

Even the rammped nw jet..aiding things..

CRACKING STUFF...

Day 2 day white out conditions..

If its even near the money...

gfsnh-5-312.png

gfsnh-0-312.png

Edited by tight isobar
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