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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


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Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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So a rather long post ( Will also clip into the winter forecast thread ) However just an update on saturdays post, a large debate around models - & I took the day 6 UKMO & GFS charts to c

I assume the overnight ECM has (temporarily at least) put an end to the glass half empty stuff from some posters yesterday. I'm sure the next variation in op run will bring them back out - but if you

It's all good folks - we are about to get slammed ? Think March 2013 imprinted on the middle of winter - what's not to love ! The slider solutions are dialled in as the wave guide changes, N

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1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

You seem a bit glass half full Fred........would have expected you to be a little excited by the weeks ahead .....

No Nick I think this winter is blown as a cold un, late wintrer/Spring may produce, I do not see any HLB this month into early Feb (as most anticipate) and I think we’ll be generally scuppered this winter.....I don’t think we’ll get the response that is anticipated.  Yes some wintryness beckons.....and hopefully some decent stuff for some....but generally....we slip away.  I have had the feeling and posted recently the ‘too east’ set up......I fear that scenario

 

 BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Mean V mean 138/144

18z on the left brings deeper cold in at 144 further west & more amplified ( note the higher heights towards Iceland )

B96CCCA5-401C-43A7-837B-E2017525F4A1.thumb.png.a11ac6bae294e5d2a8263ea65b22e4a1.pngF15EE3B9-7C60-456F-A525-31B64D30E669.thumb.png.e65d53f70ded58bc78968170ddd70e01.png

 

Initially doesn’t this seem a bit December 2017 sequels with sliders NW SE alignment and would the fact that it is later in the season means temps will be colder?

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1 minute ago, weirpig said:

short ensembles   some belters in there at such a short range

image.thumb.png.f2143e5745d994281c45ada947064eb0.png

Word of caution is that the op and control are both in the mildest 5 runs. Fv3 is running behind but just worth noting for those keen on reverse psychology 

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5 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

No Nick I think this winter is blown as a cold un, late wintrer/Spring may produce, I do not see any HLB this month into early Feb (as most anticipate) and I think we’ll be generally scuppered this winter.....I don’t think we’ll get the response that is anticipated.  Yes some wintryness beckons.....and hopefully some decent stuff for some....but generally....we slip away.  I have had the feeling and posted recently the ‘too east’ set up......I fear that scenario

 

 BFTP

I hope late month will change your thoughts!

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10 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Many GFS ensembles (18z) have backed the slider further West keeping us on the cold side and reintroducing polar flow behind.

The Op was extremely progressive when matched with suite.

Could be a very big day tomorrow

Yes, I think so too, GFS to join  the others at T144, well will be T132 tomorrow, fires the starting pistol on a period of weather during which cold is the form horse throughout, what we've been waiting for - I haven't seen a single frozen thing fall from the sky this winter, that I hope will change.  

What we need to see, GFS push the ridge up <T144, continued support for wedges in the slightly longer term.  Also would be nice to see the trough into Europe push the Azores high west a bit more.  

Edited by Mike Poole
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26 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Concerning that yesterday seemed to be firming up on proper cold setting in days 11 to 13 but today we are starting to see this being delayed again. Never a good sign. 

Only if you read too much into operational run. It's worth reiterating that at this range the op runs will not be picking up on anything close to a final solution 10 days out. At this range you need to focus more on ensemble means and clusters. Ensemble means consistently showing 850 temps of -5 with more cluster around or below -5 than there are above 0. So, overall mean is dragged up by smaller number of runs that are substantially above the mean compared to the larger number just below. IIRC, leading into last February cold spell, means we're initially showing at around -5 and then trended down as we got closer. 

As many have mentioned, we're probably looking at around 21st or so for the proper onset of a colder regime. Some runs will show it before, some after, but there is good agreement on the trend.

Use the op runs to look for cold prior to that by all means, but I see it as window dressing prior to the main event...

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P6 indicates what could happen if those NW > SE moving lows pull in enough colder air from the NE / E , UK could need digging out if all falls into place but as I said earlier lots more runs before exact details 

tempresult_bpa6.thumb.gif.988b0e8c0d40b93f84ddf2cb6931e9e1.giftempresult_zlj0.thumb.gif.e6555806b4dcd93016513638b6c2ab11.giftempresult_lmm7.thumb.gif.68b26ba84f7b0dd5b672bc4c4906243e.gif  

will update in a minute when they have finished rolling out / if any more GEFS catch my eye 

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3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, I think so too, GFS to join  the others at T144, well will be T132 tomorrow, fires the starting pistol on a period of weather during which cold is the form horse throughout, what we've been waiting for - I haven't seen a single frozen thing fall from the sky this winter, that I hope will change.  

What we need to see, GFS push the ridge up <T144, continued support for wedges in the slightly longer term.  Also would be nice to see the trough into Europe push the Azores high west a bit more.  

18z GEFS mean has Azores well and truly displaced in deep FI

gensnh-21-1-288.png

Other than ECM ensemble charts I think running through GFS suite is best evidence yet  a cold spell is on the way.

Just details and exact timing to be sorted - assuming we don't fall off a cliff tomorrow

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I think it’s safe to say, those in the north will be satisfied with a polar maritime feed, those in the south not so. Given how this winter has gone so far, I think we need a NE/E flow to make everyone happy. Looking at the EC46, A NE/E flow should be popping up more often on the gfs and it’s ens in the coming days. We shall see. 

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GFS Para FV3 better wedge alignment and heights up to Iceland compared to 18z GFS at 144 onwards although @Mucka‘s point about the slider well made.

AE388C64-8B61-41DF-878E-5F4450AD8B43.thumb.png.8ac5c14fa63f1331a524aab15f604aba.pngFF14C10B-B9F9-40C6-92A9-2CFB6AAB6122.thumb.png.4eb6ca2ceb1c12407b8d5ddab75bc3b6.png

Then by next Friday, Para advecting continental cold Eastwards whilst GFS has us in significantly warmer uppers (although unsure quite how cold the Para gets as it’s stalled on Meteociel again).

7B8BF360-E1E9-4674-A4F4-88A89343F968.thumb.png.6386b584b67210db43722ebda7343174.pngFB005D9E-4A95-4922-94FD-0EF83302188B.thumb.png.f7ebbd54130378114eb643a30e9fdee2.png

 

 

 

Edited by supernova
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2 minutes ago, weirpig said:

central england ensembles   a few now starting to breech the -10 line  op and control very much on the mild side a couple of times during the run

image.thumb.png.5134b61ffe4c23d218254ed56b00a9de.png

Interesting how the Op and control stick out like sore thumbs 18th to 20th

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2 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Interesting how the Op and control stick out like sore thumbs 18th to 20th

I guess its the flow  The op and the control dont seem to slide the atlantic under and bring it on a more westerly route as opposed to a more north westerly?.  

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